With the trade of Evan Longoria to the Giants, the Rays fired the next signal flare of a coming rebuild. That adds to the possible options that the Braves could pursue this Winter.
Let me be clear on this up front: the Atlanta Braves don’t need to go after either of the players I’m suggesting here. They can field an adequate team in 2018 without either and might to threaten the 80-win barrier while waiting for certain youngsters to arrive/mature/thrive/etc.
But with teams like the Yankees, Angels, Astros, Cubs, and Cardinals trying to stockpile talent – never mind other clubs like the Nationals and Dodgers who already have it – we as fans want this club to do better than ‘break-even’ – to look at 85-to-90 wins at a floor instead of having 80 wins as a ceiling.
I don’t know that adding either Chris Archer or Christian Yelich is the answer to get the Braves there – at least not yet. But it would push this team into that direction a lot more quickly than by simply waiting around for the holes to fill themselves and it would convince fans that the time to compete is near.
Additionally, you really can’t make the argument that it’s too soon to make this leap – more on that in a bit.
The unfortunate part here is that there are limitations to what can be pursued via trade, and timing will impact the ‘when’ of any such pursuit.
Right now happens to be the right timing for these particular trade targets.
Choose Wisely
If the Braves were to decide that either Christian Yelich or Chris Archer were worth going after, then it is almost certain that there will be an ‘either/or’ choice involved: “One player from Column A” only.
Why? Because going after both would pretty much require Atlanta to hand over the keys to their entire farm system and allow the Rays and Marlins to have a draft between them to disperse 6-to-10 of our best minor leaguers.
At the same time, the Braves clearly have the resources to make such a trade, should they opt to go there… and more so than most organizations, so they can certainly be a player in trade talks. That much is without question.
So who do you pick? We had some fun yesterday on twitter soliciting opinions on that very topic.
Let’s expand on that here: OF Christian Yelich vs. SP Chris Archer.
The Case for ‘None of the Above’
Ah, a curveball to start.
Doing nothing is still a valid choice here. For right now, that means going into the season with a presumed lineup that includes the following:
- OUTFIELD – Inciarte, Markakis, Acuna (soon) -or- Inciarte, Markakis, Tucker/Adams/Peterson
- ROTATION – Teheran, McCarthy, Foltynewicz, Gohara, Newcomb/Fried/Kazmir
Those new guys – McCarthy and Kazmir are in on 1 year deals…though we’ll have to see if Kazmir has healed up. Of course McCarthy could only manage 93 innings himself last season.
So do the Braves need another starting pitcher? A starting outfielder? Well, both Archer and Yelich would be upgrades, true… but at a serious price of prospects.
So the biggest arguments in favor of this point would be as follows:
- Too expensive/damaging to the farm system
- We’re not ready – these guys would not be the ‘final’ pieces to a playoff contender.
The Case for ‘Get One of Them’
If not now, then when? Next year when the free agent pitching options are more sketchy? Next year when the uber-free agents are out there getting $200+ million deals? Next year when you still need to fill 2-3 holes (including catcher, potentially) and still don’t want to get 2 free agents or make 2 big deals at once?
The ‘one each year’ idea sounds plausible… lessening the impact of getting 2 impact players simultaneously.
Also, there’s the ‘control’ bit:
- Yelich: under contract from 2018-2021, plus a team option in 2022 at quite reasonable rates. So 5 full seasons.
- Archer: under contract from 2018-2019, plus 2 team options for 2020-21. 4 more seasons of control.
That’s pretty significant… especially if you’re going to lament the loss of a premium prospect and the 6 years of control that comes with them (once hitting the majors). So getting 4 or 5 years from an already proven major league player should trump a prospect’s 6 years that may never happen.
Also, if you’re in the “we’re not ready for these guys” crowd, then you’d have to argue that by 2019 or 2020 the Braves would certainly want to be competitive by then… and they’d still have either player we’re talking about today.
Another related point: guess how many players currently on the Braves’ roster that have that much control. The answer is just 2: Freddie Freeman (through 2021) and Ender Inciarte (2022 if you count his contract option).
Christian Yelich
- 26 years old, Bats left; throws right; 6-3/195
- Originally from Thousand Oaks, CA
- can play any OF position
- OPS+ 120 in first 5 seasons in majors – pretty consistent
- Homers jumped in 2016-17
- .290/.369/.432/.800 career slash line with 20.6% strikeouts.
- Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
- Games played since 2014: 144, 126, 155, 156
The argument for Yelich is that he will play every day and solidify the defensive of an outfield (with Inciarte and Acuna) where only line drives might find grass.
He’s been compared to Nick Markakis a lot, and that’s generally fair. However, the power potential (39 HR in 2016-17) could still be there to do more than what Markakis was able to muster.
Baseball-reference has Yelich most closely comp’d to these players:
When adding in the “through age 25” priviso, this is the list:
Carlos May, Delmon Young, and… Nick Markakis round out the top 6.
PROS: Everyday player (specifically when compared to pitchers); steady producers; power showing up in last 2 years; solid defender; now entering prime years.
CONS: Not an MVP-like producer
Chris Archer
- 29 years old; throws right; 6-2/195
- Originally from Raleigh, NC
- #1 level starting pitcher
- ERA+ at 100 or above 5 straight years (peak of 121 in 2015, 100/101 in 2016-17)
- K rate, walk rate still solid, though more hits allowed in 2016-17
- Fastball velocity dropped by 1 in 2016, but was highest ever in 2017 (change in recording method could account for this, though still consistent with regular ~95mph pace over career)
- 200+ innings for 3 years running (194 in 2014). 32+ starts since 2014.
- AL East for his career: line is 3.63 ERA, 3.46FIP (and 3.40 FIP in 2017), 2.9 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 1.214 WHIP.
The knock on Archer is that his ERA jumped in 2016 – up from the 3.30 range to 4.02, and then again to 4.07 in 2017.
It’s well known that I don’t like FIP as a stat, but in this case it is useful for comparison purposes. In 2014, Archer had a 3.33 ERA with a 3.39 FIP. In 2017, he had a 4.07 ERA and 3.40 FIP.
So is he a ‘lucky’ pitcher in 2014 or one whose defense let him down in 2017? It’s hard to make that case: fangraphs rated the 2014 Rays as a worse-fielding group (14th overall) than the 2017 edition (7th overall).
He is striking out more – significantly so: 11.15 per 9 innings vs. 8.00 in 2014 – than he used to, yet was also more hittable in 2017 (.245 batting average against – his highest).
There are other seemingly contradictory numbers: in 2016, his BAA was .235, lower than in 2014 (.239) despite a much better ERA in 2014.
The biggest difference could be the home run rate: 1.34 and 1.21 per nine innings in 2016-17, up from the 0.55 to 1.05 range in 2013-15. Maybe throwing more in the hitting zone both raised his strikeout and homer-against totals?
Who is Archer most similar to?
In general…
Adding in the “through age 28” critiera…
- Halicki and Bradley are 1 and 2 again
- Anibal Sanchez
- Matt Garza
- Erik Hanson
- Jhoulys Chacin
PROS: Consistency (especially of velocity); injury-free seasons; multiple years being “the guy” for Tampa Bay in a rough division. Should thrive in a weak NL East.
CONS: The fear that a pitcher can break down at any moment (though there is no history to suggest that will happen here); getting to that age where pitchers typically have to make some adjustments; higher ERA due to more homers in 2017 (park factors are inconclusive when compared to Al East, though Tropicana Field does rank in a pitcher’s favor).
Bottom Line
I admit I have been talking myself into this as I put this together. The deciding factor is all about that single word “control“.
Sure: you want impact players… all-stars, high producers who lead the league in multiple categories year after year. But those players are exceedingly rare, and either difficult to obtain or difficult to purchase (high-dollar contracts with extended years).
Neither Yelich or Archer are quite “those” kinds of players. They are probably ‘near All-Stars’, though, and that’s not to be ignored. These are the kind of players that you build around. Having them for multiple years is how you compete.
If you want, you can think about this exercise in terms of other players… catcher Realmuto of the Marlins, for instance. If anybody worth something is going to remain with that club, though, it’s probably Realmuto. But much of the same kinds of arguments apply there as well.
This is almost a Coke/Pepsi or Ford/Chevy kind of decision. You’re most probably in good shape regardless of how you proceed.
The twitter responses I received favor Yelich. I tend to concur. But either would be a strong asset to this club we support and love.