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Atlanta Braves Draft Status: Bigger Names Unsigned

By Alan Carpenter

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Jun 10, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; The sun sets as the Atlanta Braves play the San Diego Padres in the sixth inning of their game at Turner Field. The Braves won 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Questions and Answers

Kolby Allard isn’t signed…  How come?

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Word on draft day was that he would be inclined to sign with Atlanta – and there have been discussions toward that end.  But note that San Clemente High School in California is in one of the few school districts on the planet that’s still in session – through the end of this week.  As a result, both Allard and teammate Lucas Herbert are in the midst of final exams in an attempt to graduate.  Given the monies they are about to come into, that seems to be a pedantic task, but it’s still important, and thus contract negotiations can certainly wait another week or so.

That said, battery buddy Herbert has signed – for the slot value of $1.125 million.  Sometimes the negotiations are easier if both sides are happy with the number provided… which should give one pause about Allard’s situation.  More on that in a bit.

What about Soroka… the second pick?

Guess what:  his high school actually continues all the way through June 26th!  So the same thought applies as he’s still got another week to slog through in his high schooling.

Could there be some issues with signing some of these guys?

It’s possible for a couple of them… and let me first say that everything in this answer is going to be speculation.  I find it interesting that Atlanta over-spent a bit ($30K) to get Josh Graham signed up, given that he’s a college pitcher.  Usually they come in at or below slot values.

> Allard.  Consensus was that he was the best HS pitcher in the draft so it is possible that his representatives might wish to play a bit of hardball to push his number up towards top-ten money (again: that’s speculation).  The trouble here is that the Braves don’t have much room to play around here.

There’s a 5% buffer that teams have before incurring penalties that result in lost draft picks.  Even in that 5% window, there’s a 75% tax on the overage amount.

So the absolute maximum the Braves can spend in total bonuses for those first 10 draftees is $534,205 above a total allocation of $10,684,100… that comes to $11,218,305… to avoid the draft-pick hammer penalty.  So if Allard’s “people” want to demand $3.2 million or more (the value of the 10th pick), something else has to give.

The question Allard will have to answer for himself is this:  can I beat the 14th pick and do I want to risk 3 years in college to find out?  My guess is that his risk is too great and he will sign… perhaps for around $3,000,000.

How high could Atlanta go for Allard?  Given what’s already been spent… around $3.4 million (updated).  Everybody else would have to come in exactly on slot or less.  The Braves would owe a penalty on the $534K overage, but that’s part of the negotiation.

First round picks do take some time, though:  as of this writing, only 10 of 42 (counting the extra pick categories) have inked deals.

> Guardado.  Since Anthony Guardado was barely ranked by the pundits, you’d think this would be an easy sign… maybe even below the slot value.  And they may still be the case.  It’s also possible that he will want more to forgo his commitment to Long Beach State, a perennial hot-bed of college baseball that might develop him into first-round money in a couple of years.

The Braves are likely betting on the ‘easy sign’ part.  But note this quirk in the slotting rules:  if Guardado doesn’t sign, it’s not like Atlanta gets that money to spend elsewhere:  they lose the slot and they gain nothing… just as if he ends up signing for the $656,300 pick value.

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