Atlanta Braves positional previews vs NL East: Left Field
Life as a baseball follower at the present time feels quite bizarre; amid the global coronavirus pandemic that has halted spring training and the beginning of the season, Atlanta Braves fans are far from alone in having to exercise a great deal of patience.
However long it may be until that glorious Opening Day finally arrives, though, the heart of a baseball fan ultimately looks to what lies ahead, and there is still much for the Atlanta Braves to feel excited about.
The back-to-back National League East champions will once again be a force in whatever version of a 2020 season the future holds, though the competition expects to be fierce.
Tomahawk Take continues its preseason coverage of the NL East positional previews with a spot that can arguably be called a strength for most teams in the division: left field.
This group ranges from talented youngsters to strong veterans, and the pecking order could certainly be up for some debate, but here’s our best crack at it.
5. Miami Marlins
Yep – even the lowest rung on the ladder has to be feeling good about its left field situation entering the season.
The Miami Marlins – they of the next-to-lowest payroll in all of baseball – caught many off-guard with their shrewd 2-year, $17.5 million signing of Corey Dickerson. The left-handed hitting outfielder has put up some respectable numbers over the years with the Rockies, Rays, and Pirates (and briefly the Phillies).
While his performance won’t blow you away, there’s no denying that most teams in baseball would appreciate a bat like Dickerson’s on the roster.
Over the last three seasons, Corey Dickerson has hit for a 119 wRC+ and a .294 batting average.
He also cranked out 51 homers in two seasons with the Rays from 2016-2017, so while those numbers dipped with Pittsburgh (13 and 12 homers in ’18 and ’19 respectively), Dickerson still has a track record of being able to be a slightly above-average power hitter.
The Marlins will lose some of the benefit of the doubt in this ranking, however, when you consider that Dickerson put up his numbers last season while playing in only a part-time role (78 games). He’ll also turn age 31 in May, meaning some regression of his numbers is a reasonable expectation.
Having said that, Corey Dickerson is still a very solid option to slot into left field on an everyday basis down in Miami, while Harold Ramirez provides some decent depth behind him.
4. New York Mets
No team in the National League East deals with the unpredictability on a season-to-season basis more so than the New York Mets.
Entering 2020, the Mets find themselves in another peculiar situation, with outfielder Yoenis Cespedes trying to work his way back from a bizarre non-baseball injury that left him on the shelf for all of the 2019 season.
The 34-year old Cespedes has seen his share of disappointment during his time in New York, as he hasn’t played more than a hundred games in a season since 2016.
The Amazins have their share of options in the event that Cespedes can’t come back and take the left field job.
He’ll have to earn it in order to surpass the terrific production the Mets got last year from J.D. Davis.
Davis, who came to New York from Houston in a trade in January of 2019, put together a very impressive stat line in his first full major league season.
In 453 plate appearances, Davis slashed .307/.369/.527 with 22 home runs and a 136 wRC+.
It was that kind of production that made Mets fans long to forget about Cespedes.
However, it remains to be seen if Davis will be able to keep up that pace going forward, now that the major league book is out on him. Repeating his performance for a second full season won’t come easy.
Also, if Cespedes does show that he is healthy and ready soon enough – especially given a potential abbreviated 2020 season – he may demand enough attention to move Davis to a part-time role on a Mets club that is quickly filling out its lineup with young star power.
Be it J.D. Davis the whole way, the return of Yoenis Cespedes, or some combination of both, the Mets have a couple of high-upside options in the left field department, though it comes with high-bust potential as well.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
Sometimes, reputation wins out over uncertainties.
Andrew McCutchen played just 59 games in 2019, thanks to a torn ACL.
That same injury looked as though it would also delay Cutch’s return to the Phillies starting lineup in 2020, though now the veteran outfielder might get some help with the season’s postponement, perhaps providing him with enough time to be healthy enough to get the call on Opening Day (whenever that may be.)
