Don’t get wrapped up in a player’s position on the list. Both Baseball America’s top-10 list and the latest available list from MLB Pipeline includes eight players of the same position (pitcher) - two recovering from UCL replacement surgery - but agree on ranks of only four.
The Braves have pitching prospects by the dozens, and they’ll need them
The club’s pitching depth has come through during their seven-year run of postseason appearances, and they’ll rely on that depth to provide innings in 2025 as well. As you read this, remember that projections of future success are in the eye of the beholder; we’ve seen low-ranked/unranked prospects succeed and top prospects vanish overnight.
The players are listed in reverse order of BA’s list. I’ll include Pipeline’s rank and a brief summary of each player’s projection.
10. Garrett Bauman RHP (MLBP 16) BA Grades FB: 55 | Sl: 45 | Ch: 45 | Control: 55
Bauman’s a 6-foot-8, 245-pound right-hander who threw 92+ innings in 18 starts and one relief appearance for Augusta, pitching to a 3.42 ERA, striking out 82 and walking 23. His heater sits at 93-94 and touched 98 with lots of movement.
BA suggests that he might add a two-seam fastball to his mix and “has the look of a workhorse-like back-end starter.” Pipeline agrees but suggests it will take a while for him to arrive, but he only turned 20 in August, so he has time. He’ll start 2025 with Rome.
9. Lucas Braun RHP (MLBP 21) BA Grades FB: 50 | Cu: 45 | Sl: 50 | Ch: 45 | Control: 60
Braun finished 2024 with Mississippi and all Braves prospects by pitching to a 3.26 ERA over 143+ innings, striking out 162 while posting a 3.26 ERA and walking 42. Braun moved to the third base side of the rubber as a pro. BA notes his delivery adds “some deception thanks to a low release height and the angle created by a crossfire landing.”
He features a 93 mph fastball that can touch 95-96, a mid-80s slider, and a 78-82 mph curveball; both of which are a work in progress. He throws strikes, and while he will get some Ks, he tries to induce weak contact and relies on his defense. He may start 2025 with Mississippi, but should get to Gwinnett quickly and could make his debut this season.
8. Drue Hackenberg RHP (MLBP 9) BA Grades FB: 50 | Cu: 55 | Ch: 45. | CFB: 40 | Control: 40
Hackenberg started the season with Rome and shot through the system to end it at Gwinnett. His 144 Ks were second only to Braun’s 162 in the system outs, and his 53.9% GB rate was third in the system among pitchers with at least 50 IP. Both of his fastballs are low 90s offerings, his two-seamer generates a lot of groundballs, and his curve is one of the system's best, according to BA.
Hackenberg projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, and you’ll likely see him in Atlanta in 2025.
7. JR Ritchie RHP (MLBP 7) BA Grades FB: 50 | Sl: 55 | Ch: 55 | Control: 55
Ritchie had UCL surgery in 2023 and didn’t pitch until June this year. After returning, Ritchie’s velocity was down, but his command was back to pre-injury levels. When his velocity returns, Ritchie projects a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a mid-to-high 90s heater and improved breaking balls. He’ll likely start the year with Rome, but could open the season in Double-A if his Spring Training goes well.
6. Owen Murphy RHP (MLBP 6) BA Grades FB: 60 | Cu: 50 | Sl: 55 | Control: 50
Murphy started the season by pitching to a 1.98 ERA in 41 innings over seven starts with Rome then his UCL gave up. When healthy, Murphy features a low 90s FB that, according to BA, plays up thanks to a lower release height and elite riding life highlighted by nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break. If he returns to form after his rehab, Murphy projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
5. Hurston Waldrep RHP (MLBP 3) BA Grades FB: 50 | Sl: 55 | Split: 60 | Control: 40
Waldrep’s pitch grades are those of a two or three-A starter, and BA characterizes his arsenal as a three-pitch mix (with) a 94-96 mph fastball that touches 98-99…an upper-80s slider and mid-80s split-changeup, but there are issues. He throws a mid-80s slider that peaks above average and a split-change that could be legendary because it ducks and dives so dramatically.
BA concluded that “Waldrep could find success… (with his) high slider and splitter…but he’ll need to throw more strikes…If not, he (end up) in a mid-leverage reliever role.”
