5 Burning Questions to be Resolved
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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It’s January 12th.
All of the holidays’ delays and slowdowns should be done now (not that holidays slowed down John Hart).
- In 39 days, pitchers and catchers report to Disney.
- In 51 days, the first Spring game will be played.
There is still work to be done… questions to be answered. Positions to reconcile… and a new team to put together.
Hit ‘NEXT‘ to dig in with us…
Atlanta Braves pitcher David Hale (57). Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Q1: Who Will Be the 5th Starter?
Right now it’s still David Hale‘s job to lose. First backup option is probably Cody Martin. But here are the problems with those choices:
- The most innings Hale has ever pitched in a year was 146 in 2012 (AA Mississippi). Last year, he only saw 87 innings.
- The Braves can’t have too much confidence in Cody Martin: they left his exposed to the Rule 5 Draft… but somehow he’s still a Brave.
- Though I have heard James Russell‘s name as a starter candidate, I’m really not buying that. He had 5 starts in 2011, 7 in AAA in 2009. This doesn’t count the last-day-of-the-season stint last September.
Hale’s magic was still working: 3.30 ERA in 2014 (3.02 overall in the majors), but he seems to be working around hitters.
- As many walks as strikeouts in 2014
- His zone profile shows clearly that he pitches both low and to the inside to RHH; both low and away to LHH.
- Of the starters – or occasional starters, his 0.52 HR/9 rate was the lowest on the club. 58% grounder rate was lowest among all pitchers with more than 1 inning of work.
- It’s a pitch-to-contact approach that generates a low of grounders, and with a (possibly) improved infield defense, that scheme could continue to work.
Still, there’s that “depth” thing – but these kinds of results from Hale could mean that Atlanta is content to check the “risk” market for that depth. Such as…
- Brandon Beachy… we could hear about his decision as soon as today.
- Chad Billingsley. Great when healthy, but…
- Alexi Ogando. Said to be fully healthy and ready to go (a well-attended showcase was held over the weekend)
- Johan Santana. For him, it had been a shoulder injury. But now that shoulder has had extra healing time thanks to his 2014 Achilles injury.
One more point… we’ll review the bullpen a little later, but the signing of Josh Outman may have increased the chances that David Hale is pushed to the rotation and out of the bullpen.
Hit NEXT to continue>>>
Q2: What’s on Second…or Third?
As the off-season began, the Braves traded away Tommy La Stella. Okay, I could understand that… we still had a more-versatile Philip Gosselin, with the likelihood that Jose Peraza would be along soon… maybe even earlier than we thought.
So naturally we’ve now added two more players would can handle second… or third.
“Who’s on second?”
“No, Who’s on first?”
“I don’t know.”
“Third base!”
Let’s look at the candidates:
- Phil Gosselin. The Braves prefer to leverage his ability to play all infield positions, plus both outfield corners. Additionally, he runs well and has a good hitting tool, so expect Gosselin to be the first infielder off the bench late in games.
- Jace Peterson. Will have a chance to be the regular second baseman. Bats Lefty. Hit very well in AA/AAA with great OBP numbers.
- Alberto Callaspo. Switch hitter. At 32 years old (April), his chance of beating out Peterson will depend on the latter’s hitting in Spring. What’s more possible is (a) situational pinch-hitter; and/or (b) platoon candidate with Chris Johnson. In 2014, he hit better as a lefty, but that wasn’t true going further back into his career.
- Chris Johnson. Hit .395 vs. Lefty pitching in 2014. Three ninety-five. But just .231 vs. right-handers. That stat alone will probably cost him a bunch of playing time in 2015 unless he can figure out how to make it closer to .299 (Johnson’s 2013 rate vs. RHP).
I smell one of those ‘going with the hot hand’ scenarios with Fredi for third base. Regardless, this combination does give Fredi Gonzalez a bunch of options on his roster/bench:
- Lefty hitters: Peterson, Callaspo, Bethancourt, Pierzynski (depending on who’s catching), Almonte
- Righty hitters: Gosselin, Johnson, Callaspo, Almonte, Gattis (depending on who’s in left field)
Ah, Left Field… there’s another topic. Hit NEXT to continue>>>
Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis (24) hits an RBI single off of Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Jon Lester. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Q3: So We’re Really Playing Gattis in LF
Granted, this is a statement, not a question, but that’s kinda what it looks like. The question, then, is maybe along the lines of ‘how long will we have to endure this?’
John Hart insisted – despite reports to the contrary – that he wasn’t making calls to shop Evan Gattis, but that he’d listen on almost anybody. Even at this date, that’s clearly still true, though it would take a really big offer to pry the Bear loose.
At this point, my own guess on The Way Things Will Work is something like this:
- Gattis in Left Field most of the time. Might catch once a week.
