If the Atlanta Braves are going to contend in 2018 they need an everyday left fielder. We’ve heard a lot of rumors and know who topped the fans list, but now he’s headed to Milwaukee.
Craig Edwards over at Fangraphs agrees that the Atlanta Braves should try to challenge this year. Earlier in the week I posted a proposal to acquire Danny Salazar, today Il suggest options for left field.
If you’re still in mourning over losing Yelich this may fill the void or at least give you somewhere to vent. On the upside we’ll retain out best prospects and the moves indicated enhance the lineup.
Who’s left for left?
In Abbot and Costello’s Who’s on First routine, Why played left field. In the case of the 2018 Braves creating a lineup that’s good enough to challenge is why they would make a trade.
The folks over at Talking Chop went in-depth on the Braves trading for Adam Duvall. Their discussion is full of lots of good information so I won’t send a lot of time on him, They conclude that Duvall is an average player for whom the Reds will require an above potential price and doesn’t do much for the lineup. I agree so Ill move on.
Only a few teams have outfielders worth considering and most of them wouldn’t trade them because they have postseason dreams. Oddly enough the team most likely to make a deal just traded for Yelich and signed Lorenzo Cain.
The Brewers started today with Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Brett Phillips and Ryan Braun then added Cain and Yelich As Alan said they now have a glut of outfielders and need a starting pitcher. They made an offer to Yu Darvish but I believe Cain’s signing Indicated that Darvish was going to turn them down. He’ll probably sign there tomorrow after that prediction.
It’s hard to put a number on the Brewers payroll, they’ve been as high as $104M, sits about $94.5M now and are committed to about $64M next season. Lynn fits into their budget, Arrieta’s a stretch unless the contract is back-loaded a bit but I suspect they’d like to stay under 110 to give them some wiggle room later.
With that prologue lets look at the Brewer options and a couple under the radar ideas.
The Brew-Crew
Two of their current options are nonstarters for a Braves team that values defense and doesn’t need to air condition Sun Trust Park. Domingo Santana is not a good defender whose defensive ineptitude eliminates him from our GM’s list before any discussion starts.
Keon Broxton has power but strikes out enough to air conditions Atlanta. He consistently posted K rates near 30% in the minors and his arrival in the majors did nothing to mitigate that. In 2016 he finished a 36.1% K rate accompanying it in a small sample size.
This season the Brewers gave him 143 games to see if consistent at bats would help. While Broxton hit 20 home runs he managed just 84 wRC+, a .308 wOBA and a beyond awful K rate of 37.8%. I’ll pass on him too. That leaves the player who fits best in a few ways; Brett Phillips
Brett Phillips
The Crew used Phillips in center field for want of a better option. I believe he belongs in a corner where he could well become a plus defender. Phillips started yesterday as the Brewers #7 prospect in BA’s latest list ; the departure of Brinson and Monte Harrison to Florida slid him up to #5 slot.
Phillips’ swing (gets) long . . .but he produces hard contact when he keeps it compact. . . still strikes out frequently, but he became more consistent at hitting mistakes. . . above-average speed. . .on the bases and in center. . . a cannon for an arm. . . unleashed a Statcast record 104 mph throw to the plate . . combination of power, speed and arm strength . . . a high-energy player with a desire to improve . . .
BA didn’t publish their scouting score, these are from Fangraphs.
| Hit | Game Power | Raw Power | Speed | Field | Throws | Future Value |
| 30 / 40 | 40 / 45 | 55 / 55 | 55 / 55 | 50 / 55 | 60 / 60 | 45 |
Phillips works hard at making his game better and can play all three outfield positions. All of those things fit the Braves needs and has just 53 days official major league service time so he has a max amount of team control.
This years Hardball Times Player Profile (purchased through the site) likes Phillips.
"Athletic, LHH CF re-discovered hit tool . . . Short, compact explosive swing . . . Showed aptitude to hit to opposite field. Big power, mainly pull-side and to the gaps. Swing trajectory conducive to Big HR numbers. Fast runner, not a big SB guy. Plus range and exceptional arm."
The Crew certainly needs a starting pitcher and would ask for Julio Teheran and I would trade him for the right package. The Brewers system is pretty strong even after the Yelich trade and has a couple of players I’d like to add.
The trade
The Braves trade Julio Teheran. Kade Scivicque and Mauricio Cabrera to Milwaukee for Bret Phillips and Keston Hiura and another lower level prospect.
Keston Hiura Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 45 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55 (pipeline)
Hiura can hit. I know because he’s never failed to hit at any level. When I say hit, I mean crush. Baseball America’s draft report ($) spoke highly of Hiura.
". . . Offensively, Hiura has few peers in college. . .one of Team USA’s top hitters (in 2016). . . ranked among national leaders in batting, walks, on-base and slugging percentage through early May (2016). . .Scouts who like him grade him as a plus hitter with plus power. . .others see him above-average (55) . . .rather than a true plus (60)."
Elbow surgery meant he didn’t play after signing so his pro career began in 2017. He DH’d for 72 rookie league games to start the year and slashed .435/.500/.839/1.339 with four homers, five triples, three doubles, 13 strikeouts and six walks in 187 PA.
He moved to up to A ball in July and batted .333/.374/.476/.850 with 11 doubles, two triples, 24 strikeouts and seven walks in 105 PA. His Hardball Times Profile (purchased through the site) described Hiura like this.
"Hard-hitting, contact oriented RHH 2B with spectacular hit tool . . .one of top hit tools in game. . . produces loud, hard contact. Uses all fields. Power in frame and swing trajectory. . . ."
The Crew see him as a 2B or left fielder but his bat will earn him a spot on most teams.
