Atlanta Braves vs. the NL East…How Others are Faring
May 20, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper (34) looks on after being thrown out of the game in the third inning against the New York Yankees at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Nationals
There’s no way that anyone should be pitching to Harper right now. He and Denard Span are the only real threats in their lineup right now
After under-performing during April (10-13) to give the rest of the division a head start, the Nationals are on a torrid roll (17-5 in May).
Bryce Harper is playing out of his mind now. While he was merely normal in April (.286), May has been unbelievable: .384 with eleven homers, 26 RBI in 91 plate appearances. He’s at 3.5 fWAR, which leads the majors… by a lot. He’s also up to 40 walks for the year already… hardly surprising. Heck, looking at the picture above, it all seems so easy that even a caveman can do it.
The Nats pitching is more-or-less coming around, too, now leading all of baseball (easily) in fWAR with 7.4, though that comes with an elevated ERA of 3.64 (8th overall; the Cardinals lead with 2.79; Braves are 20th at 4.06).
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When you look into Washington’s starting pitching , it actually tends to look a bit vulnerable: Max Scherzer has been lights-out, but no one else has. In particular, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg have been quite rough around the edges (4.53 and 6.50 ERA respectively).
The Nats bullpen has been excellent, and that will keep them in games… so long as their starters don’t lose them first.
So while the Nats are now dominating the division, that’s almost entirely the result of Bryce Harper and his 26 May RBI… and indeed, +26 is their current run differential.
- PROGNOSIS. There’s no way that anyone should be pitching to Harper right now. He and Denard Span are the only real threats in their lineup right now. Walk Harper four times a game and take your chances with everyone else… including the pitching staff.
- FORECAST. Harper truly can’t continue to hit .384… once he comes back to the pack, so will the Nationals. That said, they still have horses, and should cruise to the Division title, though perhaps playing no better than .550 ball unless their starters get on track.