Atlanta Braves: Victor Mateo 3-Start Review for the Mississippi Braves
Victor Mateo
This year, Victor Mateo has made quite a splash at AA Mississippi. As a minor league free agent, signed away from Tampa Bay in the offseason, there wasn’t a lot of expectation on Mateo.
He’d been a “meh” starter before, but he has been a tremendous asset to the M-Braves rotation. I looked at three starts for Mateo – May 15th against Mobile, May 20th against Pensacola, and May 25th against Jacksonville.
I’ll review each game on each page as you go through, with a final review at the end.
Hit “Next” to continue!
May 15 vs. Mobile: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K
First Inning
Sean Jamieson led off the game and was quickly to a 3-0 count before walking on 5 pitches. Center fielder Socrates Brito followed Jamieson, and struck out on three pitches to help Mateo’s case.
Former Brave Brandon Drury was up next, and he towered the first pitch to the warning track in left field. Mateo finally looked to first for the first time with Rudy Flores at the plate after Jameison was running on a foul ball by Brito and on Drury’s fly out.
Mateo really pounds the zone, which makes the opening walk all that more surprising.
In the Flores at bat, Mateo threw to first three times while only throwing two pitches to Flores, which likely saved him a run as Flores lifted a soft fly to center that fell in front of Matt Lipka in center, but Lipka’s throw and the late start of Jamieson held Jamieson at third on a play that often would have scored a run.
Right fielder Zach Borenstein fouled off some solid pitches before popping out to shortstop for the third out.
Second Inning
Former Brave, Matt Pagnozzi led off the second inning with a strikeout on a check swing on a Mateo slider that crossed Pagnozzi up.
Right fielder Alex Glenn followed and took two strikes to start the at bat before eventually popping out to second base. Raul Navarro bunted for a hit off of Mateo and had perfect placement between Mateo and third baseman Kevin Ahrens.
Opposing pitcher A.J. Schugel followed Navarro and drew the 2nd and 3rd balls of the inning with a patient at bat before singling up the middle. That brought up the top of the order and Jamieson. On the third pitch of the at bat, Mateo sawed off Jamieson inside and he popped out to first base.
Third Inning
Brito took an 0-2 pitch to center field to fly out for the first out of the third. Mateo continued to pound the zone with Brandon Drury, who was playing 2B to get to the majors quicker. He had Drury 0-2 on three pitches before an inside pitch got away from him, and Drury was plunked on the left arm.
A smart play by Seth Loman got a groundout at first base as Loman picked up the ball before it could go foul and tagged the bag, but Drury was moving on the play, so there was no chance to get him at second.
Borenstein followed with a quick groundout to first, and Mateo was out of the inning with the only ball out of the strike zone being the HBP with Drury.
Fourth Inning
Pagnozzi led off his second inning of the game to start the fourth, and Mateo started off by buzzing him up and in and then missing three more times for a four-pitch walk.
Glenn then lined back to Mateo on the second pitch of the at bat, and Mateo was able to double Pagnozzi off of first for the double play.
Mateo shook off the control issues of the early inning after that play and attacked Navarro with a good sequence of low soft, hard in, breaking low and outside (fouled off), and just off the plate inside before getting Navarro to pop out to left.
Fifth Inning
Schugel had another good at bat before grounding out to third and Jamieson quickly popped out to second for a quick start to the fifth inning. Brito fouled off two pitches before sitting on a very close third pitch that got called a ball. Mateo came right back at Brito getting another foul and finally striking out Brito on the 5th pitch of the at bat.
Sixth Inning
The Mississippi offense gave Mateo a long break with a 5-run bottom of the 5th inning. Mateo came out rusty to start the sixth, as is common for a pitcher after a long layoff like that, going to 3-0 on Drury before getting the count full and getting Drury to fly out to center field.
Mississippi had Flores shifted toward right field, and he took the first pitch on the ground just to the shortstop’s right for a single. Mateo came back with a nice pitch outside that Borenstein rolled over to third and the M-Braves turned into a nice 5-4-3 double play.
Seventh Inning
Mateo again led off the inning with a walk, his third such inning of the game. Glenn followed with a single just out of the reach of Corban Joseph at second base.
Raul Navarro popped out to third after a long at bat where Mateo didn’t give up a single ball in the at bat. He then got pinch hitter Mitch Haniger to fly out to short right to keep the runner on second from tagging up. Mateo then got Jamieson to ground out to short to close the seventh and end his night.
May 20th vs. Pensacola – 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K
First Inning
Mateo led off the game against Beau Amaral of Pensacola with a strike and pounded the edges of the zone the first three pitches before striking out Amaral on a nice changeup.
Second baseman Ryan Wright was up next, and Mateo continued to hug the outside corner of the zone, getting Wright to ground to short on the fifth pitch of the at bat. Powerful lefty Kyle Waldrop rolled over the first pitch, pulling the ball behind first base where second baseman Eric Garcia ranged far to his left and got Waldrop out on a toss to the covering Mateo.
