This isn’t just a pie-in-the-sky suggestion or other wishful thinking: the idea of locking up Ronald Acuna for the long term has suddenly become essential.
The Atlanta Braves are now being forced into a position that they were likely hoping they could avoid for at least another year. It’s about making a huge financial commitment to a player with less than 1 year of major league experience.
You could almost see this coming. First, it was about establishing thresholds and slots for players to fall into. That was the case with Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, and now Mike Trout as their teams have committed over $1.3 billion in salaries to these 4 players within just the past month.
(Ed. update – by new reports Thursday afternoon, we can now add Paul Goldschmidt to this list… and we’re now at roughly $1.5 billion for 5 players).
That’s more about the elite veterans, though. They are in a category of their own. What I’m thinking about today are the youngsters… the superstars who are coming up fast, but still don’t have a lot (or ‘any’ in some cases) of major league service time.
Not Just about the Extension
There’s a different reason that teams are scrambling to lock up their young, pre-arbitration superstars this week, and it’s a reason that the Braves absolutely have to be paying attention to as well.
First, let’s review what has just happened with extensions this off-season (most of them this week). You might be surprised at how many are included.
That said, we’ll start that list with one that was executed this time a year ago:
(Note: all contract incentive clauses are ignored; no trade clauses are included where known; sources are all over the place – mostly baseball-reference.com links)
SCOTT KINGERY – PHILLIES, 2018. POS: Util.
- Service time at time of extension: 0
- Player age then: nearly 24
- Number of years: 6
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: None*
- Terms:
- Salaries of $1, 1.5, 1.75, 4.25, 6.25, 8.25 millions
- *3 possible option years at $13/$14/$15 million; single $1m buyout
- All option years would be free agency years
- Total guarantee: $24 million
- Service time at time of extension: 3 years, 76 days
- Player age: 25 years, 10 mos.
- Number of years: 4
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: None*
- Terms:
- Begins in 2019
- $4.5, $8.5, $12.25, $15.5 millions through 2022
- Team option $16m, $4.25m buyout for 2023
- Guarantee: $45 million
LUIS SEVERINO – YANKEES, 2019. POS: S-RHP
- Service time at time of extension: nearly 3 years (2 yrs/170 days)
- Player age: 25 years, 1 mo.
- Number of years: 4
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: None*
- Terms:
- Begins in 2019
- $4.5, $10.5, $10.75, $11.5 millions through 2022
- Team option $15m, $2.75m buyout for 2023
- Guarantee: $40 million
MAX KEPLER – TWINS, 2019: POS: RF
- Service time at time of extension: 2 yrs/152 days
- Player age: 26 years, 1 mo.
- Number of years: 5
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: 2
- Terms:
- Begins in 2019
- $6, 6.25, 6.5, 6.75, 8.5 millions through 2023
- Team option $10m, $1m buyout for 2024
- Guarantee: $35 million
JORGE POLANCO – TWINS, 2019. POS: SS
- Service time at time of extension: 2 yrs/24 days
- Player age: 25 years, 9 mo.
- Number of years: 5
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: 1+*
- Terms:
- Begins in 2019
- $3.58, 3.58, 4.33, 5.5, 7.5 millions through 2023
- *Vesting option $10.5m, $1m buyout for 2024 (w/550 PA in 2023)
- Team option $12m, $750K buyout for 2025
- Guarantee: $25.75 million
AARON HICKS – YANKEES, 2019. POS: CF
(Note: Aaron Hicks of the Yankees also received a lucrative extension deal in February, but at the age of 29½, he is not in the same category as the rest of these. He is only named here to note the distinction)
BRANDON LOWE – RAYS, 2019. POS: 2B/LF
- Service time at time of extension: 58 days
- Player age: 24 years, 9 mos.
