Atlanta Braves Mid-Season Prospect Reports, Part 2

Last week, we went through the seasonal reports for the first seven of our pre-season Top 20.  It should be noted that these reports are not small sample-sized snippets, but represent most of the season’s work, as each league is not close to wrapping up for the year.

As such, the Braves are relying on their own reports at this time to make some final promotions around the farm system to see how certain players handle a higher level for a few games.

This report will involve most of the middle group of our pre-season Top 20.  In the next installment to come, we will discuss the rest of the 20, but then add one additional look at a number of players that have either jumped up and surprised us this season… or that were acquired during the year that we feel are especially noteworthy.

Next: The Few, the Proud, ... The Hitters

Baseball bats in the dugout before the game between the Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

8. Braxton Davidson

The Good:

Braxton was pushed in his first full season after being drafted in 2014, placing him in Rome as an 18 year-old (he turned 19 on June 18th). In Rome, Davidson has shown what you would expect from a big power guy, lots of walks, big power, and lots of strikeouts. The latter can be more acceptable with the presence of the first two.

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Davidson has a tremendous batting eye, though in watching him, he may be just a bit timid early in the count as he doesn’t often seem to go after the first pitch. He has walked at a tremendous 18.5% rate this season, but letting the pitcher get a pitch or two into the at bat before swinging also tends to lead to a high K rate, and he’s certainly showing that as well with a 27.1% strikeout rate.

For perspective, that’s roughly the same rate that Justin Upton struck out at last season with the Braves. Davidson’s power is truly dynamic. When he gets the meat of the bat on the ball, it simply explodes off of his bat. One thing that has really impressed me in a few viewings is the huge strides in his defense that Braxton has made. The reviews coming into the season were that he was a 1B-only profile most likely, but he’s not only shown good range in right field, but he has a cannon of an arm that could play very well in right field.

The Not-So-Good:

We’ll get one out of the way right away – Braxton is not fast on the bases. For all the better range he’s shown this year, he’s about as dragging a base runner as one can be. He’s got 20 doubles on the season, but with even average speed, he could have turned 2-3 of those into triples. Of course, that tells you how hard he hits the ball that with his speed, he’s still putting up 20 doubles!

Braxton has also let the ball get too deep into the zone many times, and we’ve noticed in the last few weeks that he’s out in front of the ball more instead of letting it get into him. Interestingly, that’s also coincided with a spike in his batting average, getting over the .250 mark briefly.

The Stats:

• Rome (A, 105 games, 421 PA):  .243/.392/.374/.766.  wRC+ 126.  18.5% BB, 27.1% K, 8 HR, 37 RBI

TRENDING:

Davidson may get a sniff of Carolina this year, but he certainly has earned the promotion for next season, even though he’ll be just 19 on opening day there next year. If you’re wanting a comp, think Adam Dunn.  Braxton may not have that level of power upside, but he could have similar walk/strike out rates along with a little better batting average to compensate for their difference in power.

Next: Conversion Results in a Step Up

9. Jason Hursh

The Good:

It was roughly when TomahawkTake was preparing a piece for him that Jason Hursh had one of the best 2 weeks of his season:  a 3-start stretch where he displayed what he could be when he’s on his game, moving the ball around the bottom of the zone with good late sinking break on all of his pitches and the ability to throw a straight fastball high in the zone that completely throws batters off.

The Not-So-Good:

Those things only happened in about 3 starts this season. Otherwise, it’s been brutal. He’s been above a 5 ERA the entire season, not dipping below the whole year so far. While he’s actually ticked up his K rate to 15.6% after usually being around 13-13.5%, his walk rate is up to 9.3%, and hitters are hitting .331 on him. Fangraphs gives him a FIP of 3.72, but the eye test says that the hits aren’t just a sign of bad luck or poor defense. Hursh is getting hit hard, albeit not out of the park often as usual, but balls are screaming off the bat when you watch a bad display.

As a direct result, the Braves have made the decision:  moving Hursh to a bullpen role.  In doing so, this allows him to ignore his lesser pitch offerings and concentrate on what he’s good at:  that heavy fastball and slider combination with peak speeds in the upper 90’s.

