When Jurickson Profar was suspended near the start of the season after testing positive for PEDs, the overwhelming response from fans was anger. Profar was the highest profile Braves signing from last offseason and he immediately was set to sit out 80 games because of his own very stupid mistake. However, another side effect of that suspension was some doubts as to whether or not what Profar did in 2024 with the Padres was actually real and sustainable.
By a wide margin, Profar's 2024 season with San Diego was a career year and it was completely fair to wonder if the sudden spike in production was on the level. After all, Profar did just test positive for PEDs and his breakout in 2024 came out of nowhere. At the time, Profar credited changes to his swing and approach, but the possibility remained that the juice was responsible.
Since his return, Profar has started to answer some of those doubts at least. He has continued to provide real power at the top of the lineup and has been one of the Braves best hitters. However, the one thing that was a lingering doubt beyond things that PEDs could have helped with was the spike in his OBP last seasonand thankfully, that has also stuck around.
Doubts over whether Jurickson Profar's 2024 OBP was sustainable seem to have been answered
Unless you just through some hoops about how pitchers pitched to Profar differently because of the benefits of taking PEDs he experienced (which is possible), Profar's ability to consistently get on base probably wasn't artificially-inflated. However, his 2024 numbers in that regard did stand out compared to his career norms and led some to believe it wouldn't last long before he was ever suspended.
From 2013-2023, Profar averaged a .323 OBP which is decidedly not great. Hitting .239 over that span didn't help, but this was the number he had despite getting hit by 49 pitches in addition to a fair number of walks. Even in his good year 2020 where he hit .278 before his breakout, Profar still only managed a fine, if unexciting .343 OBP which was his career-high up until that point.
Fast forward to 2024 and Profar's .380 OBP that season certainly looks suspect from a statistical perspective. The jump in his batting average helped a good bit, but it was Profar's suddenly very consistent ability to get on base that felt unsustainable given his track record. However, in the 67 games since Profar has returned, he has maintained a .362 OBP. All of sudden, it feels like this could very well be who Profar is.
Questions will continue to be asked as to whether or not Profar needed to cheat to be good until he proves otherwise and that is completely on him. Given how long he lingered on the free agent market, one wonders if teams were already suspecting something wasn't right. For the moment at least, it does seem like Profar's ability to get on base is real and, at minimum, that helps the case that Atlanta's investment in Profar won't be a complete waste.