Atlanta Braves: Top 5 First-Round Draft Picks Since 1980
When you think about the Atlanta Braves and first-round picks, do you think Chipper Jones or Mike Kelly? Adam Wainwright or Chad Hutchinson? We dive into the top picks since 1980.
The Atlanta Braves have had 32 picks between 1980-2015. Today we will take a look at some interesting numbers from those players and take a closer look at the top five players drafted in the first round by the Braves since 1980.
- The 32 first-round picks have generated a total rWAR of 251.1.
- Of the 251.1 rWAR, 162.7 is attributed to Chipper Jones, Adam Wainwright, and Jason Heyward.
- The top five players in rWAR make up 77.34% of the total rWAR of the 32 players.
- Outside of the top five, the average career rWAR was 2.1 per player.
- Only seven of the 32 players broke double-digits in rWAR.
- 43.75% of all of the first-round picks between1980-2015 posted a total rWAR of zero or below.
Before we get to the top five first-round picks since 1980, let’s take a moment to give a nod to some players who were recently selected in the first round but haven’t had time to prove themselves yet.
Ian Anderson was taken third overall in 2016. Anderson is currently rated as MLB.com’s 37th best prospect in the game.
Kolby Allard was taken 14th overall in the 2015 draft, 14 spots ahead of Mike Soroka. With so much starting pitching in the pipeline, the Braves were able to trade Allard to Texas last season for their closer, Chris Martin.
This next guy could find himself inside the top five very soon. After just one full season, Mike Soroka has the 11th most rWAR of these 32 first-round draft picks.
Notables: In case you were curious, Jeff Francouer was taken 23rd overall in 2002 and finished his career with a 6.8 rWAR, which placed him ninth on the list.
For your viewing pleasure, I’ll provide a full list of all 32 players on the final page. In the meantime, enjoy the Braves’ top five first-round draft picks since 1980.
5. Atlanta Braves 1st Round Draft Pick – Steve Avery
Steve Avery was drafted third overall in the 1988 MLB Draft by the Braves. He accumulated the fifth-most rWAR of any player drafted in the first round by the Braves since 1980. In his second season (1991) with the big club, he went 18-8 in 35 starts with a 3.38 ERA. The 21-year-old finished sixth in the NL Cy Young Award voting.
The magical worst-to-first 1991 season ended with a trip to the World Series for the Atlanta Braves. On the way there, Steve Avery compiled the highest rWAR total of his career with a 5.2. How in the world he pitched 233.2 innings and lowered his ERA to 3.20 the following season only earned him 2.3 rWAR is a conversation for another time…or even in 1993 when he posted a 2.94 ERA in 223.1 starts – another time.
That 1991 season was magical and Steve Avery was like Gandalf on a team of magically-inclined heroes in the starting rotation. Glavine led the way with 246.2 innings and a 2.55 ERA. 34-year-old Charlie Leibrandt started 36 games and finished with a 3.49 ERA. Young John Smoltz rebounded from a rough first half (2-11, 5.16) with a spectacular second half (12-2, 2.63) to finish with 3.80 ERA in 36 starts.
Then, of course, we have the youngest member of the rotation that season, our guy Steve Avery and his 3.38 ERA in 35 starts. What an incredible rotation.
All four guys exceeded 210 innings pitched and the highest ERA was 3.80. Avery continued his high-level of play into the postseason. In the NLCS he started two games against the Pirates. In Game 2 in Pittsburgh he went 8.1 strong innings, striking out nine and allowing nary a run. Of the six hits he allowed, three were infield hits with only one out being made in the outfield.
His next start came in Game 6, with the Pirates up three games to two. It was win or go home for the Braves. They needed Avery to deliver one more time to keep their season alive. After hit 8.1 inning shutout in Game 2, the Braves liked their chances.
The Pirates knew what they were up against. In the top of the first inning, Lonnie Smith was on third with one out and Terry Pendleton up to bat. Pittsburgh already had the infield playing in to prevent a run. They weren’t expecting many opportunities to touch home plate in this game. They were right.
Avery put his superhero cape on as the second-youngest pitcher to ever win a Championship game to that point. Eight punchouts, 8.1 innings, and zero runs later: mission accomplished.
Avery cranked up the Ks in the 1991 postseason, striking out 17 hitters in 16.1 NLCS innings. Avery would be awarded the NLCS MVP, allowing absolutely zero runs in 16.1 innings.
4. Atlanta Braves 1st Round Draft Pick – Mike Minor
Mike Minor was drafted as the seventh overall pick of the 2009 MLB Draft by the Atlanta Braves out of Vanderbilt. He made his debut just over a year later in August of 2010. He entered the 2011 season as Baseball Prospectus’ 26th ranked prospect.