So while this is the ‘Not So Good’ section, the results of Hursh-to-the-pen have actually been good – good enough to send him to AAA.  Let’s see how that’s worked:

The Stats:

• Gwinnett (AAA, 4 relief appearances):  5.2 innings, ERA 0.00.  0.53 WHIP.  2 hits, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts.
• Mississippi (AA, 15 starts):   WHIP 1.85, opponent average .338, ERA 5.63.  Pitched into the 6th inning or later just 7 times.
• Mississippi (AA, 9 relief appearances):  12 innings, 11 hits, 3 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 9 K.  1.16 WHIP, 2.25 ERA.

TRENDING:

Hursh is only 5 days older than Mike Foltynewicz, but the two are on very different paths right now. At times, Hursh certainly flashed the stuff to make you think he could be a tremendous Derek Lowe type of innings eater sinker baller, but don’t forget that Lowe had a very good run in the bullpen, and it appears that the Braves have decided that Hursh it that kind of pitcher at this point.  So far, so good at AAA, and he could get a chance to see this hard sinker/late-breaking slider combo next Spring, but we’ll need more time to see if his control is maintained in that role.

Next: Manny Happy Returns?

Aug 14, 2015; Mississippi Braves’ Rio Ruiz prior to a game vs. the Mobile Bay Bears. Photo Credit: Alan Carpenter, TomahawkTake.com

11. Rio Ruiz

The Good:

Getting out of April and May has been good for Ruiz. After a horrible start, Ruiz has been one of the best hitters in Mississippi at only 21 years old. Interestingly, it was right around his birthday in late May that things began to turn around for Ruiz. He’s shown a very solid eye, walking at a 13.8% clip while also keeping his strikeout rate a respectable 18.4% Ruiz has also shown some solid hands at third base, if not much for range.

The Not-So-Good:

After that June/July flurry got his average up to something respectable, Ruiz has pretty well tanked again, despite looking better at the plate in general – more comfortable, getting better bat location on the ball, and finally his BABIP has turned around some, so the luck factor has backed out of the equation. Some guys simply take a bit to adjust to a new level, and while Ruiz’s start was about as bad as it could have been, he’s rebounded somewhat, and a guy his age in AA is no small feat.

There are concerns about his fielding as well.  In the game in which the above photo was taken, Mobile ripped three doubles down the third base line.  Ruiz didn’t even react.  On another play, a single was hit between third and short.  He didn’t move.  Ruiz later made an excellent short-hop pick on a ball hit directly at him, but he simply appears to have little or no ‘first step’ reaction, which speaks poorly of any kind of positional range.  15 errors in 108 games isn’t actually that egregious for AA, but it also suggests that he’s not nearly an elite at the position, either.

As it is, though, when Ruiz was acquired in mid-January (via the Astros in the Evan Gattis trade), Braves’ fans were practically celebrating his arrival.  Finally!  A genuine third base prospect!   Kyle Kubitza was turned loose the week before; Edward Salcedo was … just bad at the position in all respects; and all we had to look forward to was Chris Johnson for the foreseeable future.

The question was whether Ruiz’ bat would actually work above A-ball.  While the jury still seems to be out on that verdict, the Braves have made a call:  it’s Hector Olivera.  As a result, it would appear that Ruiz is going to be left with the chore of proving himself worthy enough to be traded to a team with a need at the hot corner, for the best he can now hope for in a Braves’ uniform is that he makes AAA and becomes the call-up backup guy in case of an Olivera injury (but even that assumes he could beat out Adonis Garcia for that role).

Stats:

• Mississippi (AA, 108 games):  .218/.326/.278/.604.  13.6% BB, 20% K, 2 HR, 77 wRC+

TRENDING:

In stark contrast to the way things looked in January, Rio Ruiz now has no path to the majors with Atlanta.  It will be up to him to determine how far he can go – whether he can break out as the hitter that teams expect to see at this position, and then whether his glove can play well enough to avoid being a liability.  Those are not tall demands of a genuine prospect, but right now, Ruiz is showing neither to the degree necessary to progress.  Expect him to start again at AA in 2016.

Next: Young Lefty

Baseball on the pitchers mound before the game between the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

12. Ricardo Sanchez

The Good:

The stuff is just sick to watch (and I mean sick in a very, very good way). It’s hard to look away, yet at the same time, when he’s been on, you feel terrible for the batters in the box against his stuff.