Yankee Doodle Dandy
Lost in the Yelich noise is the fact that the Yankees have excess outfielders too. Their starting outfield includes Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks leaving Brett Gardner to DH and Clint Frazier and the albatross their owner told Cashman to acquire; Jacoby Ellsbury looking for work. I’ll pass on Ellsbury thanks..
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The Pinstripes and were rumored to be discussing Frazier after the Stanton Trade. The Yankees an outfield prospect in their system as good as Frazier – maybe better – in Estevan Florial making Frazier more expendable than some might think.
They also have Billy McKinney who lost some steam after the trade and looks like a young Nick Markakis; that’s not a bad thing. Those things Frazier expendable.
A Loganville Georgia native, Frazier fits the profile of the type of left fielder the Braves need. He’s fast with a strong arm, a quick bat that generates crushing power, solid on base skills and reasonable K rates for a power bat.
The trade would obviously require the Braves to include Julio Teheran. Teheran’s contract and control make him more valuable than last year’s numbers show and the Braves would want more than Frazier. After that it becomes a balancing act.
The trade
The Braves send Teheran and a warm body to the Yankees for Frazier, RHP Dillon Tate and RHP Juan De Paula.
The Yankees picked up Tate in the Carlos Beltran deal and used him from the pen the remainder of the year. In 2017 Tate regained a rotation spot in A+ ball pitching to a 2.31 ERA in 58 1/3 innings over nine starts. That earned him a bump to AA where he made four more starts at a 3.24 ERA in 25 innings.
In 2016 his stuff seemed to evaporate but this season it was back. Various scouting pieces suggest Tate pitched a lot better than his numbers show. Keith Law summed him up like this after the 2017 season.
"While his pure stuff is back — and good — Tate is now back to where he was out of the draft: an athletic pitcher with arm strength who needs to improve his command and who doesn’t miss enough bats . . . The slider is more average now . . . hitters see it pretty early . . . his fastball has great life but hitters . . . put it in play, albeit not very hard . . . starter potential, even good starter potential, but there . . . specific facets to his game . . .have to improve . . ."
Long legs and heat
De Paula Signed as a 16-year-old from with the Mariners in 2014. The Dominican right did well in his first DSL season posting a 2.32 ERA, 0.991 WHIP and 68Ks in 62 IP. He continued to strike hitters out in 2017 and increased his K rate to 11.6/9 with velocity to the low 90s. De Paula gained strength and his fastball gained velocity touching 95 towards the end of the 2016 season.
His motion is all arms legs and billfold; when tires its hard to hold all those moving parts together particularly as he’s still growing and gaining strength. Despite those issues he retains good control and actually has a complete game under his belt – okay is was the DSL but still, that’s an oddity these days.
Quinn Berry scouted De Paula at the beginning of last season. He rated his pitches (current value / future value) like this:
Fastball 50/65 – Curve 35/45 – Slider 45/60 – Change 45/55
Berry’s scouting report is positive with reservations.
"De Paula is an incredibly mature pitcher . . .understands how to pitch . . .stuff does not yet match his brains. . .pounds the zone, frequently starting hitters with a fastball on the corner, then delivers an off-speed pitch to get the hitter off balance, before finishing with a fastball or . . .slider . . . knowing how to pitch and owning a mid-90s heater should be enough for the righty to survive the minors. . . (but) it seems to limit how much the 19-year-old can improve, since he is already maximizing his current arsenal."
I’m not sure I agree with that last bit. Learning how to pitch usually comes later and is harder to teach than controlling a fastball that’s growing in power. I like him as a mid rotation starter or a later inning reliever/closer if the third pitch doesn’t become a thing.
Under the radar
Other players who fit that no one mentions because they aren’t sexy are the Padres Jose Pirela and the Tigers Mikie Mahtook.
Pirela Is a late-blooming (28 years old) outfielder who made his debut with the Yankees but did not impress. Last year with the Padres he seemed to figure it out batting .288/.347/.490/.837 in 344 PA over 83 games.
He showed nice power cracking 10 homers, five triples and 25 doubles and finished with a .355 wOBA and 122 wRC+. His minor league numbers look solid and seem to project that last year wasn’t a fluke.
Like Pirela, Mahtook is a 28-year old RHH outfielder. He began his career with the Rays but after a promising start in limited play, had a bad sophomore campaign in 2016 found himself in Detroit.
This season his bat seemed to return as he posted a .276/.330/.457./787 line including 12 homers, six triples and 15 doubles in 379 PA. That translated to a .335 wOBA and 107 wRC+, numbers that looked like his rookie campaign in Tampa.
Both players would bring better defense and at least three years of control at a very low AAV and the cost in prospects for either wouldn’t harm to the farm system
That’s a Wrap
Phillips would be a nice piece and looks the kind of guy to come to the park early and work every day to improve his play. Teheran is an overpay for him so I’d want at least another good player simply because they need pitching and are in a buying mode.
Hiura’s bat will move him up the system quickly and good bats are always a solid investment. I looked at the Brewers pitchers and Corbin Burnes would work I opted for Hiura because we have pitchers like Burnes in the system but no hitters like Hiura.
Frazier for Teheran makes sense if we can get a couple more good pieces in return. I think the Yankees would deal from depth because they have it and would get three years of Teheran.
This trade is predicated on adding Salazar or someone else first or at least having it agreed. We would still need innings from a veteran and Jason Vargas would fit nicely. His numbers last year were almost identical to Julio’s and he’d be an inexpensive sign.
The last piece to discuss in third base. If work allows and nothing intervenes I’ll have that tomorrow.