Second Inning
Mateo once again hugged the outside corner against Seth Mejias-Brean to open the second, missing inside once, but he missed a called strikeout on an off speed pitch that looked quite good on the fourth pitch of the at bat.
Mejias-Brean fought to take the at bat to 7 pitches before Mateo got his second strikeout of the game. Lefty-hitting Juan Perez came up next, and Mateo changed modes on Perez, going inside all four pitches before Perez pulled the ball to the first baseman.
Next up was shortstop Zach Vincej, and Mateo missed his target each pitch the first four pitches of the at bat. He got one strike called, but on a 3-1 count, Vincej took a hanging pitch to right-center for a double.
Left fielder Juan Silva followed Vincej, and Mateo was out of the stretch for the first time. Mateo was able to get Silva to chase ball four on a full count for his third strikeout of the game to get out of the inning.
Third Inning
Catcher Cam Maron led off the third inning, and Mateo missed twice inside. He went back inside with an off speed pitch twice to get called strikes. He then missed his location, leaving the ball over the middle instead of outside where Matt Kennelly was positioned.
Maron slapped the ball up the middle where Garcia got to the ball, but he couldn’t get Maron on the jump throw to first. Opposing pitcher Wandy Peralta laid down a very solid bunt to move Maron to second base.
Mateo seemed bugged by the runner at second as he went after Amaral, missing his location on his first two pitches, his second pitch nearly getting past Kennelly to the backstop if not for a great move by Kennelly.
He then got Amaral to swing through a changeup and then ground out to third base to keep the runner at second. Mateo went back to pounding the outside against the right-handed Wright, but he missed over the middle, and Wright knocked a single up the middle to drive in the first run for Pensacola, tying the game at 1.
The first pitch to Waldrop was in the dirt in the lefty’s batter box, leading to a brief stare to the mound by Waldrop.
Mateo then shifted outside for ball 2, and when he went back inside, Waldrop fouled him off with force. Then possibly the best defensive play of the young season happened. Mateo climbed the ladder, and Waldrop got under the ball, launching it behind the plate toward Mississippi’s dugout.
Matt Kennelly was on his tip toes with everything above his knees leaning over the wall to make a tremendous catch for out #3.
Fourth Inning
Mejias-Brean led off the fourth with a lined shot at Mateo that hit Mateo’s glove and bounced away. Mateo attempted to scoop the ball to first, but he hit Mejias-Brean in the back with the ball, so the hit went as an infield single.
Mateo had a nice pitch mix against Perez, going inside and out, even setting one “show me” pitch up andoutside that Perez wanted badly, but knew it was outside. The next pitch was even higher but right down the middle and Perez popped the ball to second base.
On the first pitch to Vincej, Mejias-Brean easily stole second base as Mateo didn’t even give him a look after throwing over twice in the Perez at bat. Vincej hit the second pitch to deep right field and Mejias-Brean tagged up to third base. Silva took an inside off speed pitch to right field to end the threat in the fourth.
Fifth Inning
Mateo started the fifth against catcher Maron by going low in the zone before climbing the ladder and getting his fourth strikeout. Up next was the pitcher Peralta, and while he laid down a great bunt in his first at bat, Peralta struck out on four quick pitches.
That brought the top of the order in center fielder Amaral. Mateo pounded the zone against Amaral, but again he got unlucky as Amaral bounced a ball between Mateo and Garcia that Garcia couldn’t get to Kevin Ahrens at first before Amaral had sprinted down the line to beat the throw by a step.
Mateo’s indifference to the running game led to another steal as Amaral took off on a 1-1 pitch to second base as Wright stood in. After staying in the middle and moving the ball up and down the zone, Mateo got a call on the outside corner to strike out Wright and end the inning by striking out the side.
Sixth Inning
Mateo got Waldrop to ground out to second to open the sixth inning. After falling behind Mejias-Brean 2-0 before two fouls ran the count to 2-2, Mateo walked Mejias-Brean.
With Perez at the plate, Mateo threw over to try to keep Mejias-Brean, pitched out, and then struggled to find the zone, walking Perez on four pitches. Shortstop Vincej popped out to short right field so the runners couldn’t tag up.
Mateo struggled to find the zone with Silva, leading to a mound visit from pitching coach Dennis Lewallyn as the count went to 2-0 before Perez took a 3-1 pitch to center field to end the inning.
May 25th vs. Jacksonville – 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 2 K
First Inning
The first pitch to Kenny Wilson was clubbed hard to left field for a loud out. Carlos Lopez followed and Mateo struggled to locate the zone before Lopez lifted a ball off the plate low into left field for the second out.
Shortstop Austin Nola was the third man up in the inning, and he quickly drew a four-pitch walk.
First baseman Viosergy Rosa, a top-25 Marlins prospect, was the cleanup hitter on the day. Rosa took a nice swing on an inside fastball and hooked it to right field for a single, moving Nola to third on the hit.
