Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna deal could be best Winter signing

Timeline of Events

We’ll start with an MLB.com story… (emphasis added)…

"AUGUST 4, 2018: “Ozuna said that he has been dealing with tendinitis and inflammation in his right shoulder since last season, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged that the team was aware of some limitations when it traded for Ozuna in December. Ozuna receives treatment on his shoulder daily, and he has tried to be intentional in picking spots to throw with maximum effort. He said he’ll huddle with the club’s athletic training staff to construct an offseason program that can help him regain strength. The Cardinals have not discussed the possibility of surgery.”"

Well… despite the desire to avoid the knife… the knife found him after the 2018 season.

"OCTOBER 30, 2018: “Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna underwent what is being described as a clean-up procedure on Tuesday in an attempt to eliminate the persistent tendinitis and inflammation in his right shoulder.”"

So Ozuna was ready to rock in 2019, right?  Well… not really.

"APRIL 9, 2019: “Citing his arm strength as at “55 percent,” Ozuna described in detail on Tuesday the work he continues to do to regain strength following offseason surgery on his right shoulder. That includes therapy, pregame exercises and daily work with coach Willie McGee, who is helping Ozuna correct his throwing mechanics.” “It’s because I had surgery to clean up the arm, [which], for a long time, didn’t move,” he said. “I feel like I’m getting stronger. I think it’s going to be good. I have confidence that my arm is going to get back to where it was before.”"

Not Just a Throwing Thing

Most of the concerns noted above had to do with Ozuna’s defense – particularly his throwing – but there’s reasons to believe that the bum wing was also adversely impacting his hitting.

From that .312 average in 2017, Ozuna dropped back to .280 the next season and then .243 more recently. But that doesn’t tell the whole story either.

While he was still hitting the ball hard, it’s the how he was hitting it that mattered more. A look at his hitting spray charts is enlightening, and fangraphs helps us out here.

Check the trends noted:

• 2017:
  • A cluster of homers at straightaway LF, but well over half were hit between the LF power alley and the RF corner.
  • Line drives appear evenly distributed around field.
  • Grounders are spread fairly uniformly around the infield to the traditional 2nd base position.
• 2018:
  • Most homers are landing from LF corner to a point just left of CF.
  • Liners are more concentrated to left side, though still with a number hit right at the RFer.
  • Grounders are strongly on the left side of the infield.
  • Curiously, a ton of fly balls seem to have been hit as dying quails to the Right-center and right field region.
• 2019:
  • A large cluster of homers congregated between straightaway left field and the LF foul pole with a few scattered elsewhere.
  • Line drives also strongly to the left side.
  • Nearly all grounders hit between 2nd and 3rd bases.

In short, these charts bear out exactly what was reported:  that Ozuna played with a weakened right shoulder.

He could not drive through the ball with his back arm, causing balls not to carry when he did make opposite field hits, and most everything else hit to the ‘pull side’ was being pulled sharply.