The Not-So-Good:

It is difficult to measure players of this age, and thus we were wary of putting Sanchez this high on the list as he was 17 when he started the season with Rome. He’s got tremendous stuff from the left hand side, but an 18 year-old with stuff without polish could face tough times in full season ball, and he has.

Sanchez’s walk rate is 11.7% while he’s striking out only 17.2%. The walk rate is too high, but only barely so if he’s striking out 25% of the guys he’s facing, but that strikeout rate is an indication of the trouble he’s had locating his pitches this year. He seems to stay in the zone, but he often misses his catcher’s target within the zone, often leading to balls being called, even if the pitch caught the plate.

Stats:

• Rome (A, 10 starts).  40 innings, 5.45 ERA, 7 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 6 HBP, 2 WP, 5 Balks, 37 hits.

TRENDING:

Sanchez is young, and any viewing of a start of his will show you the dynamic stuff he has.  We’d like to have seen him finish the season strong in Rome and start 2016 there as well with an eye to Carolina quickly if he dominates in Rome. Right now, he needs to work to miss more bats with that solid low-zone stuff.

Alas, that dream of a strong finish was stopped short:  Sanchez was placed on the disabled list on July 14th, and has not been activated since then.  He also didn’t pitch during the entire month of May (tight calf sprain).  No word on the cause of this latest hiatus, though baseballamerica pointed out that it came after an 11 walk burst in his last 3 starts over 12 innings.

Next: Has Jamaal Charles Lost a Step?

Atlanta Braves second baseman

Jace Peterson

(8) in the field against the Miami Marlins in the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

13. Jace Peterson

The Good:

Hard not to note that the guy has been one of the best defensive second baseman in the game this year. He’s also been more than able with the bat, and though he has not looked good stealing bases, he’s used his speed well in hit-and-run plays and when taking an extra base.

Jace is also second-base in the National League in fangraphs’ “Clutch” rating, which speaks directly to his uncanny performance with runners on base this season.  Other nice numbers to support that:  .333 average in “High leverage” situations; .313 batting with runners on base; .302 with runners in scoring position.

The Not-So-Good:

Peterson’s sub 50% success rate in stealing bases is concerning considering his better-than-average speed (grade 50). The could be something to do with the manager/game play style of the Braves and not purely on his shoulders, but Peterson has only stolen 8 bases in 17 attempts this year so far.

Jace had a poor July (.174), but better August (.264) so far.  His low-ish OBA (.309) seems to be tied to his batting average.  His minor league history suggests these numbers could come up over time.

Peterson has been lacking power as well, but that’s really nitpicking on a pretty tremendous rookie year.

Stats:

• Atlanta (111 games):  .245/.309/.332/.641.  9.8% BB, 19.8% K rates.

TRENDING:

Peterson’s tremendous play at 2B allowed the club to reconsider the future home for its preseason #1 prospect, Jose Peraza.  Peterson could use some more steady use of his solid contact skills and perhaps use his speed in some bunt hits to get himself on base. The Braves could have their answer at second base for at least the short-term, if not long-term!

Next: From Suspension to Closer

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher

Arodys Vizcaino

(38) pitches during the of the ninth inning of the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves won the game 6-2. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

14. Arodys Vizcaino

The Good:

Upon his return, the fastball and slider have looked excellent. He’s had rare hiccups in the minor leagues, but he’s done well pitching around them. His control – which had been a chief concern – seems to be hanging in there.

Now in the majors, Vizcaino could be counted on strongly as the team reconfigures the bullpen after Jason Grilli‘s tragic injury.  He has 3 saves now.

The Not So Good:

Vizcaino is still just getting to the major leagues now because he served an 80-game suspension with the league for using a performance enhancing drug. While the baseball numbers on the field look great, he’s shown some struggles with the mental side of the game to get caught doing what he was doing.

Stats:

• Atlanta (18 games, 17 innings):  0.54 ERA, 8.64 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 3 saves.  Oppo avg: .172.

TRENDING:

At home in the bullpen, Vizcaino could be a big part of the bullpen going forward, though he’s already getting into his arbitration years due to injuries and being on the major league DL for his injuries. He’ll need to continue to spark and spark fast so the Braves feel they can count on him going forward.

That’s a good place to stop for now – look for the next set of prospect reports coming up soon.

Next: Want some follow-up: Minor League Monday!