Atlanta Braves Morning Chop…Freeman; I Bet Not
Jun 6, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) slams his bat on the ground after a fly out against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the seventh inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves midseason betting report
We’re halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October’s participants have been identified. MLB’s 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year’s All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let’s dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team’s 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team’s first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Atlanta Braves
Vegas projection: 73.5 wins
My projection: 70 wins
Current record/pace: 42-47 (76-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 75.2 wins
What has gone right: Despite shedding four of their top six offensive producers last season, as well as three pitchers with a total of 8.0 WAR (including Craig Kimbrel on the eve of Opening Day), the Braves ended the first half of their 2015 schedule on a pace to win more games (80) than they won last year (79).
[ Editor’s note: This is the publicly-available portion of an ESPN Insider story about how the betting lines are doing for each MLB team at the half-way point in the season. I have brought this in to ponder on a couple of topics:
1. Betting on baseball is just stupid. You have no idea from one day to the next who’s even going to be available on a team, who will be playing, or how well they will do. One pitch can literally turn wins into losses and vice versa. One trade can change the progress of a season. There’s just too many variables in play.
2. If MLB tolerates gambling on their sport… and posts like this one prove they do… then you have to wonder how many players could be involved in gambling. Sure, Pete Rose is the poster child for this topic, but when you combine top athletes, money, and opportunity… well, steroids were supposed to be out of the sport, too, right? ]
Next: Nothing But Hitters