Minor was a polished pitcher by the time he was drafted. He started four games in Single-A before starting the 2010 season in AA-Mississippi. He made six starts in AAA-Gwinnett that season and found himself with the big-league club.
He exceeded his rookie limits in 2011 and pitched well in both 2011 and 2012 posting a 4.14 ERA in 15 starts in 2011 and 4.12 in 30 starts during the 2012 season. In 2013, Minor finally realized his potential, starting 32 games and posting a 3.21 ERA for the Braves in 204.2 innings. He went 13-9 for the division champs en route to a 96-win season.
Minor pitched most of 2014 with pain in his shoulder and his numbers suffered for it. He ended with a 4.77 ERA in 145.1 innings. He walked 44 batters which were close to the 46 he walked the previous season, but he did it in far fewer innings.
In the spring of 2015, he was diagnosed with rotator cuff inflammation and eventually required surgery. He was non-tendered by the Braves following the season and despite signing with the Royals, he did not pitch in 2016 either.
His shoulder caused a subpar season for the lefty in 2014 and then caused him to miss two straight years. When he finally returned to action, the Royals utilized him as a reliever in 2017. For the first time in his career, he didn’t start a game and still pitched significant innings. Minor gave the Royals 77.2 innings out of the pen and posted a fantastic 2.55 ERA while racking up 88 strikeouts.
In 2018, the Rangers signed Minor to a 3-year, $28 million deal and made him a starter again. In his age-30 season, he had overcome the injuries that nearly derailed his career and started 28 games for Texas. He went 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 157.0 innings.
This leads us to last season, Minor made his first All-Star game at the age of 31 for the Rangers. He finished the season with a 14-10 record and for the first time since 2013, he hit the 200-inning threshold. He finished with a 3.59 ERA and tied a career-high with 32 starts while striking out 200 batters.
Even though it wasn’t with the Braves, it has been a pleasure to watch Mike Minor reach his potential after overcoming so much adversity. He currently stands as the Braves’ fourth-best first-round draft pick since 1980.
3. Atlanta Braves 1st Round Draft Pick – Jason Heyward
Jason Heyward was drafted 14th overall by the Braves in the 2007 MLB Draft. After spraying homers into the executive parking lot in spring training, Bobby Cox famously compared the sound the ball made off his bat to that of Mickey Mantle’s and even Hank Aaron’s.
Heyward was the number one prospect in all of baseball heading into the 2010 season. With the crowd chanting his name, he blasted a home run over the right-field wall in his first at-bat.
Between 2010-2013 he posted an OPS+ of 115 with a .352 on-base percentage. In 2012, he splattered 27 dingers with 21 stolen bases. This is not even mentioning his elite-level defense. Then, with the Braves marching toward a 96-win season in which they would claim the NL East title, Heyward was struck in the face with a fastball from Jon Niese on August 21st.
He returned later in the season but only played in 104 total games. He still finished with a respectable 14 homers and a .349 OBP. Heyward hit a solid .271 in 2015 with a .351 OBP but his power was gone as he slugged .384.
Related Story. 10 Years of Top 10 Prospects. light
Heyward is a perfect example of how a player can sometimes be misjudged by their power output. The guy was getting on base at a .351 clip while playing perhaps the best defense in the league, and because he only hit 11 homers, people were down on him.
The Braves traded him away to the Cardinals prior to the 2015 season, the final year before he hit free agency. Heyward hit .293 with 13 homers and 23 steals that season and ended up 15th in MVP voting. He won his third Gold Glove and entered free agency with a big price tag on his head.
Heyward is one of the more underrated players in baseball. People expected so much power from him and while he has provided some power, he has given so much more. Heyward has five Gold Glove awards to his name and take a look at this list of most defensive runs saved since 2010 among outfielders:
Fangraphs OF DRS since 2010
- Jason Heyward – 143
- Brett Gardner – 117
- Alex Gordon – 112
- Mookie Betts – 112
- Josh Reddick – 81
- Ender Inciarte – 81
- Billy Hamilton – 73
- Gerardo Parra – 64
- Starling Marte – 62
- Kevin Pillar – 58
If you are saving 143 runs over ten seasons, it should be okay if you hit 5-10 less homers than people thought you would hit each season. Heyward’s production has led him to a 36.9 career rWAR through his age-30 season. As it stands, he is the third-best first-round pick by the Braves since 1980.
2. Atlanta Braves 1st Round Draft Pick – Adam Wainwright
There is much debate about whether trading Wainwright was the right decision, but it’s easy to make that call in retrospect. More often than not, prospects don’t turn into Adam Wainwrights. The Braves were in a win-now mode and they received two major leaguers that helped them “win now.”
