Analyzing the struggles for Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran

With one-third of the season complete, the Atlanta Braves have some interesting decisions that will arise. Of those decisions: Julio Teheran.

It’s no secret that Julio Teheran has not been the All-Star caliber pitcher that he once was for the Atlanta Braves. After his recent start in San Diego, Teheran landed on the disabled list with a right thumb contusion. This is only the second time in his career that Teheran has been on the DL. The first time was in August 2016 for a right lat strain.

I don’t think Teheran’s DL placement is a sign of being an injury prone pitcher, but rather a mosaic image of his struggles as of late.

Over his last 5 starts, Teheran has a 6.11 ERA and a 1.429 WHIP, with 15 walks and 14 strikeouts. He’s also allowing 25 hits,19 earned runs, and eight home runs.

The velocity dilemma.

Teheran’s decrease in velocity has been a known issue for a while now. A decrease in velocity can become problematic for a pitcher because modern-day hitters have become accustom to seeing fast pitches, and adjusting to slower pitches should become easier for hitters as time progresses.

Teheran’s average fastball this year is 89.48 mph while the league average is 92.93 mph. Some hitters might require just a few pitches to slow themselves down to wait back on lower velocity pitches, while other hitters may struggle more with adjusting to lower velocities.

Adjusting to slower pitches with more break can be tough for some hitters, but the decrease in velocity could, in theory, give hitters an advantage over time because it gives the hitter more time to recognize the pitch type, spin, and location.

However, a decrease in velocity often times translates to increase in the break of a pitch. The slower velocity will mean more time for hitters to adjust which can be problematic, but an increase in break backs up the issue of low velocity.

With the increase in velocity from pitchers around the league, it seems reasonable to think the Atlanta Braves will follow the high velocity evolution of baseball and acquire/utilize pitchers with high velocities.

More strikeouts and less walks is what Atlanta needs out of Teheran’s spot in the rotation, and his lack of decreased walks and increased strikeouts makes the idea of trading Teheran seem attractive.

The point I’m trying to make is that low velocities pitchers are most likely not going to make it for much longer in the major leagues, and one of those low velocity pitchers at the moment is Julio Teheran.

Teheran is struggling. So what’s wrong with Teheran, OTHER than his lack of velocity?

A Statcast look into Julio Teheran…

Teheran’s issues include: increased walks, decreased strikeouts, increased HR’s surrendered, and a lost lethality of his fastball coupled with a lack of curveball and change-up usage vs RHB with a lack of slider usage vs LHB.

Looking at his overall BB% (walk percentage), we can see significant changes. In 2015, his BB% was 8.7%, in 2016 it was 5.4%, in 2017 it was 8.9%, and now in 2018 it is 11.1%. The only time Teheran’s BB% was ever in double digits over 10% was in 2010 when he was in Double A, where his BB% was 10.5%.

From 2013 to 2016, Teheran had a K% over 20% every year. In 2013 it was 22.0%, in 2014 it was 21.0%, in 2015 it was 20.3%, and in 2016 it was 22.0%. However in 2017, Teheran’s K% dropped to 18.6%, and now in 2018, it is 18.9%. Teheran has been walking more batters and striking out less batters which is becoming a problem.

In both of Teheran’s All-Star years (2014 and 2016), he surrendered only 22 HR’s. Then in 2017, Teheran gave up 31 HR’s in 32 games and seems to be on the same path in 2018 having given up 14 HR’s through 13 games.

This increase in HR’s surrendered could be attributed to the league-wide increase in home runs, but Teheran has been leaving some of his pitches over the plate which hitters are smacking out of the park at high rates. If a pitcher makes a mistake, major league hitters will jump all over it, and maybe Teheran is making too many mistake pitches. Maybe Teheran makes more mistake pitches to RHB which is why he rarely uses his change-up or curveball vs RBH.

Every year since 2013, Teheran’s fastball has always had a K% over 20% and a BB% below 10%. In 2018, Teheran’s fastball has a 17.6 K% and a 15.2 BB%. His fastball has seen increases in wOBA, xwOBA, spin rate (good), BB% (bad), and Whiff% (good) while seeing a decrease in K%. In essence, this tells us that Teheran’s fastball has been losing its value and effectiveness despite an increase in spin rate and whiff rate.

