Atlanta Braves need changes to contend in 2018

Can the Atlanta Braves be serious contenders in the NL East rather than just spoilers in 2018. The roster and rotation are young so any challenge would require additions. Is the newly minted front office ready to do that?

Alex Anthopoulos is correctly hesitant to make any moves that would deplete the  minor league system before he personally gauges the prospects potential. Meanwhile Atlanta Braves fans are being tested more than most – okay maybe not as much as the Pirates but more than the rest – this offseason.  Heck Alan even asked – almost begged for AA to make us contenders this year.

I’ve said for a while that three players in key spots makes us a serious threat in the NL East.  Now Craig Edwards over at Fangraphs agrees with  and echoes what I’ve said – with one minor exception but I’ll take that as an over looked detail on his part.

"There’s a pretty good argument,. . .(the Braves) should consider accelerating their timeline . . .  with the right moves . . . Atlanta could assemble a winning team (this year) . . .the Braves’ depth chart reveals three clear positional holes: one in left field . . . one in right field . . .(and) one at third base.”"

Edwards believes our rotation can do it because he thinks Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir will both pitch.  I don’t trust Kazmir at all and McCarthy might or might not stay healthy; I believe we need a starter.  Our needs still number three because I count right field as the future home of Ronald Acuna  – by June. That aside his thoughts are worth discussing.

More from Braves News

• Atlanta Braves 2012 Prospect Review: Joey Terdoslavich
• Braves News: Braves sign Fuentes, Andruw’s HOF candidacy, more
• The Weakest Braves Homers Since 2015
• Atlanta Braves Sign Joshua Fuentes to Minor League Deal
• Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves

Trades rather than free agency are the way for the Braves to change their roster this year. That could change if:

1. An inexpensive free agent falls to them as we near spring training or
2. They agree a back loaded contract that shifts payroll to 2019-2020-2021 when there’s little real money committed.

We’ve kicked around the usual suspects, but there are very good players available we’ve ignored while dreaming on star names. Here are some ideas to fill existing needs without stripping the farm system.  Covering all three needs in one post would make it long so I’ll break it into three separate pieces starting now with the rotation.

Adding a starter

The Atlanta Braves trade RHP Arodys Vizcaino, LHP Sam Freeman and RHP Jose Ramirez (or a lesser similar prospect) for Danny Salazar.

The Cleveland Indians have a couple needs but lack of payroll space limits their options.  The first is an outfield full of left handed bats with no right handed options; sorry can’t help now, maybe later.

The second is the hole in their bullpen as a result of the departure of Boone Logan, Joe Smith and Bryan Shaw. The Tribe’s window is closing quickly and they need a strong bullpen to make that happen.

I think they’d take the deal, based on the relievers Buster Olney tweeted they’re considering.

While not a marquee name, Salazar brings experience and a K rate above 25% to a rotation in need of both. His debut came in 2013 ended with 11.25 K/9 with only 2.6 BB/9.

In 2014 he made 20 starts and while his K/9 slipped to 9.82, he continued to be stingy about issuing walks.

His numbers for the last three years show that when he pitches he’s capable of being a top of the rotation arm.

DRA= Deserved Run Average  PWARP = Pitcher WAR

bWAR courtesy Baseball-Reference, DRA, and PWARP courtesy Baseball Prospectus, Remaining Stats from Fangraphs

You’ll have noticed I said “when” he pitches:  Salazar hasn’t approached the 200 inning mark since 2015; the reason is injuries.

Injuries don’t tell the whole story

Since July 2016 Salazar missed time due to shoulder soreness or stiffness then returned only to miss more time with a sore elbow.  Those who’ve read me for the past few years will know how much I dislike pitchers who have shoulder issues. That hasn’t changed.

In this case it appears there’s a pattern to his soreness that can be corrected. His shoulder gets tired and instead of skipping a start he pitches until it hurts too badly to continue. He returns but changes his motion to protect his shoulder making his elbow sore.  That’s something that can be adjusted and managed.

The other thing I noted – the thing that makes me think this works; consistent velocity throughout his major league career.

Salazar earns $5M this year, is under team control for two more years and costs just $1M more this season than the relievers traded. He has post season experience on a team that went to the World Series and he can help Mike Foltynewicz tame his beast.

The Braves haven’t had a pitching coach who successfully helped a pitcher gain control of an arm like Folty’s.  Perhaps a peer with the same level of heat who worked through the same issues can do the job.

That’s a Wrap

Trading for Chris Archer or Michael Fulmer isn’t going to happen right now. I looked for pitchers who makes us better and won’t cost a ridiculous price. Salazar has his faults but all pitchers do.

I considered Danny Duffy but he going to be more expensive to keep and to trade for, pitched just 40 more innings than Salazar in the last three years and his rate stats aren’t as good. I looked for others but found no one as good as Salazar.

Next: He's 20 years, 35 days old and baseball's top prospect

I’ll say that this trade leads to another one in part two of this  piece tomorrow so I ask for some indulgence:  in other words there is a plan.

Tomorrow – left field.