When the Atlanta Braves beat the Rockies on Monday, the result should have been expected. The Braves have been red hot after one of the worst starts in franchise history and Colorado might challenge last year's White Sox for the worst team every assembled in MLB. However, nothing was certain with Bryce Elder on the mound.
Elder was pressed into service into the Braves' rotation after Reynaldo Lopez got hurt and Spencer Strider was still out and few were happy about it. While he did have a great first half in 2023 that earned him an All-Star appearance, Elder has since been relegated to sixth or seventh starter status thanks to his propensity to give up a lot of contact. On Monday, it looked like we could end up seeing more of the same as the pitiful Rockies immediately put three runs on the board against Elder in the first inning.
Again, things worked out as Elder settled down, the Rockies stink, and the offense was humming along like it has for a couple weeks now. However, Atlanta really needs to figure out a different solution to their rotation issues because Elder just ain't it.
Braves continuing to play with fire by keeping Bryce Elder in their rotation
A cursory look at Elder's numbers in 2025 already raises cause for alarm. His 5.3 K/9 strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and this is for a guy that already never missed many bats. His walk rate is mediocre and his 5.88 FIP suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate to possess the already not-great 5.33 ERA. Too much contact, too many home runs, and too many baserunners. Again, not a recipe for success.
Things don't get better if you look a bit deeper into Elder's profile. His fastball velocity, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and extension all rank in the bottom 10% in all of baseball in 2025. The only thing that grades out positively for Elder's profile is that he gets a lot of ground balls, but the rest is mediocre at best. Even Elder's best pitch, his slider, only gets to the middle of the pack in terms of run value.
Unfortunately, there isn't an easy solution the Braves' Elder problem right now. AJ Smith-Shawver is already expected to get called back up on Tuesday to start and the rest of the Braves' top pitching prospects are either not playing well and/or are too far away to trust with big league starts. There is a chance that Atlanta could turn to names such as Lucas Braun or Blake Burkhalter at some point this season, but any more immediate fix to the Braves rotation may require a bit more creativity.