- Zoilo Almonte picks up those 1 or 2 days a week in LF. Or Joey Terdoslavich – depending on who wins the spot out of Spring. Or Dian Toscano, once he gets on board and is deemed ready to go.
- Christian Bethancourt catches most of the time.
- A.J. Pierzynski (one of the worst catchers in baseball – regardless of who’s counting) might catch once or twice a week.
Given all of the moving parts above, there is one name that seemingly has the power to change the equation: Dian Toscano. He won’t be a power hitter, but if he can start hitting and generally getting on base at high rates, then Fredi might have to re-allocate the playing time accordingly. That said, I’d hold back on the enthusiasm, for it’s still way too early to go there.
Hit NEXT to continue>>>
Braves bullpen during spring training at Disney Wide World of Sports complex, Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Q4: Who’s in the Bullpen?
SUB-QUESTION: WHY IS LUIS AVILAN STILL THERE?
For all of the concerns/complaints/criticisms that we have levied on Avilan, he’s still been there – and still has a lefty arm that Fredi calls upon for 60-75 appearances each season (2013-2014). But as we review the list… there are too many names on it.
So barring injury, who are the candidates right now?
- Craig Kimbrel
- Jason Grilli
- Jim Johnson
- James Russell
- Shae Simmons
- Arodys Vizcaino
- David Hale… maybe.
- Josh Outman
- Luis Avilan
- Juan Jaime (who is out of options)
- Ian Thomas
There are some viable candidates in the minors (Ryne Harper, Gus Schlosser, et al) if necessary. Additionally, relievers tend to be available here and there, so no worries at this point in terms of filling those chairs. If the Braves want to move Avlian, then – it’s possible without a large burden.
Other bullpen questions:
- Can Jim Johnson reclaim the stuff that got him 50+ saves in 2012 and 2013?
- Can Vizcaino shake off a 3 year setback and make the club?
Those answers will have to wait until March.
The final big question… NEXT >>>
Mar 11, 2014; Lakeland, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes (7) talks with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer (25) prior to the game against the Detroit Tigers at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Q5: Where Will the Offense Come From?
Here’s what we do know:
- When this question is asked, most people are thinking about “home runs and people who drive in runs”
- Don’t lose sight of this: the Braves are re-tooling in an effort to reduce strikeouts, increase average, and increase OBP.
The building blocks for this are:
- The table-setters: Jace Peterson, Nick Markakis
- The thumpers: Evan Gattis and Freddie Freeman
- The Wild Cards: Chris Johnson, Alberto Callaspo, Andrelton Simmons
- The recovery project: B.J. Upton
I would project that Markakis and Peterson hit 1-2… unless Upton somehow hits in place of Peterson. Freeman and Gattis would follow in the 3/4 slots, which should get Freddie some pitches to hit.
The season’s offensive performance may hinge on that next group: particularly Johnson and Simmons. Anything B.J. provides has to be viewed as a “plus”.
So there are 7 positions in the order that should all hit at least .250 and get on base at a collective .330 rate. Last year, the Braves’ non-pitchers hit .249 (10th in NL) with a .315 OBP (10th in NL) with 1227 strikeouts (3rd worst in NL).
The goals? The best run-producers in the NL (Rockies, Dodgers, Nationals) had numbers akin to these from their non-pitchers:
- Batting: .261-.284
- OBP: .330-.340
- HR: 150+ from Nats and Rox, but the Dodgers only had 133
Also: the Cardinals proved that you can win without the homer (105 – lowest in the NL). Their OBP was .327 with the lowest strikeouts in the league (1011). By the way, they did that with a defensive liability in left field.
SLACK AT THE BOTTOM
It turns out that once the Braves got to the end of the batting order in 2014, any semblance of a rally died right there.
- Batting 8th: .227
- Batting 9th: .137 (Pitchers’ offensive WAR was 14th in the NL)
Of course, that ignores the .245/.231 coming from the first two batting order positions in 2014. Sixth hitters were also horrible: .228.
Can this cobbled-together group of slap hitters best those numbers? I would frankly have to say that they can’t do worse.
In short, as the numbers above show: get on base, put the ball in play… runs happen. This group has a chance to do just that.
SUMMARY NEXT>>>
Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones (10) bats in dugout. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
5 Questions
- Who’s the Fifth Starter (Hale?)
- Who’s on Second… or Third (committee?)
- Gattis in Left Field (um,… okay)
- What will the bullpen look like (full)
- Where will the offense come from (everywhere?)
All of these questions have answers. They may not quite be the answers you expected… or were looking for… but they are viable answers, which is actually pretty going at this point of the year. So nothing more needs to be done to the roster… yet.
Therefore, I expect another trade to untie this neat little package before the end of the week.
Need. Baseball!