Atlanta Braves: extra running might be in store, but should that happen?

Observations from the Fast Lane

At a 67% success rate, Swanson may need to pick his spots a little better, but recall that he was often hitting out of the #8 hole in the lineup, and his steal attempts really should not happen with 2 outs and the pitcher at bat.

Even with less than 2 outs, he normally ought to see if there’s a sacrifice possibility that could allow the pitcher to make a productive out.

That said, we’ll have to see if he’s still hitting 8th this season.  A move to the 6- or 7-hole might change things up quite a bit for him, and at that position in the lineup, things would be different.

The Arms of Protection

Fangraphs data shows that the Braves have another barrier to getting their running game going:  the NL East’s defenses.

Stopping runners, of course, involves something of a partnership between battery-mates, but the teams Atlanta plays the most did have some stoppers in 2019.

MLB-wide, catchers caught 27.1% of all runners attempting to steal.  The NL East had some better numbers in places:

• Philly:  43.1% – best in baseball… and thus only 66 steals against them.
• Miami:  29.6%
• Nationals:  21.8%
• Mets… 13.7%  – Okay, run at will on these guys:  Ramos and Nido were the worst in baseball.

For the record, Braves’ catchers were at a paltry 20.8% kills against stealers… that will likely improve this season by swapping in Travis d’Arnaud.

Beyond that, the rest of the Atlanta lineup – in whatever final form that is – should be capable of providing enough RBI production that the Braves should at least think twice about waving that green flag too often.

So… is there a running game to be had here?  On paper it seems like a great idea.  In practice… that’s hard to gauge, but if 50 is Acuna’s goal, he should probably choose his spots with care… and load up against the Mets.