Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried will make his third start since returning from the injured list against the New York Yankees on Monday night.
New York is one of the biggest disappointments in Major League Baseball this season, sitting in last place in the AL East with a 60-58 record.
The Yankees blew a massive lead to the Miami Marlins on Sunday, something very uncharacteristic from their bullpen, which has the best ERA in the bigs.
Clark Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA) gets the ball in this game, and he’s been one of the better starters for New York all season. Still, he may have a tough time competing with Fried (3-1, 2.50 ERA), who has one or zero runs in five of his seven starts in 2023.
Let’s break down the odds and a best bet for this matchup:
Yankees vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Yankees vs. Braves prediction and pick
The Yankees’ offense has been subpar all season, ranking 15th in OPS over the last 15 days entering this game.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has the best offense in baseball – including over this most recent 15-day stretch – ranking No. 1 in OPS, runs and home runs.
So, Atlanta not only has the edge at the dish, but on the mound as well. Even though Fried gave up four runs in four innings his last time out, Atlanta still went on to win the game and it only raised his ERA to 2.50 on the season.
Fried missed a ton of time with a forearm strain, but he’s given up just four runs on nine hits in 10.0 innings pitched since returning. His first start back was a gem, tossing six scoreless innings against the Chicago Cubs.
Schmidt has pitched well for the Yankees since May, posting a 8-3 record and a 3.50 ERA. New York is 10-8 in his 18 appearances, and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since May 14.
Still, I can’t trust him against the Braves since he rarely works past the sixth inning. That means Atlanta is free to tee off on a Yankees pen that is tired after blowing Sunday’s matchup.
I also think Fried will keep this New York offense in check, as the team has struggled hitting all season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.