A pair of young pitchers off to hot starts will match up today as Bryce Elder’s Braves travel to take on Kris Bubic’s Royals.
When you try to consider who’s start is for real, the career numbers help to paint a better picture.
One of these pitchers has struggled in each year of his career and that’s why I’m fading him and his team. Which one is it? Keep reading to find out.
Braves vs. Royals odds, run line and total
Braves vs. Royals prediction and pick
Bubic is off to an insanely good start to this season, with a 1.64 ERA and 13 strikeouts across his first 11 innings of 2023 in a pair of starts against the Giants and Blue Jays.
However, he’s posted an ERA north of 4.30 in all three of his seasons at the MLB level and I think he’s due for some regression to the mean today.
Bubic particularly struggles against lefties, posting a .372 batting average against and 6.49 ERA against left-handed hitters last season.
Though the Braves don’t have a ton of left-handed hitters, players like Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies could be in line to do some damage. Olson is one to watch especially, considering that he is 2-for-3 with a pair of home runs in three career plate appearances against Bubic.
Elder’s hot start is much easier to believe in. The 23-year-old posted a 3.17 ERA across 54 innings as a rookie last season and has been one of Atlanta’s best pitchers so far in ‘23 with zero earned runs allowed in 12 ⅓ innings.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is 28th in MLB in runs per game this season and is 23rd in the league in home runs.
Even if Bubic pitches well, there’s no guarantee that the Royals’ bullpen holds up their end of the bargain. Kansas City pitchers have allowed 2.31 runs per game from the 6th-9th innings this year (23rd in MLB) after posting the worst mark in the league last year (2.18 runs per game).
Expect the Braves offense to put together a rally at some point in this game, possibly sparked by an extra-base hit from Olson or Albies.
I’ll back Elder to continue his hot start and bet on Bubic and the KC bullpen to revert back to their typical numbers against a dangerous Atlanta offense.
Pick: Braves Run Line (+105)
Bonus Pick: Matt Olson Home Run
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.