J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero had career seasons for the Braves following the losses of Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez in free agency. The Braves would ride J.D. Drew and his .305 average, 31 homers, and 93 RBIs to a 13th consecutive NL East title.
Related Story. The trade that sent Adam Wainwright to the Cardinals. light
Even Marrero chipped in a .305 average with 10 homers in 90 games. The trade worked out as planned for both parties. However, now that the season is a thing of the past, fans tend to look back on it with remorse.
Adam Wainwright became one of the faces of the Cardinals’ franchise. This trade is still paying dividends right now. Wainwright had a resurgent season last year and went toe-to-toe with Mike Soroka in an epic pitcher’s duel that was Game 3 of the NLDS last season.
Wainwright has accumulated 40.5 rWAR in his major-league career, none of which has been with the team that drafted him. In 2,103.2 innings he has a phenomenal 3.39 ERA with 162 wins and 95 losses.
He helped the Cardinals to a World Series title in 2006 as a 24-year-old reliever and has been an All-Star three times. Wainwright made his mark on baseball history in 2006 as he earned four postseason saves, which included closing out the World Series in Game 5 against the Tigers.
1. Atlanta Braves 1st Round Draft Pick – Chipper Jones
If you knew Chipper Jones was drafted in the first round then you know he’s the man that takes the top spot on this list. Chipper was not only a first-round pick, but he was also the first pick of the entire draft in 1990.
Chipper helped lead the Braves to a World Series in his rookie year, won an MVP in 1999, is an eight-time All-Star, and is a member of the Hall of Fame.
He posted an incredible 85.3 rWAR throughout his illustrious career. Over 19 seasons he smashed 468 homers, 1,623 RBI, and stole 150 bases. He had a career OBP of .401 and a career slugging percentage of .529… again, this is over 19 season.
He had a streak of 14 straight seasons with 20 or more homers. He led the league in hitting with a .364 average and led the league in on-base percentage with a .470 percentage during his age-36 season in 2008.
Chipper finished his career with the most RBI (1,623) of any player whose primary position was third base. He was a major contributor on 11 of the Braves 14 consecutive division titles.
Chipper is not just the greatest first-round pick in Braves history based on total production, but he did it all with the Braves. One of the greatest players to ever step foot on a major-league field and we had the privilege of rooting for him as a part of our team for all 19 seasons.
Atlanta Braves Draft Picks from 1980 – 2015
This list goes to show you what an inexact science scouting a baseball player can be.
1980 – Ken Dayley // Pick 3 // 3.4 WAR
1980 – Jim Acker // Pick 21 // 5.6 WAR
1981 – Jay Roberts // Pick 12 // 0 WAR
1982 – Duane Ward // Pick 9 // 10.1 WAR
1984 – Drew Denson // Pick 19 // -0.1 WAR
1985 – Tommy Greene // Pick 14 // 7.2 WAR
1986 – Kent Merker // Pick 5 // 12 WAR
1987 – Derek Lilliquist Pick 6 // 4.7 WAR
1988 – Steve Avery // Pick 3 // 13.8 WAR
1989 – Tyler Houston // Pick 2 // 1.4 WAR
1990 – Chipper Jones // Pick 1 // 85.3 WAR
1991 – Mike Kelly // Pick 2 // 0.3 WAR
1992 – James Arnold // Pick 21 // -1.4 WAR
1994 – Jacob Shumate // Pick 27 // 0 WAR
1995 – Chad Hutchinson // Pick 26 // -0.5 WAR
1996 – A.J. Zapp // Pick 27 // 0 WAR
1997 – Troy Cameron // Pick 29 // 0 WAR
2000 – Adam Wainwright // Pick 29 // 40.5 WAR
2000 – Scott Thorman // Pick 30 // -1 WAR
2001 – Josh Burrus // Pick 29 // 0 WAR
2001 – Macay McBride // Pick 24 // -0.2 WAR
2002 – Jeff Francoeur // Pick 23 // 6.8 WAR
2005 – Joseph Devine // Pick 27 // 2 WAR
2006 – Cody Johnson // Pick 24 // 0 WAR
2007 – Jason Heyward // Pick 14 // 36.9 WAR
2009 – Mike Minor // Pick 7 // 17.7 WAR
2010 – Matt Lipka // Pick 35 // 0 WAR
2011 – Sean Gilmartin // Pick 28 // 1.3 WAR
2012 – Lucas Sims // Pick 21 // 0 WAR
2013 – Jason Hursh // Pick 31 // -0.2 WAR
2015 – Mike Soroka // Pick 28 // 5.5 WAR
2015 – Kolby Allard // Pick 14 // 0.6 WAR
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