Atlanta Braves: Bryse Wilson seeks to solidify a spot in 2020
Bryse Wilson had a forgettable 2019 stint in The Show with the Atlanta Braves, but the upside is there for the young right-hander to have a season in which he seeks to insert himself as a regular in the starting rotation.
It’s easy to forget that Wilson is just 22 years old, and that a short time ago he was considered by some to be a top-five prospect for the Atlanta Braves.
True, seven underwhelming major-league outings last year may have contributed to some prospect fatigue regarding Wilson.
Now, though, entering the 2020 season, the linebacker-built Durham, NC product sets out to recapture the success that followed him through his early minor league years.
How did we get here?
Bryse Wilson was a fourth-round draft pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, and it didn’t take long for the South’s native son to make an impression by earning a spot in the South Atlantic League’s All-Star Game in 2017.
He was terrific with the Rome Braves that year, as he sported a 2.50 ERA over 26 games started and quickly rose up the prospect rankings.
2018 saw more success for Wilson, as he was promoted to Mississippi just a month into the season.
It was here that Wilson really began to carve out his reputation as a pitcher. Per Fangraphs, his eye-popping strikeout numbers exploded to greater than 10 K/9 – and even surpassed 11 K/9 once he saw his first action in AAA-Gwinnett.
The bat-missing flamethrower had Braves fans salivating upon entering the 2019 season; it was thought Wilson might’ve very well been the next “big thing” for an organization that had begun to see handfuls of prospects graduate to the majors and see immediate success.
Context necessary for 2019
Last season’s major-league numbers for Bryse Wilson – at face value – leave something to be desired.
- 20 IP
- 4 GS
- 7.20 ERA
- 4.5 BB/9
- -0.2 fWAR
However, it’s important to look deeper into those numbers.
All his prior success in mind, it’s fair to say that Bryse Wilson was given a bad break to begin the 2019 season.
He found himself thrust into the starting rotation – probably before he was quite ready – in the opening series thanks to injuries within the pitching staff.
He struggled mightily versus Philadelphia that day, and didn’t get another real crack as a starter in the big leagues until late June, where he saw one good start sprinkled in between two bad ones.
Positive trends
We’ve addressed the negatives – but what positives do we have to take away from Wilson’s 2019?
For starters, Wilson saw his walk rate diminish significantly in his 21 starts at Triple-A Gwinnett.
From 2016-2018, the right-hander had an average BB/9 of 2.44. In 2019’s time with the Stripers, Wilson trimmed that number to 1.93 BB/9 – or half a walk less per nine innings.
Also, according to Rotowire, Wilson’s average fastball velocity of 94.7 MPH ranks in the 85th percentile among all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons.
The .342 BABIP against him also would definitely indicate that Wilson suffered from some poor pitcher’s luck in ’19, and that could very well swing in the other direction in the future.
He’s still that power pitcher with high-strikeout capability that he was when he was praised by manager Brian Snitker after his Major League debut in 2018:
“That’s his makeup,” manager Brian Snitker said. “He’s an aggressive kid that’s going to be on the attack.”
It’s a crowded place
The greatest obstacle for Bryse Wilson for the impending 2020 season might have nothing to do with his own performance, but everything to do with who he’ll be measured against.
As it stands now entering Spring Training, the first four spots of the Atlanta Braves rotation appear to be solidified: Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Max Fried, and Cole Hamels… or perhaps there’s now an opening here?
It’s what happens for that fifth starter’s role that will certainly be a subject of intrigue over the next several weeks.
Wilson is far from alone in his quest to take a stronghold of that spot.
One could argue that up to four others – fellow young right-handers Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint, lefty starter-turned-reliever (turned-back-to-starter?) Sean Newcomb, and the ageless wonder Felix Hernandez – will all be vying for that final rotation opening.
One could argue that even if Wilson does impress in the spring, he might still come up short of a major-league roster spot, through no real fault of his own.
But, as always, it’s a long, long season – especially for starting pitchers.
Reasonable thought would suggest Wilson will still get several opportunities to make a name for himself in Atlanta this year, even if the bulk of his work is spent fine-tuning things in Gwinnett.
What to expect from Bryse Wilson in 2020
My prediction for Bryse Wilson in 2020? It’s a really tough call how much of a chance he’ll get, given the crowded Braves rotation, but I’ll say thanks to your usual injuries and attrition, Wilson will earn 10 starts with the big club this season, and he’ll put up an ERA just north of 4.00.
His strikeout rate will excite Atlanta fans when it trends back up over 9 K/9, while maintaining his walk rate at a workable 2.50 BB/9.
Next. Never tell me the odds. dark
Not necessarily electrifying numbers, but it’ll be a season of growing and taking steps in the right direction for Bryse Wilson in 2020.