Sometimes our view from afar becomes too staid in our own world of Braves Country. It is therefore helpful to get the perspective from others closer to ‘ground zero’… and today we do just that.
A few days ago, I asked our friends over at MarlinManiac.com a few questions about the Atlanta Braves, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, and what might constitute an acceptable deal for their remaining star players… even come from other teams ‘not from around here’. Here’s what they had to say:
TomahawkTake: Do you think that the comments attributed to Christian Yelich about an “irretrievably broken” relationship with the Marlins actually increase the chances of a deal – to some club – before the season begins?
MarlinManiac: Yes. Keep in mind, Yelich already had one foot out the door around the time of the Winter Meetings when he learned Stanton and Ozuna were going to be traded. In my opinion, this recent development is the behind the scenes tension boiling over into the media at the hand of Yelich’s agent (Joe Longo) to expedite the process of Yelich’s departure, in order to find a new home before spring training starts.
In other words, these comments from his agent are a subtle explanation to the fans and media that “Hey it’s not us [Longo and Yelich]…this is all on management for mishandling a player.”
The response from the Marlins organization will be to deal him to avoid this distraction spilling over into the season.
Who’s In?
TT: Based on your reading of the market, which teams do you believe are:
(a) the “most in” on Yelich or Realmuto, and/or…
(b) actually have prospects of interest to the Marlins that could make a deal happen?
MM: I think the market for Realmuto isn’t as clear yet, nor the asking price. So, I’m going to focus on Yelich for the time being.
Teams I see inquiring about Yelich: Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.
A sleeper team to look out for: Kansas City Royals
From afar, I don’t see the Diamondbacks nor the Dodgers being serious contenders. I don’t like the pieces from the Diamondbacks, and I think the Dodgers’ interest in Yelich is lukewarm, with no interest in paying a potential hefty price. I think the Dodgers are more focused on the 2018-2019 free agent class.
The Royals may be aggressive if they lose Lorenzo Cain, and Yelich is a cheap option for Kansas City – a team that doesn’t historically spend a lot of money.
The Phillies make sense if they’re willing to part with some of their highly ranked prospects, and Joe Giglio wrote a nice piece over at nj.com on what players may be involved:
I like the Blue Jays and Braves as serious contenders.
For the Blue Jays, I think a package of Anthony Alford (OF)/Nate Pearson (RHP), Logan Warmoth (SS)/Ryan Borucki (LHP) and a second-tier prospect can give the Marlins a solid trio in return. (I got these names from baseballamerica.com).
The Braves don’t necessarily have to give up Ronald Acuna, but I think the Marlins must ask for one of Atlanta’s talented righties: Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka or Ian Anderson. If Atlanta can agree to one of those pitchers and adds Austin Riley (3B), Travis Demeritte (INF) or Drew Waters (OF), then the deal is pretty much sealed.
Anybody But Acuna
TT: From my reading of things, it seems that most clubs are not interested in offering their top prospect(s) for either player (Yelich or Realmuto). As a prime example, Ronald Acuna isn’t going anywhere (which actually makes sense – he’s not too dissimilar from Yelich anyway). Do you think that a trade – with anyone – could be done without a Top 10 overall prospect involved?
MM: No. I think this is part of the negotiating process. Teams can claim they won’t give up a top-10 prospect, but Yelich’s value is through the roof for the contract he has. He’s just beginning his prime and his cheap contract will be a steal for a team who is attempting to add pieces without dishing out $300 million dollar contracts.
The Marlins must require at least one top-10 prospect – hopefully two – if they’re to find the right value. Giancarlo Stanton was a salary dump and was picky of what team he wanted to land with. Marcell Ozuna was a pretty fair trade considering he’s coming off a career-high year offensively, and his contract is up after the 2020 season. Yelich is neither of those – and the Marlins need to treat this trade completely different from any others thus far.
So… Prado? Ziegler?
TT: The Marlins should clearly be looking for prospects in exchange for Yelich/Realmuto, but do you think a player-plus-bad-contract swap might still be on the table in some form?
MM: Absolutely not. The Marlins are one of the cheapest franchises in sports, and they want to continue to cut bad contracts in baseball. Dumping Yelich – a cheap contract – further supports the idea of a complete rebuild with no financial restrictions. Miami is trying to trade Yelich, but they aren’t desperate. They can even afford to wait until the All-Star break, if need be.
(Ed. note – this is wholly consistent with what I have been expecting (see also the answer to the prior question): Stanton and Ozuna were dumped more for salary-reduction purposes. At this point, the Marlins are pivoting to ‘rebuild mode’ and looking exclusively for young prospect talent.)
What it Would Take
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TT: Since the Braves aren’t going to offer Acuna, what else from Atlanta do you believe might be reasonably acceptable for one of the Yelich/Realmuto tandem?
MM:
- One of: Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka or Ian Anderson
- One of: Austin Riley (3B), Travis Demeritte (INF) or Drew Waters (OF)
- Throw-in prospect (maybe reliever with decent upside).
TT: What are your expectations? Will either player still be with the club on Opening Day?
MM: I think Yelich gets traded before the start of the season. If I had to put my money on it, I’d say Toronto will make the deal for him. The Blue Jays refuse to go into complete rebuilding mode, and adding an inexpensive piece like Yelich to continue their reloading phase helps them stay afloat in the extremely competitive AL East.
Next: Don't overlook Camargo this season
Many thanks to Brandon Carusillo, co-editor at Marlin Maniac for working through this with us… honestly, if those expectations are consistent with those of the Marlins’ Front Office, I would also expect to see Yelich dealt within the next month or so… with Realmuto following by perhaps the July trading deadline.