- Number of years: 6
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: None*
- Terms:
- Salaries of $1, 1.5, 2.5, 4.0, 5.25, 8.75 millions
- *3 possible option years at $10.5/$11.5 million; $1m buyout/$500K buyout
- All option years would be free agency years
- Total guarantee: $24 million (max $49m w/incentives)
- Service time at time of extension: 0
- Player age: 22 years, 3 mos.
- Number of years: 6
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: None*
- Terms:
- 6 yrs., $43million reported
- *Option years would be expected for this kind of deal
- All option years would be free agency years
- No details as yet. Deal is not official
- Service time at time of extension: 2 years, 70 days
- Player age: Nearly 25
- Number of years: 5
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: 2
- Terms:
- $10 million signing bonus, paid in 2019
- 2019 team-assigned salary remains
- $11m annually for the 2020-2022 seasons (the arbitration years)
- $28.5m annually for the 2023-24 seasons
- 10-team no-trade clause for these years
- Total guaranteed money: $100m
- Service time at time of extension: 2 years, 72 days
- Player age: 26 years, 3 mos.
- Number of years: 5
- Number of arbitration years bought out: 3 (all of them)
- Number of free agency years bought out: 1
- Terms:
- $50 million total value reported
- No option years
- Begins in 2019
BREAKING: #Rays sign Cy Young winner Blake Snell to 5-year, $50 million guaranteed contract. Starts this year, includes all of arbitration and first of his free-agent years.
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) March 21, 2019Okay, that’s the list… now let’s examine what’s going on here.
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 23: Andrew Benintendi #16 of the Boston Red Sox returns to the dugout during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game One of the 2018 World Series at Fenway Park on October 23, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) Others on the Horizon?
After Bregman extension, Benintendi says no such talks have happened with Red Sox. 'I would definitely listen' https://t.co/MmRNXN8eeJ
— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) March 21, 2019Out of the three players who seem to be in the contact extension window right now, the conditions appear to be most optimal for Eddie Rosario to sign long term with the #MNTwins. Both sides are interested. But they have to find middle ground. https://t.co/PGoUc9mCjY
— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) March 21, 2019Why is this suddenly a ‘thing’?
There’s multiple reasons, but one of them is ‘big’… but first, let me address this tweet:
List of players to get extensions before Jacob DeGrom
— Joey Cavallero (@joey_cavallero) March 21, 2019
Scott Kingery
Mike Trout
Blake Snell
Paul Goldschmidt
Eloy Jimenez
Alex Bregman
Brandon LoweMike Trout is an exception to every rule. Paul Goldschmidt is an exception to many rules, as is Nolan Arenado (who failed to make the list above, but still belongs on it).
Jacob DeGrom probably is an exception as well, but he’s also a 30½-year-old pitcher and he’s exactly the kind of player that teams are hesitant to lock up for the long term right now.
That’s especially true for the Mets, who have just barely put their experience with David Wright in the rear-view mirror… and he’s not even a pitcher.
Still: these players are some of the Elites… the veterans who have been there/done that, and continue to do so.
I’m not speaking of these players here. This is about the (relatively) inexperienced ones that teams normally wait on… because they can.
Aside from those exceptions, there is a common thread among the rest:
- Star players or budding stars or Topmost prospects
- Young
- Projectable (or actual) big talent
- Deals buying out all arbitration years and a bit beyond
- Deals buying out their ‘prime’ performance seasons
There’s the Point
There is momentum right now to shift the manner in which MLB players are paid. The logic is both predictable and undeniable: if teams are going to decline to pay players in their 32+ years for what they had done over the past ~5 seasons, then they need to be paid during those years of highest performance.
It is directly because of that sentiment – fueled by the (non-)activity of the past 2 off-seasons – that we can expect the current arbitration system as we know to either end or change dramatically in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
That agreement is currently scheduled to run through the 2021 season – 3 more years. It won’t age well.
LONDON, ENGLAND – JULY 13: A croupier works at a blackjack table at The Hippodrome Casino near Leicester Square on July 13, 2012 in London, England. The new casino has five floors and 90,000 square feet of slot machines, blackjack and roulette tables. (Photo by Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images) High-Stakes Poker
It is predictable that the players’ union doesn’t wish to wait that long before changes are made. They don’t want to see 3 more years of grumbling.
