Braves vs. Pirates prediction and odds for Monday, August 7 (Spencer Strider Day)

The Pirates earned a split in a four-game set over the weekend, but things will be a lot tougher against Atlanta this week.

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99)
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

It was a surprisingly tough weekend for the Atlanta Braves who ended up dropping two of three games to the Cubs at Wrigley Field and now they’ll stay in the NL Central and look to rebound with four games against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh split with the Brewers in a four-game set to get to 50-61 while the Braves are 70-39 despite the two losses.

The Braves will send Spencer Strider to the mound for the 23rd time this year. Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA and the Pirates will counter with Osvaldo Bido who is 2-2 in nine outings with a 5.18 ERA. 

The Braves are big road favorites at PNC Park today with their ace on the mound. Let’s get into the odds. 

Braves vs. Pirates odds, run line and total

Braves vs. Pirates prediction and pick

It’s finally that time of the year when we get 2.5 runs on the run line. Vegas is very hesitant to do it early in the year, but by now we know how incredibly good the Atlanta Braves are and how bad the Pirates can be. Pittsburgh has some intriguing young hitters in their lineup with Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen at the heart of it, but they’re no match for Strider, and certainly cannot outslug the firepower that Atlanta has 1-9. 

Strider has a staggering 208 strikeouts to just 38 walks with a stellar 2.90 FIP. He’s had a few ugly starts including one recently against the White Sox that got a bit ugly, but generally he’s one of the most unhittable pitchers in the entire MLB. The Pirates have faced him once in his career and he went 5.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. I’d bet today will be even better.  

Osvaldo Bido on the other hand isn’t nearly as dominant but has shown flashes of real success. Bido has a 3.90 FIP which is encouraging, but 31 strikeouts to 14 walks in 33.0 innings isn’t outstanding. Bido has a below-average fly ball rate and is 71st percentile in average exit velocity, so he’s only allowed two home runs this season, but facing Atlanta is a whole different story and I’m certainly not expecting some type of pitcher’s duel. 

The under is a bit intriguing, but realistically I see this game getting out of hand with the Braves easily covering the 2.5 runs. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change