What could the Atlanta Braves outfield look like in 2020?
Changes are a’coming for the Atlanta Braves… but how much of that change will impact the outfield?
The Atlanta Braves outfield depth did a lot for the club in 2019. It kept the team afloat through the summer months, and then, that outfield depth delivered in a big way in the postseason, as Adam Duvall got two huge hits to help secure the team’s two postseason victories.
What if it stays the same? Can the same cast of characters produce similar results?
There’s just one big, gaping question that’s looming over the Atlanta Braves offseason- do we resign Josh Donaldson, or do we go get Mike Moustakas? (I’m not even including Anthony Rendon because it just isn’t happening.)
The reason why that is so important to the outfield is because Austin Riley would be the team’s third baseman should we not sign a free agent. If we did sign a third baseman and you’d presume that if Riley can consistently hit at the big league level, he’d serve as a platoon in the outfield, and maybe even a full-timer with all of that 30-plus home run potential.
Then there’s the question, if it is Riley at third, then who’s in the outfield? Recent rumors have included Marcell Ozuna, and names like Nicholas Castellanos have been floated about too.
The Atlanta Braves have Ronald Acuna Jr., Nick Markakis, Adam Duvall and Ender Inciarte under team control. That’s not counting Charlie Culberson, who can play the outfield, as well as Rafael Ortega, who was promoted late last season and was included on the postseason roster.
So with all that depth, do we even need to go out and get someone else? There’s a lot to consider, and that’s for sure.
What do the incumbents bring to the table? Of them, who could have the biggest impact? Who else could be added to the picture? Who could spend time in the minors? Who’s a lock to be on the roster?
Let’s answer some questions.
Where do the pieces fit?
We all know about Ronald Acuna Jr. The near 40-40 season, fifth place in the MVP voting and the fact that he looks like he’s poised to be a superstar for the next 10 years. He’s a starter, likely a perennial all-star, and health included, we won’t need to worry about his outfield spot for years to come.
Now comes the rest. While it’s a deep unit, outside of the possibility of Austin Riley and another resurgence, it doesn’t necessarily scream upside. However, it does provide a variety of skill sets, but you can’t necessarily count on knowing what each player will provide.
The unknowns- Inciarte and Riley
Fans know what they want to see from both Ender Inciarte and Austin Riley, but can we accurately predict what production will come from either?
We saw what Austin Riley was capable of last season when he exploded onto the scene, but then we saw the flip side of that, when he struggled and wasn’t included on the postseason roster.
As for Ender, the All-Star and gold glove outfielder has been hobbled by a lack of offensive production and injuries – especially in 2019, where he appeared in just 65 games due to hamstring and back injuries.
Supposing that we keep both Inciarte and Riley, what could we reasonably expect from them?
Ender’s peak was a 201 hit 2016 season that saw him hit .304. That batting average was in line with his production from 2014-2016 in Arizona. In 2017, his production was similar, but he had 43 less hits. It’s reasonable that he could bounce back to something between his 2016 and 2017 production.
Let’s say a .280 batting average with 9-11 home runs and 50-60 RBI to go with 25 steals. I think you’ve got to put memories of 2019 behind you, and give him a second chance.
As for Riley, it was a total case of feast or famine. Austin Riley is never going to hit .300 in the major leagues, I can say that with much certainty, but the idea of him hitting .260-.270 with 30 plus homers is a real thing. As a ‘mostly starter’ in the outfield when he’s hitting well, Riley should produce, provided he’s much better with swings and misses.
Let’s say Austin could provide Atlanta with a .250 batting average with 30 home runs and 80 RBI through 130 games. Most fans would be overjoyed with that.
What you see is what you get
Nick Markakis is an aging player now, as much as I hate to admit it. He’s going to be solid, he’s going to hit for .300 with ample rest, and what a weapon he could be off the bench.
That’s not what Nick Markakis wants to hear, but it seems like that could be his role. A professional hitter, he could share time with Adam Duvall, giving Duvall starts against lefties and providing a great menu for match-ups for manager Brian Snitker.
Duvall, as we saw, can be clutch. Two huge hits in the playoffs cannot be understated, and when Nick and Ender went down with injuries, Duvall was there, putting up a respectable line through 120 at-bats, hitting .267 with 10 home runs.
Those numbers are comparable with Adam Duvall the all-star, where he hit around .245 with 64 home runs and 202 RBI in 2016 and 2017.
The idea of an outfield/bench that can deploy players such as Acuna, Inciarte, Riley, Markakis and Duvall. That’s not even considering Charlie Culberson, who can play, too.
But what can the Atlanta Braves do to upgrade? What if Riley doesn’t end up in the outfield, and instead, plays third base?
External options are available
I’m not going to sit here and re-write the articles already written by my peers. Rumors have been flying about for the Atlanta Braves to re-sign Josh Donaldson to play third, or as a very nice consolation prize, Mike Moustakas. Marcell Ozuna has shown up in rumors over the past week.
There’s Nick Castellanos, and of course, the further out scenarios (or maybe not so far out) where we haul in Mookie Betts.
Free agent options
Josh Donaldson is going require three, maybe four years, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 75-100 million dollars.
For Moustakas, you might be looking at less money per season, but a slightly longer length in an ideal world. You’d probably be looking at the same for Ozuna, as well. Ozuna is just 29 years old, compared to Donaldson’s 33.
So you can bet that Ozuna would be looking for a minimum of three years, but likely, 4-5 years or more.
Castellanos is kind of like Moustakas, in terms that’s he’s viewed maybe as some as the ‘B option’ to Ozuna as many Atlanta Braves fans view Moose as the ‘B option’ to Donaldson.
But Castellanos has sat between .272 and .298 over the past three years with 25 home run power and good production in the area of 80-90 RBI… if you can tolerate his defense.
Any of these would be great options in my opinion. It’s all a matter of commitment.
Let’s talk trades
Let’s assume that we are keeping Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Max Fried and that Sean Newcomb gets another shot in the rotation. That’s four starters- however we get the other one is up to you guys.
That leaves Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, Tucker Davidson, Touki Toussaint, Patrick Weigel, Huascar Ynoa and Kyle Muller as pitchers that can step up, or can serve as trade capital. That’s a lot of trade chips. It would appear, that at least the short term plans for these arms aren’t the bullpen.
Now, if you figure that hauling in a piece like Betts would require moving Cristian Pache or Drew Waters, and the Atlanta Braves absolutely have the capital to pull off a trade, and possibly even do it without blinking.
Next. The bullpen looks set... what about everything else?. dark
With the way this offseason has been going, we might get answers sooner than later. The Atlanta Braves front office has already pulled the trigger on upgrades, and maybe we’ll find out the state of the 2020 outfield in the coming weeks.