Atlanta Braves in 2015: How’s Your Optimism Level?
(49) throws during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Braves won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
PITCHING QUESTIONS
P1: How many different pitchers will start games for the Atlanta Braves this year?
- 8 or fewer: 27.9%
- 9 or more: 72.1% (not so optimistic)
Generally, the “8 and fewer” would be the more optimistic point of view, though it is actually a fairly difficult feat to go through a season using as few as 8 starters. In 2014, the Nats used 8 starters, the Mets 9, the Marlins 13, the Phillies 9, and the Braves… 8.
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P2: How many saves will Craig Kimbrel get in 2015?
- 39 or fewer: 39.7%
- 40 or more: 57.4% (optimistic)
- No answer: 2.9%
Well, I hope that the ‘no answers’ didn’t think that the question became moot as a result of the trade… but it is true that the parameters might have changed a bit after that stunning deal that moved him to the Padres. Nonetheless, Kimbrel is still alive and well and pitching in California… and at the moment: he has 1 save. But to the extent that most of you were thinking ‘Braves Saves’ – this is an optimistic result.
P3: Number of Braves’ pitchers with 10 or more wins
- 2 or fewer: 32.4%
- 3 or more: 67.6% (optimistic)
Clearly, more pitchers in double-digit victories means a more upbeat outlook. On this one, I was truly torn on whether to add 1 to the over/under break here. But in 2014, the answer was “3”… though 2 of them aren’t with the team any more (Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana… who is pitching for anybody right now).
P4: First day Mike Minor starts a game for Atlanta
- Earlier than May 6th: 11.8%
- May 6 or later: 88.2% (pessimistic)
This one is most likely is already decided. May 6th as a decision point was probably overly optimistic anyway, but that’s roughly what the media was telling us at the time. Now we’ve learned that Minor’s shoulder pain is still with him, and thus it could be quite a while before we see Mike Minor out on a mound.
P5: Total number of innings pitched by starters NOT on the Opening Day Roster.
- 111 innings or less: 38.2%
- 111.1 innings or more: 60.3% (pessimistic?)
- No answer: 1.5%
Rather than naming specific pitchers… and indeed we have a strong new candidate in Matt Wisler who arrived after this survey was created… I went for any name not on the original 25-man roster. The argument here is that the more pitchers needed, the worse that the season is going, though promoting solid youngsters isn’t a bad thing by itself. This could manifest itself via injuries, trades, or just poor performance. So far? The tally is zero. That’ll change.