Braves fans need to temper expectations for Spencer Strider’s return for one crucial reason

Steven Teal

Feb 10, 2026; North Port, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Strider (99) works out during spring training workouts. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Atlanta Braves fans are eager for Spencer Strider to join the rotation in Colorado this Sunday. The rotation has been doing its best to hold things down with injuries to a plethora of pitchers.

Fortunately, Strider's rehab went well, and he's ready to make his season debut. While it would be amazing for him to come back from his strained left oblique, striking everyone out, fans need to temper their expectations for his first start.

Spencer Strider's first start is more about getting back into the swing of things than excellence

It's going to be a tough environment for his first start. Coors isn't a fun place for pitchers, as Grant Holmes learned on Friday night. His breaking balls didn't have the movement he's used to, which helps generate swing and miss.

If Strider's slider isn't breaking as much, the altitude is most likely the culprit. Seeing him come back and toss six shutout innings would be amazing. However, what's most important for everyone to monitor is his velocity and spin rate.

Spencer Strider's latest rehab start was just peachy 🍑

Wearing specialty jerseys to celebrate the state's moniker, the @Braves righty sat 95.2 mph on his fastball and racked up 7 K's with 17 swings-and-misses in 5 IP. pic.twitter.com/wozDpg1pAQ
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) April 26, 2026

Almost everyone will focus on his velocity, but Strider may never hit 99 mph again. What matters most is his spin rate and ability to get batters to chase. His induced vertical break on the four-seam fastball will be the most important thing. Well, that and him getting through the start healthy.

Strider struggled with this last season as his IVB averaged 16.4 in 2025. For reference, his IVP in 2022 and 2023 was 17.7 and 18.4 inches, respectively. As of his final rehab start on Sunday, his IVP is back around the 18 mark now.

His velocity is decent as well, topping out at almost 97 mph. That will be more than enough if Strider's IVB remains where it is right now. After three starts between High-A and Triple-A, Strider compiled a 1.42 ERA over 12.2 innings. He walked five and struck out 18, which is wonderful to see. Hopefully, he can translate all of that good work to the MLB level and earn his first win of the season.

Steven Teal

Co-Expert at House That Hank Built. I've been writing about Braves baseball since 2018 and 5 of those years have been with HTHB. I received an undergraduate degree in Sport Managment while attending Georgia Southern University. I also hold a Master of Arts in Communication. My love for sport journalism began during my time in college and it's only grown over the years. I love nothing more than covering the Atlanta Braves and bringing my thoughts to the best fan base in baseball. Some of my time is also spent writing about the Red Sox over at BoSox Injection.