Are There Problems in the Atlanta Braves Bullpen

Apr 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run as Atlanta Braves pitcher Jim Johnson (53) prepares for his next pitch in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Less Than  Successful

On Friday Ryan suggested that the Braves bullpen was faltering but really only two pitchers have been . . . shaky.

Juan Jaime is simply not a major league pitcher. He throws in the high 90s but has little actual idea where the ball is going. You can get away with that in the minors but major league hitters will wait you out and when you lay one down the middle they’ll square it up. He made two appearances this year for 1 1/3 IP walking four of the eight batters faced while striking out just one. He missed his target so badly he had Christian Bethancourt – a fine defensive catcher – lunging to both sides so often it’s a wonder he didn’t dislocate something.

Jim Johnson

After kicking around the Orioles organization five years posting a 3.65 ERA (3.88 FIP) and 1.365 WHIP in 146 games and recording 12 saves. Johnson found himself a key part of their bullpen in 2011.  That season he threw 91 1/3 innings with a 2.67 ERA (3.32 FIP) and a 1.110 WHIP and recorded nine saves. he  became their closer in September and started the next season in that role.

Between 2012 and 2013 Johnson was almost unbeatable. He pitched to a 2.72 ERA and 1,151 WHIP recording 101 saves in 113 opportunities and for an rWAR total of 5.1 and earning a big contract. In December of 2013 the Orioles traded him to the Athletics for light hitting second baseman Jemile Weeks and a PTBNL. Everyone considered that a salary dump and felt that Oakland had virtually stolen a closer, tor Oakland however, Johnson was a disaster and they released him in August eating him $10M salary.

Johnson’s sinker slider pitcher who throws that sinker about 68% of the time so if the sinker isn’t working he’s in trouble. According to Brooks Baseball Johnson’s sinker velocity didn’t change significantly between 2012 and 2014. His movement changed little either and he was actually getting more sink when he was in Oakland as the graphic below shows. It looks like hitters saw that his sinker wasn’t a strike early and laid off it choosing to sit on his secondary pitches.

The Braves hope sinker specialist Roger McDowell could get JJ back on track and in his initial outings it appeared that he had. Then suddenly he was ineffective again but instead of being too low in the zone the chart shows he’s thrown a lot of center cut sinkers that didn’t sink confirming what the eye test suggested in his last few outings.  When sinkers don’t sink they travel a long way.

Graphs courtesy Texas Leaguers

Jim Johnson’s pitches this year have caught a lot of the plate Graphic Courtesy http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/

The Jim Johnson project is still a work in progress that may or may not pay dividends. However Fredi Gonzalez keeps running him out there in the higher leverage eighth inning hoping it will work. Last night’s game could I suppose be considered a confidence builder for Johnson but it didn’t inspire confidence in most observers.

After giving up a line drive single to the leadoff man a scorching ground ball single to the second hitter Johnson got a bit lucky when a line shot was hit directly at Nick Markakis for the first out. The next batter lifted a fly ball to medium center field for the second out and Jeff Francoeur ended the inning by ground into a force play.

Jim Johnson’s pitches in the April 25 game were very hittable.

Graphic courtesy http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/

The chart shows that way too many of his sinkers are belt high or close to it. Had we been playing a team with better hitter the inning could have turned really ugly.   Every indication is that using Johnson in the eighth inning isn’t a good idea.

That’s A Wrap

The Braves bullpen has so far been pretty darn good. With Jaime now gone – one hopes for good – the only questions remaining are 1) will the starters will go deep enough often enough to keep Fredi from the relief crew so often their arms fall off and 2) will Johnson ever get back on track.

I have no doubt Cunniff was sent down to allow his arm to recover as much as any other reason. He had been the best ground ball producer out there and could well end up in the eighth inning by season’s end but the lack of innings from starters meant almost constant use.  We’ve seen in the past what happens when young arms are used excessively so perhaps we can rotate folks up and down enough to mitigate that possibility.

Our fearless TV broadcasters just gave us the spin that Johnson had a good outing. It was good only because the lineup he was facing was weak. He shouldn’t be used in high leverage situations but clearly the message is that he will. All we can do is pray he finds his groove quickly.

The main problem with both parts of the pitching cadre is lack of offense from the lineup. Lineups and rosters need balance; guys that work counts, hit to all fields and get on base as well as a couple who offer enough power to be a threat. That we have Kelly Johnson hitting cleanup today says all there is to say about our lack of punch.  Hopefully the John Hart rebuilding/retooling/transitioning plan will do for everyday players what he’s done. f0r pitching so far