As we know, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are (as of this moment) still looking for work… the result of both this ‘age discrimination’ (if you will) and the Qualifying Offer label.
To make a large change will require a large ‘give back’ from the players’ side, but I get the impression that they might be willing… and that’s a game changer.
That’s largely speculation (though anecdotal radio chatter from many in the industry points in this direction) but it also makes logical business sense, too.
But don’t think that the front offices are doing these deals strictly out of the goodness of their hearts: no, they are projecting great things from these players of theirs and they are trying to save some money over the long term, while providing a sizeable guarantee to the players in the meantime.
Lesser players? It might not make that much of a difference whether they are locked up now, later, or… ever. The stars? Yes, it does matter.
If the players succeed in getting more money moved forward to earlier points in their careers… those numbers could look like bargains within the next few seasons. Hence the interest in front offices to lock up their stars now.
So what you’re seeing in the marketplace last month and this week is a coming together of opposing interests… guaranteed money received on one side with guaranteed future savings on the other.
LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 22: Chez Nihell (L) and Kent Kauppinen shake hands during the weigh-in ahead of the IBO World Super Middleweight Title fight between DeGale v Chris Eubank Jr. on the 23rd February at the Intercontinental Hotel on February 22, 2019 in London, England. (Photo by Jack Thomas/Getty Images) So why are many being accepted?
The other aspect is this: what response are we seeing from the players inking these deals? Sure, this is a season in which contract extensions often are offered and accepted, but not usually this many and not usually to these kinds of players.
I already noted the obvious reason: guaranteed money – more and sooner. But it’s a bit deeper than that.
Records are being set right and left this week:
- Bregman’s bonus (partly done as a luxury tax maneuvering technique)
- Jimenez’ deal for players with no experience (smashing Kingery’s record from 2018)
- Heck… nearly all of these represent some form of record… and that’s clearly part of the draw.
There seems to be a rush of activity to lock up these young stars…..Ah… while they are under the terms of the existing rules.
Each deal seems to be falling into roughly drawn lines about the value/worth of a player and the expectations of their future performance.
The purpose for this would be to establish a ‘ladder’ of terms to slot players into while also attempting to save these teams money by leveraging the arbitration system while it still exists in this form.
If it changes to reduce years of control… that means more free agency. If there are more arbitration years, that means higher wages. The star players would get even more money.
Giant Spreadsheets
More from Tomahawk Take
- Atlanta Braves: Best Option at Shortstop Now That Dansby Swanson is Gone
- Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos’ views on the offseason so far
- Braves News: Dansby goes to the Cubs, prospect rankings, more
- The Paradox of Dansby Swanson
- Report: Dansby Swanson to sign seven year deal with Chicago Cubs
To perhaps prove that, just note the kind of salaries commanded by the best players in recent final arbitration years: Josh Donaldson $20 million in 2018 with the Blue Jays, Arenado with $26 million with the Rockies (via agreement prior to the big extension) in 2019.
What if you gave each of these players another arbitration year? Or released each to free agency a year sooner?
These are prime examples, and yet not subject to small sample size complaints since arbitration figures are based on the comparable worth of all players.
If you examine the new extension deals offered, you can likewise use the prior precedents to figure out how a front office values one player vs. another.
As an aside, that also explains a lot on why Kimbrel, Keuchel, et al, have been waiting as long as possible… they know their own fair worth.
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 19: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves hits a two-run home run during the fourth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at SunTrust Park on September 19, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) Valuations
Writing in The Athletic this week (subscription required), Jonah Keri took on the thankless task of ranking the top 50 players (and more) by trade value. Here’s some that he came up with:
- 22. Eloy Jimenez
- 21. Freddie Freeman
- 15. Aaron Nola
- 13. Blake Snell
- 8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr./li>
- 7. Mookie Betts
- 4. Alex Bregman
- 2. Juan Soto
- 1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
Yeah, that price meter for Acuna is going up by the day… and that’s the real point for Braves fans.
