Atlanta Braves power drain

Yesterday GM Alex Anthopoulos finally discussed the lack of power in the Atlanta Braves projected lineup for 2018. Now that it’s being openly discussed will he actually do anything about it?

The Atlanta Braves roster provided 165 home runs last season (13th in the NL, 28th in MLB). The 28 of that miniscule offering came from the bat of Freddie Freeman.

Former Braves Matt Adams, Brandon Phillips, and Matt Kemp  accounted for 49 homers while minor contributions from Adonis Garcia (5), Jace Peterson (2), Sean Rodriguez (2) and Jamie Garcia’s grand slam provided 10 more.  Danny Santana – back on a minor league  deal – added three. A little math so you don’t need break out your calculators; that’s a loss of 81 homers.

All homers aren’t created equal and homers don’t always equate to a lot of runs scored.  A lineup requires balance – power and on base – to be successful and the projected roster lacks pop.

The GM agrees

Alex Anthopoulos made it clear last weekend at Chopfest that he and his team recognize this as an issue.

"“We’ve talked about the loss of power and how to make up for it. . .I don’t have an answer today. Normally you’d say ‘Wow, it’s late January, how do you not have an answer?’ But there’s a lot of free agents still out there and there’s a lot of bodies.”"

Right now 120 free agents remain unsigned and that’s a lot by any standard. While agents like Brodie Van Wagenen come as close as they have to screaming collusion, that’s more a way to calm clients and incite fans that reality.  Players haven’t been signed for a multitude of reasons; collusion isn’t one of them.

I have no idea who or what make up “ a lot of bodies” so I can’t speak with certainty though I assume it means players available for trade. Just in case neither happens he set up fans for starting the season as is.

"“. . . We also have the potential for upside from the guys on the roster as well. So maybe that will balance out.”"

It appears that AA wants to do something but restrictions – self imposed and financial – might be in the way.

What’s stopping him

AA’s told us about his self-imposed restrictions a couple of times.

• He won’t trade prospects until he’s evaluated them himself
• He wants players who defend as well as hit
• He won’t acquire anyone that blocks Ronald Acuna.  Nothing and no one can block Acuna when he’s ready making this statement seem strange. The problem likely lies with Nick Markakis, his $11M salary, and AA’s reluctance to have that much money sitting on the bench.

The last item highlights his financial restrictions.

After dumping Matt Kemp’s future salary back on the Dodgers in exchange for current year expenditures, the Braves are at the edge of their available payroll. Roster Resource projects 2018 payroll at $116.6M give or take $100K.  That’s about $4M short of last’s year’s end of season number and about 13.5M short of the number most consider their upper limit.

Moving Markakis $11M would give him leeway to make an addition in the outfield but for now that hasn’t happened. It appears that means moving all of Kakes money, even if the return is an A ball player we’ve never heard of.

Those things led our fearless AJC beat writer to conclude, “ It remains a strong possibility the team adds help, more likely at third base than the outfield” while his MLB.Com counterpart Mark Bowman feels “This year seems to be a perfect opportunity to give Camargo a chance. . .”  Whatever you believe will happen, a beat writer somewhere agrees.

Free agent possibilities

Looking at a third baseman as the probable acquisition, the free agent field appears to be Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez. Nunez fails the defense test; he’s never been good enough at any position to hold the job as an every.day starter. Frazier wants a couple of years at $12M but that price could drop making him the kind of fall in your lap player AA is looking to land.

Frazier meets the Braves needs in other ways as well. He’s a right handed bat who consistently slugs over .400 and plays well above average defense per DRS and UZR, though FRAA isn’t as big a fan. There’s been discussion about the value of Frazier as an offensive player. I’ll try to clear that up though it’s possible I’ll muddy the waters even more.

If you’re an old-fashioned batting average guy, Frazier’s tour in the AL will make you cry. He played the majority of that time he played on an awful White Sox team that asked him to do things that did not play to his strengths. That didn’t help.

At the same time his wOBA’s been good to above average, he’s slugged over .400 in every professional season and hit 27 or more homers every season since 2014.

Until last season, production in high and medium leverage situations was at or above his career norms for a full season.  Baseball Prospectus’ Tav shows him consistently above the expected .260 mark.

I believe Frazier signs back in New York but a two-year deal at $10m a year would work for the Braves.