4. Ignacio Nacho Alvarez 3B (MLBNP 4) BA Grades Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 40 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50
BA calls Alvarez “the best pure hitter in the Braves’ system.” That says more about the system than Nacho. He walks a lot (13.7%), doesn’t strike out much (16.9%), and hadn’t shown any power until he reached Gwinnett last year. He hit 10 homers in 289 PA to double his home run total as a pro, but looks more like a doubles hitter than a power threat.
Alvarez reportedly has good hands and a strong arm, and the Braves insist he could become a good third baseman. 10 homers makes him a less than ideal fit at a power position like third base, and his lack of range means he can't play shortstop every day. I don’t see him replacing Riley, and I doubt he’s got the range for second, so he’s a man without a position, a future utility man.
3. Cam Caminiti LHP (MLBP 1) BA Grades FB: 70 | Cu: 40 | Sl: 50 | Ch: 55 | Control: 55
Cam Caminiti is an arm to dream on. In case you’re wondering, Caminiti is former Atlanta Brave and 1996 NL MVP Ken Caminiti’s cousin. The Braves made him their first selection in this year’s draft at 17 years old. He signed in time to make one start before the season ended, striking out four of the 12 batters he faced.
In high school, he featured a consistently mid-90s fastball that touched 98 mph and showed great late life, a curve, a slider, and a change. BA says the Braves are working to improve the shape of his heater and figure out which one of his breaking pitching to focus on (probably the slider). He’s not arriving any time soon, but if you want an arm to dream on, Caminiti is that guy.
2. AJ Smith-Shawver RHP (MLBP 2) BA Grades Fb: 60 | Cu: 45 | Sl: 55 | Ch: 50 | Control: 45
Braves fans saw a little of AJSS in Atlanta in 2023 and 2024. He throws easy gas – a fastball that rests comfortably at 95 and sneaks up to 100 without visible additional effort. In 2023, his heater showed good late life, but it wasn’t as good in 2024, perhaps because he was making adjustments to improve his control. Lack of movement made it easier to hit, something he addressed by leaning on his slider and split change more often.
BA’s projection points to command being a big problem for Smith-Shawver. They say, “He’s too often effectively wild overall, not precise with his fastball location and not economical enough to pitch deep into games.” He turned 22 a month ago, so he has time to improve his command and become the two or three starter that his stuff suggests. Alternatively, he could become a late-inning reliever like Joe Jimenez.
1. Drake Baldwin C (MLBP 5) BA Grades Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 30 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50
Baldwin fell to the Braves in the third round of the 2022 draft. The 24 games he appeared in after signing were enough to start him at High-A Rome in 2023. He decided he didn’t like the food at the lower levels and sped through the system to end the season with 12 games in AAA.
Baldwin started 2024 with 52 games in Mississippi, then returned to Gwinnett and batted .298/.407/.484/.891, hit 12 homers, and walked 54 times while striking out 52 in 334 PA. That performance made the decision to let Travis d’Arnaud walk away after this season easier. Baldwin is a LHH, making him the perfect catching tandem partner for Sean Murphy.
Honorable Mentions
MLB Pipeline ranked Jose Perdomo eighth in their top-10 list. That ranking shows a lot of confidence as the young (18) shortstop hasn’t played a game anywhere but the Dominican Summer League and only eight games there.
Pipeline inserted Cade Kuehler as their tenth-ranked prospect (MLBP Grades FB: 60 | Cu: 55 | Sl: 60 | Ch: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45. BA had him as number 11 on their September list so he may move up in their next list. BA likes his stuff but says, in short, that Kuehler has “a below-average delivery with moving parts and a short, compact arm action.” Pipeline likes his stuff better but agrees that “he hasn’t always been able to repeat his delivery to throw strikes.”
Kuehler is working as a starter, but BA says, “There’s significant reliever risk with Kuehler based on his delivery,” but thinks maybe the Braves can ‘develop’ him in the same way they did with Strider.
That’s a Wrap
The Braves have always believed in drafting pitching, and trading for everything else. That’s a sound strategy if your crop of pitchers is deep enough and strong enough to buy the everyday player you need.
Recently, the system hasn’t had enough highly-ranked arms to trade, and when they did, they held them too long. The Braves have needs beyond pitching, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see one or more leave in a trade in the next two months. All that’s to say, don’t fall in love with any of them; they may be on the Red Sox tomorrow.