Last night the Rays designated Corey Dickerson for assignment spurring immediate speculation that the Atlanta Braves were interested in adding him.
While not a perfect fit, Corey Dickerson would improve the lineup and the defense. As a result pundits jumped to the quite logical conclusion the Braves were his next home.
#Braves are trying to add an outfielder, source confirms, and could be a suitor for Corey Dickerson. He grew up in Mississippi, where the Braves are the most popular @MLB team. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) February 18, 2018
Looking more closely at the ripples caused by adding Dickerson, plans shouldn’t be made for his arrival at Champions Field just yet.
The case for Corey
The Rays release of Corey Dickerson seemed, at first glance, a really odd move. He’s never failed to slug over .400 and after becoming a full-time player in 2014, consistently produced over 100 wRC+ and wOBAs of .319 or more. In a full season’s play he’ll hit a couple dozen home runs, thirty or so doubles and steal a base or two now and then.
He hits for a higher average with men on base, hits pretty well in high leverage situations and Baseball Prospectus shows a .281 career Tav, about 20 points better than their .260. He’s been a 2+ fWAR player, close to a 3 bWAR player twice and last season Baseball Prospectus gave him a 3.9 WARP.
Defensively he suffered in Colorado but his UZR and FRAA improved dramatically once he got to Tampa. Among left fielders with 500 innings last season Dickerson ranked ninth in UZR (2.6), 21st in RZR (.866) and BP’s FRAA of 13.5 made Corey number one among left fielders with 400 PA
With two years of control remaining and a relatively friendly contract of $5.65M, the Rays would probably eat $1M in a trade just to get a player back. All things considered, Dickerson looks like a nice fit in Atlanta.
Why not?
As good as Dickerson can be, he’s lacked consistency at the plate. Aside from his transition year in Tampa, Dickerson’s second half numbers are always lower than his first half.
After moving to Tampa in 2016, the 28-year-old Mississippi native struggled early (.230/.283/.456, 94 wRC+, .309 wOBA) but came back to have a strong second half (.260/.302/.481, 108 wRC+, .329 wOBA.)
He picked up where he left off when the 2017 season starter posting a.312/.355/.548/.903 line with 139 wRC+ and a .376 wOBA, 17 home runs, 24 doubles and three triples through June. That performance earned him an his first All Star nod.
He looked like a different player in the second half and pinpointing what exactly happened isn’t easy. Usually injury and/or conditioning factors into something like that. Dickerson rarely injured and at 28 conditioning shouldn’t be a problem making his second half doldrums a mystery.
Corey’s L/R split it isn’t awful though he strikes out more often against LHP and slugs significantly less but continues to get on base. Those are things Kevin Seitzer might well be able to improve and in a perfect world the Braves might well have Corey moving to a hotel in Orlando today. However, it isn’t a perfect world and other factors blocking such a deal are well known to readers here; money and Nick Markakis.
Other roadblocks
Actually those two issues are intertwined. Markakis’ final contract year cost of $11M isn’t huge by today’s standards but it is large enough that the Braves would prefer not to have it on the bench.
His contract – at least in part – made moving him during this lukewarm hot stove season with a plethora of outfield options available proved impossible. A team with deeper pockets might make the move anyway but the Braves don’t have such pockets.
Estimates show the Atlanta Braves project an opening day payroll of $116.5M and word circulated a few weeks back that they were with $10m of the absolute limit. Dickerson’s arbitration deal isn’t guaranteed so he would cost the Braves his full $5.65M contract if he hits the open market.
The Rays would have to pay about $1M in severance anyway so a trade might entice them to eat that million leaving $4.6M bite out of the budget leaving. That little bite doesn’t allow much wiggle room in case of injury to a key piece as happened last year when Freddie Freeman went on the DL.
The 40-man roster sits at 39 today, but at some point Ronald Acuna need a slot making the roster effectively full. Players could be jettisoned of course, Rule 5 pick Anyelo Gomez might be sent back to the Yankees or one of the lottery picks picked up from the waiver wire could go. In any event, adding Dickerson isn’t a simple maneuver.
On another note
I expect the MLBPA to go crazy over this. A $6M contract is chicken feed in today’s game and a team shouldn’t go broke over a contract that size with a payroll under $100M. The contract also contains significant excess value based on Dickerson’s historical performance.
Designating a 28 year-old two fWAR player is a pure salary dump; nothing more, nothing less. This move doesn’t make the Rays better. In fact, it makes them worse.
Dickerson’s roster spot technically went to C.J. Cron and MLBTR makes the argument that’s a long-term improvement. However, the Rays depth chart shows Denard Span as their DH. Span is a 34 year-old outfielder on the downhill side of an okay career. He legs are getting worse and playing on turf will do them no good.
Dickerson hit 27 home runs last year and posted 2.6 fWAR; Cron may do that but he probably won’t. Span will not do that and make $11M next season. Regardless of their public position, the Ray’s DFA’d Dickerson instead of Span to save $10M. If Tony Clark isn’t raising all kinds of . . . complaining loud and long about a team getting competitive balance money, making a move like this, he should be DFA’d
That’s A Wrap
Back to the Braves side of this. Dickerson fills an immediate need at a reasonable price. Looking at the situation from the outside, he makes all kinds of sense.
". . . Dickerson could bump Markakis from a starting role. Not only is Dickerson likely the better of the pair, but he’s much younger (28 to 34) and comes with two years of control to Markakis’ one."
The Braves would prefer a right handed hitter with good splits and lots of control at a low price; I’d like to be 40 again. Corey fits the profile of the player we’ve discussed all winter; suddenly available just as spring training starts who fills a need and won’t cost a lot.
The Braves could definitely use the improvement he brings on both sides of the ball and perhaps Seitzer’s magic could solve his second half woes. I just don’t believe it will happen. Unless something out of the ordinary emerges, I expect Dickerson and the Orioles are united by this time next week.