If a lot of bodies means trades, I’m not sure I agree. The idea would presumably be to bring someone affordable on with enough control to bridge to Austin Riley and good enough to stay aboard if Riley takes a step back. We’ve beat this to death here and there’s really nothing new but a few happenings that could produce someone are kicking around.

Heads up

The Padres wanted Bryan Mitchell. The Price was taking Chase Headley and his contract.  Headley earn $13M this year and a transfer bonus of $1M that.  The Yankees happily agreed to pay half of his transfer bonus ($500k) leaving the Padres on the hook for $13.5M

Atlanta Braves

Headley’s career resembles a yo-yo slowly losing momentum then with the flick of a wrist speeding up again. After a breakout year the Padres gave him a big contract. While Headley’s next year was good, it wasn’t close to his previous set of numbers.

By the time the next season came around they wished they had not been so generous. The Padres traded Headley to the Yankees and  Headley produced good defense and about a league average bat there but without much power.

Last season Headley’s bat seemed to wake up a bit – .273/..352/.406 – but he managed only 12 home runs. Since his 31 homer 2012 Headley’s home run out put has never exceeded 14.  Headley’s 2.5 fWAR and 1.8 bWar shows that Fangraphs values defense more than BBR. Baseball Prospectus came down in the middle with 2.3 BWARP. They also credited him with a .272 Tav.

Headley is probably available for the asking and the Padres might well take part of the money too. The reason to give him a shot is the hope that a walk year produces a bump in offense. It’s a hope I don’t share.

Cards Gyorko could go

Eric Hosmer has two, seven-year offers but wants eight. He (or his agent) are using the deal Mark Teixeira got with the Yankees as the comp. There are three things wrong with idea.

1. Hosmer is not Teixeira on either side of the ball
2. The Yankees hated the back-end of the deal
3. The teams involved aren’t the Yankees

Since Hosmer isn’t going to St. Louis,  the Mike Moustakas is the logical bat for the Cardinals to sign. I’ve thought so since the post season began and things are now pointing strongly that way. If he does sign in St Louis Jedd Gyorko could be available for a prospect and bullpen help.

Since moving to Missouri, Gyorko’s been a model of consistency. His last two years produced 2.3 and 2.5 fWAR respectively, 112 wRC+ both years and he’s become a 20+ homer bat. Both UZR and DRS see Gyorko as improving once he got steady play at third and FRAA mirrors that with slightly more enthusiasm.  There’s significant excess value in his contract at $9M this season, $13M next year and an option year at the same $13M.  If available he’s a perfect fit.

Eugenio the Red

Eugenio Suarez with the Reds is the other trade option worth a peek. Last season was a breakout year for Suarez. Far from having a sophomore slump his fWAR jumped from 1.7 to 4.1 and his wRC+ from 94 to 117 and it wasn’t sample size. he had 600+ PA both seasons.

He was a much better hitter for average and power at the Great American small park and had a 20 point reverse split – .255 vs .279.  His BA split flipped on the road where hit lefties at a .292 clip and RHP at a .233. His splits are really odd and easier to show that talk about, all data from Fangraphs.

UZR and DTS like his defense at third while FRAA isn’t a fan.

Suarez makes $3.975M this year with two arbitration years remaining so he’s easy to move and solid enough to keep depending on the situation

Why would the Reds trade him? Nick Senzel. Just a year and a half removed from college, the Reds 2016 number one pick progressed as expected. The Reds feel his college experience and the way he killed the minors last year mean he’s ready to move up.

That’s A Wrap

We know that the Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Nationals, Orioles,  Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees aren’t trading their third baseman.

The Marlins will trade Martin Prado but he’s very expensive and doesn’t fit AA’s needs. The Pirates would trade Harrison but the price would be high.

The Tigers like Nicholas Castellanos bat but can’t stand his third base defense. They moved him to the outfield and want to try him there before punting on their once highly valued prospect.

Gyorko is the best option if the Cardinals get Moose and decide to trade for say the bullpen help they desperately need.  I like Suarez as well but whether we could make a the Braves could live with is the question no one can answer.

Next: Freddie wants to stay. . .

I’m confident the Orioles would take Markakis and his salary if they didn’t have to give up anything valuable. That would open the door for an outfielder like Brett Phillips or Clint Frazier instead of trying to deal for a third baseman worthy of the time.

Anthopoulos’ words suggest he’s not confident anything can be done now. Neither am I.