Coming into the 2025, many Atlanta Braves were confused about the team's stance on Grant Holmes. The skepticism wasn't exactly a knock on Holmes per se as much as confusion as to why Holmes, who was fairly ordinary mostly out of the bullpen in 2024, seemed to have a stranglehold on a starting rotation spot. Almost 70 games into season, Holmes is still a bit of a puzzle.
Overall, his numbers as a #4/#5 starter have been fine. Having a 4.07 ERA and 4.68 FIP isn't good, but is passable for a back of the rotation guy on a team that is dealing with some injury issues. However, it is how Holmes has gotten to these numbers that is pretty bizarre.
Grant Holmes has been a study in extremes with the Braves in 2025
Let's start with the good news. First, his hair is immaculate and there is no denying that. 10 out of 10 flow on that man right there. His breaking stuff is also in the top 4% in all of baseball this season which is terrific. His ability to get ground balls and strike guys out are both well above average and he is pretty good at getting whiffs which was helpful against the Brewers on Tuesday. His chase rate and fastball velocity are only okay, but we can live with that.
The problem is, well, everything else. For starters, his fastball is in the bottom 3% in terms of effectiveness in all of baseball. Opposing hitters are hitting .338 against his four-seamer and slugging .740 this season which is just not sustainable. Of the 13 homers Holmes has given up in 73 innings of work (which is also not good), nine of them have come off his four-seam fastball. Again, bad.
On top of that, he walks too many batters (bottom 22% in the league), doesn't get much in the way of extension (bottom 16%), and gives up a lot of hard contact with below average exit velocity allowed and being in the bottom 7% in barrels allowed.
So what should we make of all of this? No idea! The bad certainly seems to outweigh the good and explains why his numbers have been mediocre. However, it feels like he alternates good and bad starts and there are always only two guys in each lineup that he can't get out and the rest he handles easily. At some point, the numbers can only tell us so much and we just have to see where this ride takes us.