Back in 2022, the Atlanta Braves were blessed with having two rookies that were far and away the best rookies in their class. Michael Harris II ended up winning thanks to posting an .853 OPS with strong defense, but there is an argument that second place finisher Spencer Strider was even better with a 2.67 ERA and gaudy strikeout numbers. What is truly wild, though, is that history could be poised to repeat itself with Drake Baldwin and AJ Smith-Shawver.
Given the state of the Braves roster and what we saw last season, few realistically thought that either Smith-Shawver or Baldwin would be in the position they are right now. Smith-Shawver has been very uneven to start his career and with Sean Murphy around, there wasn't a clear path to playing time for Baldwin. However, things broke in such a way that not only have both players become integral to the Braves' roster, but may be the current frontrunners for NL Rookie of the Year.
Braves' AJ Smith-Shawver and Drake Baldwin early frontrunners for NL Rookie of the Year
Coming into the season, the two Braves rookies were not on the radar when it comes to Rookie of the Year. The Dodgers' Roki Sasaki was getting all the attention with names like Luisangel Acuna, Dylan Crews, and others in the mix as well. However, a rough start from Sasaki and both Smith-Shawver and Baldwin showing out has changed the Rookie of the Year odds quite a bit.
Baldwin has the easiest case at the moment. Despite only playing in 29 games, his 172 wRC+ is tops among all qualified rookies in baseball and his 1.4 fWAR is second among rookie hitters to the A's Jacob Wilson who has played in 16 more games. On a rate basis, Baldwin is clearly the best rookie hitter so far and, if voters' historical lean towards voting for hitters is any indication, that makes him a favorite in the NL race. Not bad for a guy that was pressed into service because Murphy got hurt.
Smith-Shawver's case is a bit trickier, but still strong. He suffers a little bit as a starter who hasn't started a full slate of games due to being in the minors for a portion of the season, he still ranks sixth by fWAR among rookie arms and his 2.33 ERA has only been bested by the White Sox's Shane Smith. While the path for AJSS is tougher because he is a pitcher who are apparently held to a higher standard in ROY voting if you name isn't Paul Skenes, he is going to be firmly in the conversation if he keeps this up.
It is fun to have this kind of déjà vu. At the end of the 2022 season, everyone had an opinion as to which of Harris II or Strider should win the Rookie of the Year hardware. If trends hold, we could be having the exact same type of conversation with Smith-Shawver and Baldwin at the end of this season.