Atlanta Braves championship hopes require bullpen help

While the Atlanta Braves have three potential closers in the bullpen, only Smith has a history of success as a closer, and his first season wearing the Tomahawk wasn’t a resounding success. The market still has former closers available, and these two are among the best.

100 miles Giles

The Phillies had Ken – 100 miles – Giles earmarked as a future closer, but after two seasons where he appeared in 113 games, threw 115-2/3 innings at a 1.56 ERA, 1.82 FIP, and a 246 ERA+, decided they wanted Mark Appel, Harold Arauz (minors), Thomas Eshelman, Brett Oberholtzer, and Vince Velasquez more.

Appel, the stud pick, turned into a dud, and Velasquez became the best part of that deal for Philly.

Giles pitched well enough through August but entered September with 57 appearances in the Astros’ first 133 games. He was worn out, and it showed, though the numbers made it look worse than it was. He lost confidence and was beaten up badly by the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers.

His struggles continued in 2018 and the Astros essentially swapped a closer they’d lost faith in for a closer the Blue Jays wanted off their books. In Toronto, Giles pitched much better, though once again, his ERA makes it look worse.

He appeared in 21 games after moving north, and in 20 of those gave up four runs in 19 innings for a 1.89 ERA. His other outing lasted 2/3 of an inning and five earned runs scored, but the Jays saw past his final ERA to the underlying stud closer they’d acquired.

In 2019 Giles appeared in 53 games, threw 53 innings at a 1.87 ERA, 2.27 FIP, striking out 83 and walking 17, one of those intentionally. Baseball Savant shows that Statcast ranks Giles stuff and ability to get hitters out in the 99th percentile in 2019

Atlanta Braves and Big T?

Once one of the league’s preeminent closers, Trevor Rosenthal once meant game over when he entered for the Cardinals.

As their closer from 2014 through 2017, Rosenthal appeared in 235 games, finished 159, and saved 118 while throwing 227 innings at a 3.13 ERA, 2.77 FIP, striking out 302 and walking 116, eight of those intentional. Then his UCL gave up.

After missing the entire 2018 season, Rosenthal had the sort of season many UCL replacement-pitchers face, looking for his location and never really finding it.

He joined the Nationals. His first seven games weren’t stellar. To make things worse,  he caught a viral infection that sidelined him from April 25 through June 5.  The Nationals released him at the end of June; he joined the Tigers but fared no better there.

He signed with the Royals and pitched well in 14 games before the Padres acquired him to shore up their bullpen. Rosenthal thrived as a Padre, appearing in nine games, throwing ten innings, striking out 17, and walking one without allowing a run.

As you might imagine, Baseball Savant shows Big T’s 2020 pitches for both teams among the best in the league.

While it is a small sample size, it shows his command and control are back, as is his velocity.

That’s a wrap

The Atlanta Braves bullpen looks good, but there’s reason to question whether it’s close to the level we saw last season. Projections show the pen coming in around 480 innings, which makes it appear they’ll cover the innings. However, it isn’t that simple.

Covering 500 innings with the pen as constructed means no one gets injured, and everyone pitches as projected or better.  The last time that happened was . . . never. The Braves bullpen did cover 577-2/3 innings in 2019 but needed 20 relievers to do it.

Only two players are likely to move between Gwinnett and Atlanta, which puts a lot of pressure on the arms that stay. Adding two veteran arms with a history of throwing 70 innings a season would make that goal more attainable.