Atlanta Braves Hunter Renfroe rumor

There isn’t one but there should be. The Atlanta Braves are seeking outfield help and the Padres now seem willing to discuss Hunter Renfroe. What’s the holdup?

Yesterday’s hot rumor involved the Atlanta Braves and the Ray’s Corey Dickerson. That could still happen as the Rays try to sell something they’ll give away next week. In the interim, another potential Atlanta Braves target emerged this weekend as well; Hunter Renfroe.

The closest thing to the suggestion of a rumor from anyone is this tweet from Jon Morosi.

The Braves are looking for an outfielder; that’s it.  That said, it makes a lot of sense; more sense than acquiring Dickerson.

Reasons for Renfroe

(Scouting grades courtesy Fangraphs)

The Padres made Renfroe their first selection (13th overall) in the 2013 draft. He spent the next three years on everyone’s top 100 prospect list as shown on the Baseball-Reference site.

Baseball America

MLB (Jonathon Mayo)

Baseball Prospectus

Pre-2014

#80

N/R

N/R

Pre-2015

#73

#48

#50

Pre-2016

#86

#92

#90

Pre-2017

#44

#42

#92

Renfroe’s a solid hitter with a power bat carrying tool. Baseball America ($) called his raw power “double plus” but it turn into consistent game power until 2016 when his 30 homers led the PCL. He backed that power with a true hitter’s line of .333/.358/.633/.991, 131 wRC+ and a .382 wOBA.

After an eleven game cup of coffee in 2016, the 6’ 1”, 220lb native of Crystal Springs Mississippi opened the season playing right field in the Padres starting lineup.

Welcome to the bigs

Renfroe’s power appeared as expected – 26 homers, 25 doubles and a triple – but his overall hit tool did not.  He finished the first half with a .231/.2/.449 line, 93 wRC+ and a .311 wOBA.  After the All Star break he suffered a strained neck that cost him a 10-day DL stint. His struggles at the plate continued and on August 18, the Padres sent him to AAA to regroup. He returned a month later but continued to struggle.

At first glance his .275 BAbip makes it seem he hit in a lot of bad luck. Statcast data says that he actually hit in pretty good luck. Based on his exit velocity and launch angle Renfroe’s .231 BA exceeded his xBA by 11 points and his .321 wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by 20 points.

He was particularly bad against righties slashing just .202/.244/.393, with 66 wRC+, a .270 wOBA and a 33.5% K rate in 331 AB.  Conversely he killed LHP, posting a .316/.392/.684 line, 177 wRC+, .439 wOBA and 17.7% K rate in 114 AB.

Once again that doesn’t reflect his recent numbers in AA or AAA as these numbers courtesy Baseball Prospectus show.

His OBP would benefit from taking a walk now and then but he seems to be allergic to them. That’s expected in mostly power guys but Renfroe’s hit tool has been solid since 2015.

Renfroe’s defense is about league average in right but his strong arm made him amenable to the Padres for that job. In left field he should be as good or better than most.

The trade

At the end of 2014 when the Braves and Padres hooked up for all those moves, Renfroe was a highly rated player with a clear path to the Padre lineup. Now the Padres have a log jam in their outfield with Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Alex Dickerson, Matt Szczur, Jose Pirela vying for time with Renfroe.

That doesn’t mean they’ll give him away. In spit of his bad freshman year Renfroe and the right hand power bat are a sought after commodity.  Additionally, the Padres don’t have to trade him so it all comes down to how well the player fits your needs; present and future.

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The Padres need pitching and would certainly ask for an arm from our top 10 prospects – the ones we aren’t going to trade.  Renfroe’s tools and controllability make him are worth a top 20 prospect or a package of prospects that meet more than one need.

Based on some of the trades we’ve seen lately, predicting a price is foolhardy but perhaps Touki Toussaint and a low level prospect would be enough to make the deal. I’d consider Kyle Muller as well but anything higher would require a bigger return from the Friars.

That’s A Wrap

Renfroe is a better fit that Corey Dickerson because he’s a righty with lots of team control and minimal impact on team payroll.  It’s reasonable to assume someone called somebody about Renfroe, that’s simply due diligence.   The question then becomes, is Alex Anthopoulos ready to trade prospects for him or anyone else?

If you’re looking for omens, the fact that no rumors have made their way to the public might be something to hang your hat on. The Braves keep all of their transactions as quiet as possible until the deal is done. So no news of a discussion between AA and AJ Preller is good news.  Of course we’ve heard nothing about trading for Mike Trout either so there’s that.

AA clearly knows Renfroe up close and personal. He watched the Padres prospect take the field against the Dodgers fifteen times last season. Setting a price he’s willing to pay should be easy, convincing the Padres could be hard.

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An outfield of Renfroe, Ender Inciarte and Ronald Acuna sounds pretty good to me. Whether the Braves share that feeling and are willing to meet the Padres asking price – or even start a discussion – only time will tell.