The Case for Trading Evan Gattis – Revisited
Bear. Watching. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
PROS – The Case for Trading Gattis
- DEMAND IS STRONG. In October, I pointed out that given his age, Gattis’ offensive prowess could be peaking now. As I review that, I do believe there’s a case to be made to suggest that he could become significantly better over the next 2-3 years. That’s based on his continued growth and development as a hitter (having missed most of AA and AAA), plus his sheer strength. He’s akin to a Mark McGwire… before Andro.
Clearly, teams want this kind of power. And they want it at it’s peak. Heck, Seattle just gave Nelson Cruz $57 million for 4 years – and he’s already 34-1/2 years old!
Back then, I postulated that 10-14 teams could positionally upgrade their catchers with Gattis (a breakdown of other catchers was done in that previous article). That’s not even counting the additional teams who would want him simply as a DH.
- GREAT RETURN EXPECTED. John Hart wanted more from a Justin Upton trade than from the Heyward deal. Arguably, he got it, too, though perhaps not in terms of major-league-ready talent: 4 solid minor-league prospects plus an international signing slot that could also bring in multiple players. It could easily end up being a 6-for-2 or 7-for-2 deal in the end.
The best trade comp so far this off-season is Oakland’s deal with Toronto for Josh Donaldson which netted the A’s Brett Lawrie (as a ‘buy-low’ guy) and 3 prospects – the best being young shortstop Franklin Barreto. Like Gattis, Donaldson has 4 years of team control. Honestly, when you look at that trade, Hart’s deal for Upton looks really good by comparison.
A deal for Gattis should exceed the return for Justin Upton for several reasons:
- Supply and demand
- his cost control
- his RH power
- his positional rarity (hitting catcher – or DH)
- WHY NOT NOW? So if a team were to overwhelm Hart… why not? The Braves are clearly rebuilding, they have player who can man either Catcher or Left Field, and Gattis is healthy. If you’re rebuilding for 2017, then it makes sense to go ahead and cash in chips that will give you a return useful in 2017. Certainly, Hart has set up up for finishing third or worse, so pull the trigger!
- LEFT FIELD WILL BE A DISASTER. Sure, he has the arm – but neither the experience in route-running, or the legs for it. For every occasional runner he throws out at the plate, 3-4 more will score because of range/route errors and another dozen will take extra bases before he can get to the ball. Is that worth keeping his offense in the game?