Normally, Atlanta Braves fans would be thrilled for the Mets to make a signing that looks like a stinker. While Steve Cohen's pockets may be deep, New York has had a penchant for making some less than stellar use of his riches over the last few years. With the word that the Mets signed Frankie Montas, a pitcher who posted 4.84 ERA in 2024 and who didn't look much like his pre-surgery self, to a two year, $34 million deal on Sunday night, that pattern seems to have continued.
Assuming Montas is indeed not worth the money (which remains to be seen), Braves fans should be thrilled that the Mets are wasting their money and roster spots. However, New York's move also could create some downstream effects that may make Atlanta's plans this offseason a bit more difficult.
Overpay by Mets for Frankie Montas. Feels just a bit like David Stearns missing Boras’ ring. A down payment. Doesn’t take them out on any of the other SPs. Boras executing the same strategy as last offseason. Finding the mid tier FAs homes before the big fish.
— MLBExecutiveBurner (@HotStoveintel) December 2, 2024
Braves pursuit of Max Fried, starting pitching this offseason just got a bit harder after Montas' signing
The fundamental problem here is that the Braves have been pretty heavily connected to the starting pitching this offseason. Atlanta clearly still covets a Garrett Crochet trade and they have been connected to other starters looking for shorter deals this offseason including Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, and others. There is no indication that Atlanta was looking at Montas this offseason and there is good reason for that not to be the case.
What Montas' deal DOES do is probably raise the price of the types of guys the Braves have been looking at. Sure, Crochet's value probably remains unchanged as the White Sox would want a ransom for him either way, but both Eovaldi and Manaea are now likely to point to Montas' contract and want considerably more than what he got as both are strictly better arms. It's possible that New York is just trying to make Scott Boras happy here, but the reverberations will felt across the entire market.
There could also be some impacts on Max Fried's next contract as well and, as far as we know, the Braves haven't given up hope on a reunion just yet. Between Blake Snell's contract with the Dodgers as well as Montas' deal, the price of pitching just continues to go up. Fried is already attracting a lot of interest in free agency as things stand, so one wonders how long the Braves can stay in the bidding.
In short, the good news is that the Mets filled one of their rotation spots with a guy that the Braves are perfectly fine with avoiding themselves and is a big risk for New York. However, that doesn't mean that Atlanta didn't get hurt (if marginally) as a result of signing Montas.