However you look at it, though, there’s no disrespecting the production that McCutchen has brought to the table in his time as a major-leaguer.
That track record of success is what gives the Phillies the edge here over Miami and New York.
Even though his “peak” years have long passed, McCutchen has – like clockwork – routinely churned out 20+ homer seasons, a wRC+ of greater than 120, and a terrific approach at the plate (career walk rate of 12.2 BB/9).
He’s also renowned for his personality and leadership, intangibles that would definitely rub off on the team as a whole.
His skillset and consistency in performance are pretty clear indicators that he’s not about to experience some rapid drop-off in production, but rather he would continue to be an above-average bat even well into his mid-30 age seasons.
Having said that, it’s still fair to point out that McCutchen hasn’t had to deal with rebounding from a season-ending injury before (his career has always been one of remarkable health and durability), and the Phillies depth behind him is nothing special (some combination of Roman Quinn, Adam Haseley, or Jay Bruce would likely fill in if Cutch misses a significant portion again).
Those factors, along with the division-wide competition at left field being as thick as it is, is why Philadelphia finds itself third on this list.
2. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves upgraded their left field situation when they signed Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $18 million deal this past January, adding to their already-impressive lineup.
There’s a lot for the Atlanta Braves to like about Marcell Ozuna making a splash on a one-year deal.
First, he’s got a very positive track record as far as his health is concerned – he’s played in fewer than 148 games just once in the last four years – and he is still in the prime years of his career.
Furthermore, he’s basically a given to smash a mid-20s home run output, while also driving in quite a few runs hitting behind the likes of Ronald Acuna, Jr., Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman.
In their projections, ZiPS has Ozuna finishing out at just shy of 3.0 WAR, with near 30 homers and a wRC+ of 117.
The upside for Ozuna, though, seems to be even higher.
It seems as though everyone is waiting on the neon sleeve-wearing slugger to replicate his awesome 5.0 WAR, 143 wRC+ season that he had with Miami back in 2017, and a closer look at his numbers suggest maybe he’s not far from that point again.
According to baseballsavant, Ozuna is among baseball’s elite when it comes to exit velocity (93rd percentile) and hard-hit percentage (96th percentile).
That might not necessarily translate to an immediate inflation in Ozuna’s 2020 numbers, but it does suggest he was better – perhaps a lot better – than his .241 batting average indicated a season ago.
While there does stand to be some questions regarding Ozuna’s defense – which saw its share of blunders in St. Louis – the bat is a given to be powerful overall, and potentially among one of the better left field bats in all of baseball.
For insurance purposes, Adam Duvall, Nick Markakis, and Austin Riley are all possibilities on the table in the event Ozuna goes on the shelf for a while – all of which give the Atlanta Braves a strong option as a fill-in piece in left field, which is now a position of strength in Atlanta.
1. Washington Nationals
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Much to the surprise of no one…
While you could make an argument for some shuffling to take place in the 2-5 ranks, there is absolutely no doubt about this fact: all the left fielders in the National League East are chasing down Washington’s Juan Soto…and it’s not remotely close.
Soto, the 21-year old superstar in the making, put up an other-worldly .949 OPS and 142 wRC+ in his championship-winning 2019 season.
Those totals came off the heels of Soto’s rookie campaign, which was equally as impressive, as he totaled 3.7 WAR in just about two-thirds of a season.
The real question now for Juan Soto becomes, “Just how great can this kid be?”
ZiPS’ answer to that question in their projection is “NL MVP-level”…to the tune of a near 6-win season, and an OPS that might teeter into the 1.000-range.
Sure, there’s always the possibility that pitchers across the league will change the book on how to face the young Washington star, and that his numbers might take a momentary dip before he counter-adjusts.
But over 8 WAR in two years, combined with a World Series championship under his belt, all before his age-21 season?
Soto exudes confidence, and for good reason: he’s one of the elite outfielders in baseball right now, period.
Next. Riley must start at 3B. dark
And certainly the best left fielder the National League East has to offer.