Atlanta Braves Trade Kimbrel: How Does This Impact 2015?

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Mar 11, 2015; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Jason Grilli (39) throws a pitch during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

In the Bullpen

I have long been an advocate of acquiring the “Ace” pitcher to lead a starting staff. I may have to review that stance a bit, given that the Braves now have a boatload of top-shelf pitching prospects and while 1 or 2 might become “Ace” material, having 5 in that #2 or #3 category probably works just as well overall.

The point of having an “Ace”, though, was to be able to insert that player onto the front of a rotation, and thus “push” the rest of a very capable staff down one notch each. Thus each “slot” becomes better for it.

Trading away Craig Kimbrel effectively does the reverse of this for the bullpen. This action removes the best closer in the game and forces all others to be pulled up to cover for a role that frankly cannot be covered in full. But there are options:

Jason Grilli – a former closer who performed well during Spring
Jim Johnson – a former closer who lost his edge in 2014, but seemed to be returning to form this Spring
Brandon Cunniff – the “winner” in this trade, for he’s being promoted to the majors today as Kimbrel departs

The Numbers

More from Tomahawk Take

We heard a consistent call among many experts that the Braves might as well trade Kimbrel since it did not make sense (to them) to keep as elite closer – eventually paying him elite money – when the team was not going to be successful enough to “justify” having the best. This premise was based on the notion that if Atlanta was a 70-74 win team, then why bother?

First off, the 2014 team had 79 wins and 47 saves… almost 60% of the wins. Completing those victories was important – and until the Summer Swoon, Kimbrel might have been on a 50-54 save pace. So while I don’t accept the premise, it is notable that these save opportunities (particular for a 2015 team that might crate more opportunities via closely fought games if run-scoring continues to be an issue) still need to be converted.

In 2014, Kimbrel blew 4 saves. Same for 2013 (3 in 2012; 8 in 2011).

Jason Grilli (just named as primary closer) below 5 in 2014, 2 in 2013, 3 in 2012… but was only a full-time closer in 2012 (32 saves). Jim Johnson (named as backup) lost his role early in 2014, blowing 1 save, but while he saved 101 games in 2012-13, he blew 3 and 9 saves, respectively in those years.

Taking 2014 numbers, relievers threw 441 innings. Starters threw 1014 innings (a 30/70 split).

I believe it is therefore reasonable to consider this impact to the bullpen:

4-5 additional blown saves (up to 8-9 for the year)
An additional 1.00 ERA for the bullpen; that just from increased innings from pitchers that don’t typically have a 1.43 career ERA (both Grilli and Johnson can be expected to be in the 3.00 ERA range). The impact of this is hard to measure, and that may be a bit liberal as well, but it amounts to perhaps an additional run every 3 games or so. Thus, 1-run games are more at risk than in times past.
The Braves had 53 1-run games in 2014 (25-28). This roughly mirrors their overall record (79-83). If that’s repeated, 1/3rd of those wins are at higher risk for loss, or 8 games. Based on record, I estimate half of those 8 to be turned into losses for 2015 due to increased bullpen ERA.
Thus, I am guessing 4 additional losses for the season as a result. That’s strictly a guess, but all things being equal, that seems quite possible… and could be 5 or 6, based on bullpen performance.
Your mileage may vary – we would definitely like to see your opinions.

Now let’s see about Center Field.

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