Matt Juengel had a loud first strike, popping the ball behind the plate. Mateo’s slider was tailing in on a right-handed batter early, but he seemed to have more tail than he was able to handle, and when he went back to a fastball to get a strike on Juengel, the Jacksonville left fielder hit a solid single up the middle to drive in the first run of the day.
David Adams struggled with Mateo’s offspeed stuff, grounding the ball to the second baseman to end the inning.
Second Inning
Second baseman Terrence Dayleg led off the second inning, and he crossed up Mallex Smith with a drive to straight center that Smith first broke back hard on and then had to sprint in to make the catch, a recurring issue with Smith’s defense if you watch him.
Sharif Othman, the Jacksonville catcher, watched a couple of cut fastballs for a ball and a strike before fouling off a pair of high fastballs. Mateo threw one into the dirt, hoping Othman would chase, but he didn’t bite. On the 3-2 pitch, the catcher drew a walk, Mateo’s second of the day.
Opposing pitcher Chipper Smith bluffed a bunt on the first pitch and nearly slapped an extra base hit that went just wide of the third base bag. Smith bunted the hard high fastball too hard back to Mateo, and he was able to wisely get the lead runner at second base. Leadoff hitter Wilson came to the plate and aired the first pitch to right field for the third out.
Third Inning
Lopez led off the third by laying off a low breaking ball and a high cut fastball, then had a low outside fastball called a strike before a hanging slider was called ball three. On the 3-1 count, Mateo went up and outside, but he did not get the call and walked Lopez. Nola followed with a very solid bunt that catcher Matt Kennelly had to make a very good throw to get Nola at first.
Rosa came up after his first inning single set up the game’s first run, and Mateo was visibly frustrated by Lopez’s presence at second base. Mateo got Rosa to chase a very good changeup for an 0-2 count, but Rosa worked the count to full by fouling off close pitches and laying off pitches outside, including ball four to put runners at first and second. Juengel took the first pitch to shortstop for a routine 6-4-3 double play.
Fourth Inning
Third baseman Adams led off the fourth and on the second pitch, he flew out to left field. Mateo then walked Dayleg on four pitches, not even getting close on multiple pitches in the at bat.
Mateo finished short in his delivery with Dayleg on first base, leaving the first two pitches to Othman up in the zone. Othman grounded the third pitch of the at bat to the right side, but the Braves couldn’t get the double play turned.
Mateo attacked the pitcher Smith on the outside corner, getting a swinging strikeout.
Fifth Inning
Leadoff hitter Wilson led off the fifth against Mateo, and he took the second pitch to Rio Ruiz at third for a quick ground out. Lopez followed Wilson’s lead and jumped on the second pitch, but he had better success with a single to left field.
Nola followed with a single on a 2-2 count, putting runners on first and second for cleanup hitter Rosa.
Rosa worked the count to 2-2 before also singling off of Mateo, driving in Lopez and moving Nola to third. Juengel followed with yet another single, driving in Nola and moving Rosa to second.
Adams jumped on the second pitch of his at-bat, but he flew out to left field. On 2-0, Mateo did find another gear against Dayleg, striking him out on a very good breaking pitch for his last batter of the game.
Overall Review – 18 IP, 16 H, 4 R, 10 BB, 11 K
The first two games were games covered by the Braves, and the camera angles are pretty limited on the Mississippi broadcast, with the primary view coming from what I assume is the press box up into the stands off the catcher’s left shoulder, so picking up pitch movement was difficult.
He’s not a strikeout guy, but he doesn’t allow home runs and has shown a low walk rate this season. Guys with his numbers are often seen as ground ball machines, but that’s not Mateo’s MO, as he simply just doesn’t let hitters get the best of the bat on the ball. That could fade in the majors, but he’s definitely making it work right now.
Mateo pitches completely from the stretch, so he’s physically comfortable on the mound with runners on base, though he had obvious discomfort on a mental level when a runner got to second base. The third game was a much better camera angle, and it showed both the excellent cut on Mateo’s cutter, but also the absolute flat trajectory of his four-seam fastball.
What can he be?
Mateo has a thick build, much like Williams Perez when he popped onto the radar screen with his 2013 performance, though Mateo made it to AA with Tampa Bay while under the radar before the Braves signed him as a minor league free agent before the season. He gets some very good downward plane on his pitches with his 6’5 frame, and he’ll turn 26 this summer, so his window isn’t exactly big, but he could provide some very good value at the back end of a rotation as long as he continues to keep guys off the base paths.
Mateo has a very good changeup, but he loses touch on that pitch too frequently. He could have a career with a cutter/slider combination in the bullpen, but if his changeup could become more consistently solid, he could be that back-end starter.
I really like what Mateo could be if the Braves can help him harness his changeup into an above-average pitch. He should bring some value in the bullpen at the very least, but the Braves may have found a gem here to fill in the back of the rotation.