Last night’s 6-5 win makes five straight for the 80-42 Atlanta Braves. They have won eight of their last nine and are going for a sweep of the San Francisco Giants today.
The Giants have hit the toughest stretch in their schedule and so far are 2-6 against the Rangers, Rays, and Braves. San Francisco is still in a Wild Card spot at 64-59 despite their recent struggles.
Today, the Giants will go with Jakob Junis to try and prevent the sweep. Junis is 3-3 with a 4.10 ERA in 32 games. This will be his third start and he will be opposed by Max Fried making his ninth start of the year. Fried is 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds as the Braves are favored to win another one at home.
Giants vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Giants vs. Braves prediction and pick
The San Francisco Giants in the first half of the season relied heavily on their ability to be versatile in their lineup. They had very different lineups against lefties and righties and succeeded against both.
However, injuries and regression have left them very susceptible to left-handed pitching in the second half of the season.
Since the All-Star break, the Giants are 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, barely better than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have a .630 OPS over that stretch and rely very heavily on Patrick Bailey and Wilmer Flores, especially since Mitch Haniger went out early in the season.
That’s great news for Max Fried who has been dominant since returning from his own injury. Fried is in the top 10% of all pitchers in hard hit rate, average exit velocity, barrel rate, walk rate, xBA, xSLG, and xERA at 2.04. Simply put he’s one of the best arms in baseball and important for this matchup he’s one of the best left-handed arms in the MLB.
The Giants bullpen is also strong and they’re going with another bullpen day, but their relievers lead the league in innings and are often heavily taxed. They do have a 3.73 ERA for the season, but I feel a lot better backing Fried and Altanta’s bats than the San Fran bullpen and a lineup led by Wilmer Flores.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change