Atlanta Braves Pitching Could Create Options for Trades
Atlanta Brave pitchers report to the field during spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Before Williams Perez was announced as starter for last night’s game, I went on record as boldly projecting that Matt Wisler would end up starting the May 24 game against the Brewers, thus becoming the new 5th rotation member.
Eh, not so fast.
Seems that the Braves had other ideas, and I then started to wonder where they might be headed. Here’s a few thoughts:
SPRING FAIL
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As we entered the season, one of the common phrases we were hearing among fans and reporters was “trade bait.” And for good reason: the Braves had a pile of pitchers lined up, and it made sense that a surplus could be used to fill a hole or two – if not early on, then perhaps by the All-Star break.
But what happened to all that?
- Wandy Rodriguez. Made the club… then un-made the club, seemingly in a single start. Seems management was spooked by his injury history and decided that what they saw before them wasn’t going to be good enough… or something. Released.
- Eric Stults. Designated innings eater. But he wasn’t really eating enough… and certainly was having more trouble keeping runners from crossing the plate as time went on. Bullpen.
- Trevor Cahill. This sounded like a reasonably possible reclamation project. Instead, it’s been a disaster by any measuring stick you’d like to use. Bullpen.
- Chien-Ming Wang. Did you remember him? His numbers at Gwinnett: 0-4, 5.70 ERA in 36 innings. AAA.
- Mike Minor, the popular choice among fans voting for ‘pitcher you’d most like to see traded’, is now sitting at home while letting his repaired shoulder mend… for the rest of the year. 60-day DL.
Total trade value from this group? Zippo.
So much for that plan. Hit NEXT to Continue…
Apr 24, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Chris Johnson (23) and first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) watch as starting pitcher Cody Martin (57) warms up in the sixth inning of a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
WHO’s LEFT?
Okay, so… now what? First, let’s count noses:
- Current Starting Rotation: Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Shelby Miller, Mike Foltynewicz, Williams Perez (5).
- Nearly Available in AAA: Matt Wisler, Manny Banuelos* (2)
- Wild Cards for 2016: Daniel Winkler, Sugar Ray Marimon, Max Fried, Tyrell Jenkins, Cody Martin; possibly another 1 or 2 (4+)
* Banuelos will have innings limited this season… perhaps 70-80 more, and not going too deep into games.
So there is plenty of pitching that’s either available now, or on the cusp. That’s certainly helpful. But how do you use all of these guys?
The evident answer is that you can’t… and that raises the specter of trades again.
Atlanta Braves pitcher
Williams Perezthrows a ball during spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
SO… PEREZ? PLAN B?
Is Williams Perez the ‘next big thing?’ Not terribly likely. He’s certainly one of the least heralded in that group of pitchers just mentioned… though with development numbers that do stack up very well:
- 2013 (A+): 2.62 ERA in 55 innings
- 2014 (AA): 2.91 ERA in 133 innings
- 2015 (AAA): 1.33 ERA in 27 innings prior to call-up
But there is a caveat with Perez – one mentioned by Mark Bowman in a blog post from today:
Before yesterday’s start, a Major League scout said that Perez “tips his pitches as much as any pitcher I have ever seen.” This will be something to monitor as clubs develop a book on him over the next few starts.
If such were the case, the Rays couldn’t take advantage last night… and apparently few in the minor leagues have been able to, either. Heck – he left Evan Longoria looking silly on one AB last night. But it’s something to keep in mind.
So why even run Perez out there for ‘a few starts‘ if he’s not your future? There are a couple of possibilities:
- He probably couldn’t do worse than Stults or Cahill… but then you could say that about others
- Organizational uncertainly on the readiness of Wisler or Banuelos
Or maybe: is he being showcased for a possible trade?
That would make some sense. You’re not going to get a large payoff from him, but it would be a way to get decent value for a pitcher that you probably have no place for in the organization after a few more months. And perhaps the club can salvage part of a trade plan that began to unravel roughly when Trevor Cahill picked up the first baseball while wearing red and blue colors.
In the meantime, you do get Perez out of the bullpen – which has never been his gig – and into a more comfortable pitching situation. That part worked last night, at least.
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
FUTURE SCOPING
Unless John Hart pulls another fast one and chooses to trade either Julio Teheran or Alex Wood, I think we can safely suggest that the Braves are now thinking the following for their 2016 rotation: Teheran, Wood, Miller, Folty, and Wisler. Banuelos would be waiting in the wings as next up if one of them gets hurt. Several others are available to be that 7th option.
That just doesn’t leave a lot of room for guys like Williams Perez… or a Cody Martin, for instance. So the best thing that can be done to help the club is to use them… Perez in the majors, Martin back at AAA… to show teams what they can do. And maybe that can help the Braves out a little at the trade deadline: nothing big, or perhaps as an added piece to something else. But it’s a better use of their talents that these guys might see otherwise.
I am a firm believer that the Braves have long chosen as an organization to overload with pitching. Partly this is to overcome injuries; partly so that they don’t have to pay to get it. But also because others always seem to be in need of pitching.
I just hope that the ‘major league scout’ Bowman referenced wasn’t working for the Dodgers, or this showcase effort could be shut down fairly quickly next Monday.
And then maybe we’ll have to consider a Plan C.