So Back to the Braves
Ronald Acuna Jr. The gauntlet has been thrown down in front of the Atlanta front office by the rest of the league.
Alex Anthopoulos knows what’s going on in the marketplace… none of this is news to him or his immediate staff. These recent deals may or may not have sped up their own timetables, but the fact is this: Acuna’s not going to get any cheaper if they delay making an offer.
Now all of this is said under the expectation that Acuna Jr and his advisors would be open to the notion of a big-money contract extension package… and an ultimate agreement. You can’t simply impose a contract by fiat: there has to be agreement.
As Jake discussed On Wednesday, the sky could be the limit for Acuna, Jr. and even a Trout-esque deal could eventually be on the table from some team. The Braves don’t normally swim in those waters, but perhaps these aren’t normal times.
Part of the calculus here: the idea that sweeping changes might occur to the MLB CBA should actually scare both sides a little bit:
- The Management side for the cost containment reasons noted previously
- The Player side because of the potential for a work stoppage… when nobody gets paid.
This is why we are seeing these broad, big deals at this time. It’s also why the Braves need to do likewise if they have any desire/expectation of hanging onto Acuna for anything close to his age 30 season.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 25: Ozzie Albies #1 and Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves celebrate the 7-3 win over the New York Mets on September 25,2018 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) A Proposed Extension Deal
It’s going to be expensive, yes. The amount of years would likely have to be at least 8 (the 6 available control years plus 2 free agency years). But he’s a generational talent that needs to be held for as long as possible… and as cheaply as possible.
The yardsticks for measuring an Acuna extension are now in place… unbeknownst to himself, Jake was slightly early in his writing on the subject yesterday, but the extensions occurring between just then and now have provided a pecking order for us.
It is reasonable to believe that Acuna at least matches the Bregman deal in terms of Average Annual Value (AAV), which was…
- $20 million for him overall
- $14.3m AAV during the arbitration years (rolling the bonus into that section)
- $28.5m AAV for his bought-out free agency years.
That means something like this:
- Pre-arb years (starting now): $1 million, $4 million, $8 million with a $3 m signing bonus up front ($16 million total)
- Arbitration years: $14 million, $20 million, $26 million ($60m total)
- Free agency years: $30m, $30m ($64m counting the 1st buyout)
- Options: 2 of them at $32m, $32m. $4 million buyout on the 1st; $2m on the 2nd.
Summary:
- That’s a $140 million guarantee over 8 years
- Options take that to a maximum $204m over 10 years… through age 30.
- This is his year 21 season.
For comparison purposes, Mike Trout…
- Made $78+ million through his scheduled arbitration years (to age 26)
- Is slated to make nearly $223 million through his age 30 season
This proposal would give Acuna:
- $76.5m through his age 26 season
- $204.5m through his age 30 season
- (these numbers count 2018)
Your mileage may vary… but if the projection of Acuna is accurate, this slots him above Bregman and under Trout… hopefully in a manner that would give some cost surety to the Braves.
That’s also ignoring the intervening decade where costs will escalate further, but maybe that cuts the team a slight break here?
Now about Freeman… Goldschmidt’s deal might mean that Atlanta would need to offer him around $25 million annually to stick around… but that’s another story for another day.
BLAKE SNELL – RAYS, 2019. POS: S-LHP
ALEX BREGMAN – ASTROS, 2019. POS: SS/3B
ELOY JIMENEZ – WHITE SOX, 2019. POS: OF
This one might have gotten the ball rolling this off-season… and you might concur seeing the numbers on the next page.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 07: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 7, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) The Docket of Contracts
All of these deals have been exercised (or nearly so, by reports) this off-season.
AARON NOLA – PHILLIES, 2019. POS: S-RHP