Reds vs. Braves prediction and odds for Monday, April 10 (Why to bet OVER)

Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1)
Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves are not exactly off and running in the National League. The Padres came into town and as they leave the Braves are on a three-game losing streak and are 6-4 overall. The good news is that the 4-4 Cincinnati Reds are the next team to come to town and tonight is Game 1 of a three-game series. 

For Game 1 it’ll be Graham Ashcraft on the mound for Cincy and Bryce Elder starting for Atlanta. Let’s check out the odds for this NL matchup. 

Reds vs. Braves odds, run line and total

Reds vs. Braves prediction and pick

Both of these young pitchers got off to really strong starts, picking up a win in their lone starts. Graham Ashcraft went seven innings and gave up four hits and one run to Pittsburgh and Elder went six scoreless against St. Louis. I don’t expect either to keep it up. 

Both have a FIP nearing four after one start and while it’s a small sample, typically the ERA follows the FIP, not the other way around. Another factor is that both lineups have been pretty strong so far this year. Cincinnati’s team OPS is .761 and Atlanta is .750, that’s good for 11th and 13th in the majors. I don’t expect the Reds to keep up that production, but I do expect Atlanta to get even stronger with the bats. 

Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Ronald Acuna Jr. are swinging the bats particularly well for the Braves, but Ozzie Albies, Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris II all have an OPS well under .600. Those are good hitters, most with proven track records, much more proven that Graham Ashcraft on the mound, so I expect them to heat up after a cold start, sooner rather than later. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change