Few Atlanta Braves fans would characterize the team as being lucky over the last couple of years. If someone important could get hurt, they have, and if the team could fall short in a key spot, they usually have since the start of 2024.
Every team has short spells where everything seems to go wrong, but few teams have had to deal with the run of rotten fortune as long as the Braves have, despite having one of the most talented rosters in baseball, including the reigning Rookie of the Year, Drake Baldwin. That does not mean things could not be far, far worse. Can you imagine what watching this team the last couple of seasons would be like without Chris Sale or Matt Olson being awesome? One shudders to think about it.
In the case of Baldwin, it is easy to forget just how lucky they got with Baldwin. Not only did they draft him in a spot that normally doesn't produce players of his caliber, but the timing of his emergence couldn't have been much better. In fact, after being named to The Athletic's All-Under-25 team recently, it looks like Atlanta has managed to unearth yet another star-level talent against all odds.
Drake Baldwin's emergence is proof that the Braves aren't always unlucky, but they need more than him
Going back to the 2022 MLB Draft, Baldwin was a well-regarded draft prospect, but was hardly seen as a potential star. Analytics-forward teams really liked him, but catchers Kevin Parada, Daniel Susac, Dalton Rushing, and Logan Tanner all went ahead of Baldwin before the Braves scooped him up out of Missouri State in the third round. Catchers drafted in the third round have had success, including JT Realmuto and Cal Raleigh, but they have been exceptions to the rule.
Instead, Baldwin impressed at every stop in the minor leagues en route to a spring training invite in 2025, where some thought he could make the team at some point that season. Well, Baldwin did his thing in camp, and then Sean Murphy got hurt (again), which forced the Braves' hand. Baldwin was the full-time catcher all of a sudden, and while he got off to a bit of a slow start, he quickly became an integral part of Atlanta's lineup the rest of the way.
By definition, that is luck. Getting a guy like Baldwin that late in the draft is very difficult, and good scouting put the Braves in position to get lucky, but it is still pretty wild how quickly he became a "dude". Moreover, having Baldwin be ready when Murphy went down was extremely fortunate. Good luck has been rarer than fans would want when it comes to the Braves lately, but Baldwin is already a silver lining to those dark times.