Alex Anthopoulos attends his first winter meeting as Atlanta Braves GM with stated priorities of defense and winning. Will he address one of those by adding an outfielder next week?
It’s no secret the Atlanta Braves need defensive help at the corner outfield spots and third base; most think a veteran pitcher is needed as well. Fans and pundits have Ronald Acuna penciled in as right fielder, but who plays left.
That requires moving Nick Markakis or Matt Kemp or both. We’ve talked that to death but after moving Jim Johnson it’s no longer a pipe dream. Ignoring who we have to move (please), who might he focus on acquiring?
Atlanta Braves interested in a redhead
The Yankees made their goal of staying under $197.5M payroll more difficult when they acquired Giancarlo Stanton from Miami for Starlin Castro and two low-level prospects. Aside from financial repercussions, the move added to an already jammed up outfield.
Atlanta Braves
Stanton joins Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury in their outfield pool, so someone – or multiple someones – must find new homes.
Ellsbury’s awful contract is the one they’d love to move, he’s paid like a superstar and plays like a league average, 34-year-old, injury prone outfielder. I expect him to go to the Giants if the Yankees eat half of his money.
Gardner’s quietly been the catalyst of their lineup. They’d like to keep him and his inexpensive contract as their DH and fourth outfielder.
Apparently the Braves view it that way as well; Saturday afternoon we heard that Anthopoulos had already inquired about Clint Frazier.
#Mets, Giants and #Braves all have already asked on the Yankees Clint Frazier, obvious odd man out in the Yankees OF, nothing imminent yet but he’s as good as gone #ScoopCity
— dave (@barstoolWSD) December 9, 2017
Early ask on Frazier is a starting pitcher plus two lower prospects, sources tell @barstoolsports #ScoopCity https://t.co/eSgNR7EXVv
— dave (@barstoolWSD) December 9, 2017
The two low-level prospects are easy enough but the starter I suspect they’ll want is Julio Teheran. Is Frazier worth that ask?
Frazier pro and con
The Indians chose Frazier in the first round of the 2013 draft, fifth overall. Baseball America’s pre-draft scouting report ($) seemed to say he’s really good – not great, but really good.
". . . premium bat speed, solid athleticism. . .fast-twitch athleticism and strength in his hands, wrists and forearms. . .plus-plus raw power . . .compact swing (but lots of) swing and miss . . .above-average runner . . . Frazier should hit enough if he has to move to a corner . . ."
The Loganville, Georgia native moved through the Cleveland system quickly, displaying exactly those strengths and shortcomings. While good, Frazier consistently feel a little short of the hitter you expect as a first round pick.
As the Indians marched towards the 2016 World Series bolstered their bullpen with Andrew Miller sending Frazier, J.P. Feyereisen, Justus Sheffield and Ben Heller to the Yankees as compensation. I can actually see Brain Cashman doing his happy dance after agree to that deal.
AAA
The 2016 season saw the 21-year-old Frazier – five and a half years younger than league average – reach AAA for the first time. He struggled against the older, more experience pitching and didn’t find his groove, posting a .230/.271/.385/.657 line in his 30 games – 129 PA.
The 2017 season saw him once again in AAA but to the higher level of competition adapted better. In his first 120 games Frazier put together a .256/.344/.473/.817 line with a .357 wOBA and +123 wRC; on July first the Yankees called him up.
Downtown goes Frazier
Frazier homered in his big league debut but the swing and miss scouts predicted ventilated a few ballparks. When he did connect however, he hit the ball hard; 17 of his 31 hits were of the extra base variety (four homers, four triples and nine doubles.)
While the highlight real above shows some very nice catches, defensively the only solid metric I have comes from Baseball prospectus. Their FRAA has never considered him a great defender rating him average or slightly below throughout his career. Their overall evaluation concludes he’s a risky, enigmatic talent.
"Future Grades: Hit 45, Power 50, Base running/Speed 55, Glove 50, Arm 55, Overall 50"
"Corner OF with lightning quick bat and mostly average tool set. . Bat speed can generate power, but more of a mistake hitter. . .Consistency in hit tool will need to improve for power to realize. Glove/arm grade out as future average; athleticism makes him capable. Above average speed that aids athleticism. . . . Capitalizing on potential more risky on this enigmatic talent."
Conclusions?
I’ve read two or three reports on this idea. Most consider Teheran an overpay and I agree for a couple of reasons.
Since moving to AAA, Frazier’s BAbip rests at or below .300. That suggests that he is, as one scouting report suggests, a mistake hitter. Lots of mistake hitters have good careers of course and he’s young and could find a way to change that. It’s said he has a ‘football mentality’ ; generally considered a good thing.
His future success rests on solidifying his talent and morphing what appears to be a swing hard and hope you connect attitude, into a swing when you know you can connect.
The other issue is keeping the Braves rotation down to single digit starters this year. Trading Julio removes a guy who takes the ball every fifth day and throws close to 200 innings. He’s also inexpensive at $8.1M this season; any replacement would probably cost as much or more.
That’s a Wrap
I’m not against offering a package based on Joey Wentz and a couple of low-level players for Frazier. It’s possible that simply taking Chase Headley’s contract and offering Wentz would be enough. But what if we wait?
Will this move change the way the Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays view the coming season? Does Stanton’s arrival in New York make them think again about rebuilding?
The Orioles for example, were going to struggle to contend anyway, this makes their chances significantly worse. The same could be said for Toronto and of course Tampa. Will they decide to go full rebuild now?
I’m not interested in paying a huge price in prospects to have Josh Donaldson or Manny Machado for a year. If however, I could get Marcus Stroman or Chris Archer I’d be very interested. AA knows that division well and by now understands where the Braves’ rebuild stands. How he approaches this and other opportunities could determine how the team fares next season