Teheran’s pitch choices and results are quite interesting to analyze

He has used his curveball less and less over the years against RHB in succession with his changeup. The main combo that Teheran uses is a fastball/slider combo. The “fastball” includes your regular 4-seam fastball, and a sinker to boot. So, Teheran’s combo is a 4-seam fastball & sinker with a sharp slider.

Well, if you have paid attention to the movement Teheran has on his 4-seam fastball, you may have noticed that it moves like a 2-seam; it moves similar to the sinker in that it tails to the right, which means it tails in towards RBH’s and away from LHB’s. So batters know that there is a high chance they will either get a slider, or a fastball that tails to the RHB box.

The issue with this is that Teheran has presumably become predictable.

According to baseballsavant, Teheran has a 5 pitch combo: 4-seam fastball, sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball. I’ve mentioned the 4-seam fastball, sinker, and slider that Teheran likes to use, but what about his curveball and change-up?

Well, this is where some concerns arise. Teheran doesn’t like to use his change-up or curveball as much as I think he should. This discrepancy really started showing up in 2015 when looking at his statistics.

In 2015, Teheran threw a total of 3,261 pitches. 2,727 of the 3,261 pitches were of the 4-seam/sinker/slider variety which means Teheran threw a combined total of 534 curveball’s and change-up’s (253 curves, 281 changes).

What is interesting about this is that Teheran only threw 82 curves and 41 change ups to RBH while throwing 171 curves and 240 change ups to LHB in 2015.

The discrepancy shows itself even more in 2017 when Teheran threw 276 curves (36 to RBH, 240 to LHB) and 199 change ups (30 to RBH. 169 to LHB).

I think Teheran needs to improve his ability to throw curveballs and change-ups overall, and specifically to RHB. A good change-up to go with a sharp slider vs a RHB is essential for success as a right-handed pitcher in my opinion.

Now what’s up with Teheran’s slider?

To left-handed batters, Teheran has used his slider sparingly. In every year Teheran has pitched, he has thrown his slider more to RBH than to LHB.

In 2013, Teheran threw 594 sliders while throwing 413 to RBH and 181 to LHB. In 2015, 739 total sliders and only 198 to LHB.

Just as an example, I’m going to compare this lack of slider usage to Gerrit Cole. This is different from Cole in particular because Cole has typically averaged a 60-40 ratio of sliders thrown respectively to RHB and LHB throughout his career while Teheran is averaging what appears to be a 70-30 or 80-20 ratio of sliders to RHB and LHB respectively. 

According to baseballsavant, here are the percentages of times each pitch has been thrown throughout Teheran’s career: Four-seam (43.2%), sinker (26%), slider (18.7%), change-up (7.4%), curve (4.6%). His curveball and change-up account for only 12% of his pitches while his 4-seam, sinker, and slider account for 88% of his pitches.

Is Teheran just a road warrior?

Sure, Teheran can be classified as a road warrior, but the Braves need him to succeed at home in addition to his road success, which is something Teheran has done poorly for the Braves.

Foltynewicz and Newcomb have arguably surpassed Teheran in the rotation that he used to own. So who’s to say that other pitchers like Mike Soroka or Luiz Gohara won’t surpass Teheran in the near future?

In 17 games at SunTrust Park in 2017, Teheran had a 3-10 record with 5.86 ERA, 1.495 WHIP, 100 hits allowed and 63 earned runs surrendered. However, in 15 games away from Atlanta in 2017, Teheran had a 8-3 record with a 3.14 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 86 hits allowed and only 33 earned runs surrendered.

More of the same thing can be seen this year in 2018 as Teheran has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.424 WHIP at home while having a 3.79 ERA with a 1.132 WHIP away.

Another thing to consider is that right now is the prime of the first half of the 2018 baseball season; the 2018 season is in full swing!

Teheran has a history of performing poorly in the first half of the season, and turning it around in the second half. The issue is that Teheran is just not performing when the Braves need him to, which is cause for concern.

This is in fact his 27-year-old season…isn’t that when the “experts” say is an MLB player’s best season?

Teheran has taken strides in the wrong direction, and he is not performing like Atlanta needs him to which begs the question…