Before Wednesday's matchup against the Diamondbacks, the Atlanta Braves' playoff chances are not looking great. Looking at Baseball Reference's 2025 playoff odds, the Braves currently have a 17.9% chance of making the postseason right now. While even that seems pretty generous right now given that Atlanta is not playing well and they are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot at the moment, at least one MLB expert seems to think that the Braves still have a decent shot.
Despite much of the evidence (and the standings) currently pointing to disappointment this season, MLB's Will Leitch dug a bit deeper and found multiple reasons to be optimistic about the Braves going forward this season, although that doesn't mean getting to the postseason will be easy.
Braves still have the ingredients for a playoff run, but the strength of the NL may be the biggest problem
Leitch does a really nice job of breaking down what has been the Braves' biggest problems this season and honestly, it does make one feel better. He correctly points out that not only do the predictive stats still really like the Braves roster and that their starting pitching staff is still elite, but Atlanta has gotten pretty unlucky to be the position they are in and they shouldn't keep losing close games as much as they have so far.
That much isn't all that new. Everyone knows that the Braves have talent on their roster and with the recent return of Ronald Acuña Jr., the offense should get a boost assuming Marcell Ozuna's injury doesn't become a bigger problem. However, there are some concerns with Atlanta's path to the postseason.
In addition to a less robust lineup these days and the fact that AJ Smith-Shawver's elbow injury is yet another test of the Braves' already dwindling pitching depth, the National League is just really good right now. While only a couple teams in the AL are legitimately scary, there are around half a dozen teams at least right now in the NL that are going to be real contenders whether the Braves turn things around or not.
So what does this mean for the Braves in 2025? Honestly, it is hard to say. They certainly aren't going to make it to the postseason playing like they have recently and constantly blowing close games. However, even if they do get back on track, they still have a lot of work ahead of them as the other elite teams aren't showing many signs of slowing down.