After Mike Trout got his record-setting deal on Tuesday, many Atlanta Braves fans started speculating about a similar deal for their young stud.
It was reported on Tuesday that the Anaheim Angels and Mike Trout are nearing a 12-year, $426.5 million deal. And my first thought was, could the Atlanta Braves do this with Ronald Acuna someday?
Now let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. Acuna has had 433 at-bats at the Major League level, no one is comparing him to Mike Trout … yet.
But many in the national media do believe he is the next young superstar in our game.
And with the way things are in free agency right now, it appears to be more beneficial for teams to lock their young superstars up early before they hit free agency.
But let’s look at Mike Trout’s career real quick and see just what it took for him to earn such a large extension.
In 2011 he got a cup-of-coffee and really didn’t impress, hitting just .220 in 123 at-bats.
But in seven years since then he’s been to the All-Star game every time, won two AL MVP awards, and finished in the top four of the AL MVP voting in each of those seasons.
In five of the past seven seasons Trout has hit 30-plus home runs, hit over .300, and stolen 20-plus bases.
Those are obviously some incredible numbers and accolades, and I don’t think anyone is expecting Acuna to match them.
Trout is quite possibly the best player to ever play this game.
But I think Acuna could come get pretty close to matching some of the production Trout has enjoyed the past seven seasons.
Can Ronald Acuna Match Mike Trout?
Again, Acuna only has 433 Major League at-bats in his career, but I think a lot of people would not be surprised to see him put up similar numbers to Trout.
Most believe Acuna will hit 30-plus home runs a year pretty easily. He hit 26 in 2018 as a rookie, so that one is not hard to believe.
He also stole 16 bases last year, so it’s not hard to imagine him stealing 20 bases a year. But I don’t think we’ll see him reach 49 like Trout did in his rookie season.
The one area where I don’t think Acuna will matchup with Trout is in batting average.
Even though he did hit a solid .293 in his rookie year, most project him to be a .275 or .280 hitter.
And Acuna does have a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but Trout struggles with that as well and nobody seems to mind.
Trout struck out 139, 136, 184, 158, and 137 times during the 2012-2016 seasons.
The past two seasons he struck out just 90 and 124 times, but he also didn’t get over 500 at-bats in either of those seasons.
Last year Acuna struck out 123 times. But again, no one cares if you’re putting up those other numbers.
As far as the awards, that’s hard to predict for Acuna. I certainly think if he puts up the numbers everyone projects him to, he’ll be in the top five of the MVP discussion every year.
The problem for Acuan is that he has another annual MVP candidate on his team in Freddie Freeman that he’ll be fighting for votes.
Still, I think it’s very possible for Acuna to average 30-plus home runs, 20-plus stolen bases, and a .280 average over the next five-to-six years.
And if he does, the Atlanta Braves will have a big decision to make.
Will the Braves Make Acuna a Lifer?
Let’s say Ronald Acuna puts up the numbers we talked about. That’s doesn’t necessarily mean the Atlanta Braves would be willing to give him a Mike Trout-like contract.
I wouldn’t consider Anaheim a large-market team. One of the biggest knocks Trout has gotten since signing this deal is that is OK with hiding out in Anaheim and not getting the media attention.
But the Angels do spend like a big market team. They are annually near the top in terms of team payroll.
That has not been the case for the Atlanta Braves for quite some time. In fact, we’re in the middle of an offseason where the front office has taken a lot of criticism for not spending after we were told the payroll would increase.
Plus, you have to take into account how crippling a deal like that can be. You would think the Angels would know better since they are currently hamstrung by a terrible Albert Pujols contract.
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The only difference is, they are giving this deal to Trout at 27-years-old. You have to figure he’ll play at an MVP level for at least five more seasons.
And then he’ll probably have three seasons where he’ll be a good but not great player. After that you just hope he can be a major league average player.
Meanwhile, you can’t do much else because your payroll is stretched thin.
As much as it pains me, I don’t think the Atlanta Braves would ever give Acuna — or anyone — this kind of deal.
What is more likely is that the Atlanta Braves give Acuna a contract similar to the first one the Angels gave Trout, which was six years and $144.5 million.
Trout got that after his third season, and I think that’s when we really see this type of talk pick up for Acuna.
While it sounds great and I would love for Acuna to be a Brave for life, I don’t see him missing out on free agency. And I certainly don’t see the Atlanta Braves giving him a mega deal like Trout got from the Angels.