Bryce Elder earned an All-Star selection in 2023, spent most of 2024 in Triple-A, and started this season by allowing 12 runs in 15 IP. But in his last five starts, he’s thrown 29 innings with a 3.10 ERA, and had the lineup offered just a bit more run support and the bullpen done its job, could have won all five games.
However, that did not stop the Braves from optioning Elder back to Gwinnett on Thursday. To understand why Atlanta found him expendable, we have to dig into his numbers a bit.
Like real estate, good pitching is all about location, location, ocation
Bryce Elder’s never had great pure stuff. He has to locate his pitches well, or they turn into extra-base hits. His 2023 All-Star selection came after a strong first half fueled by a high GB rate and a well-located slider. After the break, opponents’ slugging percentage jumped from .364 to .429, and he walked more and struck out fewer batters.
In 2024, he threw more sliders than in fewer games, but batters crushed them (.608 SLG%) because he left too many pitches in the zone. We’ve heard a lot about the changed grip and how his slider is better, but is it?
Unfortunately, Bryce Elder's "stuff" just isn't good enough to keep this up
Stuff + says 2024 was a better year for his slider stuff-wise (107) than 2025 (104), but a significant improvement in location - 100 in 2024 and 111 this year. It also shows a significant improvement in his sinker, but it’s still a 90-grade pitch, and batters are roasting it with a .580 slug.
Without pinpoint location, Elder once again becomes a very hittable pitcher, and that is what ultimately cost him his spot in the rotation.
That’s a Wrap
I hate to seem like a downer, but Elder can’t sustain this success. He understands that he has to stay strong, saying after the last game that if he lets his posture slip, he loses location. As the season goes on, all players wear down. As Elder tires, his location will slip as it did in 2023, opponents’ BABIP will improve to league average or better, and he won’t be as effective.
With AJ Smith-Shawver finding his footing and Spencer Strider returning, Elder should slip to sixth on the totem pole. This isn’t to say he isn’t important; the Braves will use him a lot to make sure the top of the rotation is well-rested down the stretch.