Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Outman; Rosenthal Swings & Misses

Atlanta Braves infielder Jose Peraza (70) takes infield. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Eyes on new front office to spark Braves renaissance

KEN ROSENTHAL / FOXSPORTS.COM

For a team that came to despise its own farm system, the Braves sure generated a lot of major-league talent.

In fact, over the last five drafts, only the Tigers selected a greater number of players who reached the majors, producing 15 to the Braves’ 13, according to STATS LLC.

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Yet, the Braves justified their front-office overhaul and subsequent gutting of their major-league roster in part because they believed their system was not good enough.

This is how it works in baseball and other industries — new management takes over, promising a better future, pointing out the previous regime’s deficiencies.

I get it. I also get that the Braves, due to the pending free agencies of outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, needed to reconfigure their roster.

But as the team’s deconstruction continues, most recently with the trade of closer Craig Kimbrel to the Padres, I’m not convinced that the Braves were in such bad shape to begin with. I’m also not convinced that they will be in better shape in the future.

The Braves’ selections from 2010 to ‘14 under former scouting director Tony DeMacio included shortstop Andrelton Simmons (second round, ‘10), outfielder Evan Gattis (23rd round, ‘10) and left-hander Alex Wood (second round, ‘12). During that period, the team also signed its top prospect, second baseman Jose Peraza, out of Venezuela.

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Editor’s Notes:  first off, please see the link above for much more of Rosenthal’s commentary.  But there are several points to address.

• Rosenthal’s vision extends only to “players reaching the majors” over a scant five drafts.  That’s a metric akin to measuring rainfall in California and declaring that the entire country must be in a debilitating drought.  It doesn’t remotely address the full picture, and he knows better than that.
• He points out 3 players over this past 5 years who are now significant major league contributors… just 3.  Jose Peraza may also be one soon, but it’s still less than one per year at this point, when major league teams typically need to average 2-3 per season to field a 25-man active roster.  Also: those players were the products of a scouting department later run off by Wren & Company.
• He fails to mention farm system rankings that had the Braves lagging badly over a period of years.  Here’s one series (via baseballprospectus.com):
  • 2015 rank: 19th (issued February 17th: “positioned strongly to move up this list”; others now place the organization in the 5-10 range)
  • 2014 rank: 24th (“economical approach to the rule 4 draft has left the system thin on high-ceiling stateside talent.”)
  • 2013 rank: 18th (“recent draft hauls that haven’t produced enough impact fruit.”)
  • 2012 rank: 10th (“things could be moving in the wrong direction in a couple of years…ugly drafts”)
  • 2011 rank: 3rd
  • 2010 rank: 4th
  • 2009 rank: 4th
• Another metric that could have been useful:  number of players in the various “Top 100” prospects list.  Until Peraza appeared, the Braves were behind here as well: in 2014, the Braves had Lucas Sims at #57 (baseballamerica’s list – higher than most) and Christian Bethancourt at 69.  Curiously enough, that same list features Max Fried at #53, Michael Foltynewicz at #59, Matt Wisler at #44, (Manny Banuelos dropped off after his surgery).
• Rosenthal criticized several transactions this off-season:
  • Carpenter and Shreve to the Yankees for Manny Banuelos.  Of everything done this off-season, this is the one I would complain about the most.  So far, the bullpen looks like they ended up with the right crew, though Shreve in particular will be missed.  Meanwhile, there are so many live starting arms stockpiled, I have no idea where they will all end up.  In the case of Banuelos, it’s pretty clear Hart was gambling on potential… and perhaps Gordon Blakeley hadn’t seen him pitch lately.  It is also quite possible that he thought he had enough bullpen depth at that time.
  • The Tommy La Stella deal. You can’t criticize this one for the suspension of Arodys Vizcaino since that wasn’t even on the radar until five months later.  La Stella, for all I personally like about him, was not going to be a long-term option.  Rosenthal actually admits this.  So the Braves turned him into multiple international players, plus Vizcaino.  We won’t see the results of this trade for perhaps up to 10 more years from now.
  • The loss of J.R. Graham (Rule 5 pick to Minnesota). At that time, it wasn’t entirely clear – and still isn’t – how Graham would handle a bullpen role, and whether he can stay healthy.  When he’s “on”, he’s an outstanding pitcher.  But almost since he was drafted in 2011, he has been struggling with shoulder issues.  Had another team taken Cody Martin in the Rule 5 draft, I would have a whole ‘nother reaction, but Graham was not looking like a long-term solution, and others agreed with that assessment.
  • David Hale and Gus Schlosser for 2 Rockies’ catchers.  Rosenthal suggests that Hale could have been kept instead of going out to get Trevor Cahill.  I am still not sold on Hale, long term.  He can get hitters out in bunches, but whether that extends to innings 5-6-7 at the major league level… that’s an open question.  Besides, look at who else is available now.  And we needed catchers in the pipe.
  • Kyle Kubitza to the Angels for Ricardo Sanchez.  He’s obviously never seen Kubitza’s fielding at third base.  Apparently the Angels hadn’t either.  This was a steal.  Meanwhile, Hart obtained our 3B of the future in Rio Ruiz.

• He concluded saying “No front office is perfect.  But when is came to producing young talent, the Braves’ previous one wasn’t so bad.”  Yes, Ken – it was.  Sure, there were a few successes. But the failures were clearly adding up, which was forcing a need for too many high-priced free-agent deals… and that was unsustainable.