Atlanta Braves Simulated Winter Meetings: league-wide wrap-up

Earlier in this week, I promised a summary of the myriad transactions pulled off by our 30 Faux General Managers.  There were some blockbusters, and at least one fleecing.

I’ve got to be proud of what Fred did for our Atlanta Braves.  He successfully dealt with the biggest issues first:  trading both Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp.  But that was merely the start of a pretty wild week of dealing.

While the ‘official’ portion of this event only lasted from November 27-29, the GMs didn’t need a lot of encouragement to start talking early.  They really wanted to get after it.  That probably helped since a bunch of deals were fairly complicated.

Full disclosure: these are not real deals… they are simulated.  Your mileage may vary; coffee is hot and may cause burns.

As a reminder, the GMs had budget constraints and roster size constraints – just like they would in real life.  Some (Giants) were going through that with a sharp pencil to make sure their dollars would work.  In the end, all of them demonstrably stayed in budget… even one that may have been surprising:  the Marlins.

In going through this, I’m going to separate the transactions into three groups:  Extensions, Signings, and Trades…

But first, let me refer you to the pages in which Fred explained his deals:

• Pre-Start Moves
• Day One
• Day Three (which was really Day 2, kinda)
• Summary
• My observations of the process

Extensions

I was the designated agent acting on behalf of all players.  That came into play in several ways, but it was most obvious in terms of team-offered contract extensions.

My own philosophy is not to ‘chase every dollar’, but to try and get fair value.  So while there was some negotiations, none of these took very long to get together with willing GM partners:

• Blue Jays/Josh Donaldson – last arbitration year bought out.  Total of $140 million over 5 years ($28 m each)
• Giants/Madison Bumgarner – 7 years, $220.5m plus year 8 option for $25 with a $4m buyout.
• Orioles/Manny Machado – 7 years, $204.5m total guaranteed money (counting a $5m buyout on year 8’s $28.5m option)
• White Sox/Jose Abreu – 5 years after buyout of last 2 arb years:  pays $23/22/20/20/20 for $105 million.
• Nationals/Anthony Rendon – 9 years (arb buyouts + 7 more @$25m:  total value $201.5m)
• Rockies/Nolan Arenado – 7 years, $203m ($29m annually) plus a year 8 option with a $5m buyout.  $208m guaranteed.

Lots of third basemen – which should tells us something about the state of the market.  That bodes well for Todd Frazier, Mike Moustakas, and perhaps (down the line) guys like Chase Headley (signed through 2018) and perhaps Jedd Gyorko (through 2019).

The one of these that I questioned was that of Jose Abreu.  He’s currently on the trading block in real life (not really being ‘pushed’, but the White Sox are listening).

While Abreu is a leader on that team, having him locked up for 5 years really doesn’t make a lot of sense.  He’s also about to turn 31 and has already made nearly $40m during his career.  $100 million more is fair, given that he’s still under team control for 2 more seasons and that he’ll be 33 then, but the White Sox are in a rebuild and could use the prospects from dealing him elsewhere.

The Key Signings

Let’s start with the big one or two… which we treated differently (just as MLB teams are having to do) simply because we knew it would lead to other downstream issues.

Shohei Ohtani.

There were 7 teams that posted official offers for him and – in the real world – I have perceived 2 teams with over-and-above interest.  After some considerations, those teams became the finalists.

The Twins went another mile by continuing to add extra International pool space to sweeten the pot.  Seattle countered with culture.  Of significant note, both teams were also locked in a battle to land Yu Darvish as part of a ‘package’ deal.

It was close.  It really was.  In the end, I awarded both players to the Mariners.  Ben Chase (Twins) was not happy about that, and I understand, but I couldn’t cut the bonus baby in half.  Additionally, I do think it’s quite reasonable to think that as Ohtani goes, Darvish will go also.

The Seattle GM offered annual opt-outs after year 2 to Darvish as part of his 5 year/$125m deal and a partial no-trade clause.  That was kind of silly, but it wasn’t the deciding factor, and nor were the almost comical array of incentives being added on.

No – the contracts were close enough between them – both for Ohtani and for Darvish.  The deciding factor was the culture thing.  Seattle has been down this road before, and has hosted multiple Japanese natives.

The Twins have had Tsuyoshi Nishioka (2011-12) … but that’s it unless you count Maikeru Nakamura (2003) who lived in Australia after age 3.  By stark contrast, Seattle has hosted 9 different Japanese natives over the past couple of decades.

Yes, the Yankees have solid recent Japanese players, too (7 in all), but from news reports, I almost get the impression that the team almost expects Ohtani to pursue them, and not the other way ’round.  Seattle and Minnesota are definitely not taking that approach.

Yes – another team could get Ohtani in real-life… but I’m banking that the Seattle history will win the day.

I did give Ben permission to gloat for the entire six years of Ohtani’s team control if Minnesota should happen to win out before Christmas.

 The Other Signings

There are some lowball offers in here (the Yankees Faux-Cashman tried to get C.C. Sabathia for a song and I rejected a minor league offer for Bartolo Colon), but the competitively bid players ended up fairly close to what I believe they will really go for in the next couple of months.

Several big-money deals are here, plus a couple of pickups of Tommy John rehab pitchers that their teams are hoping will still be good once fully recovered in 2019.

Mike Minor saw a lot of interest, as did Pat Neshek and Wade Davis.  If relief pitching and relievers are to be relied upon more heavily (to the detriment of pitching in general, IMO), then you’d better get good ones.

Note: Oakland just gave him 2/$10m in real life ANGELS — SIGNING SP Jason Vargas (2 years/$18m plus club option of $9 for 2020)
ANGELS — SIGNING INF/3B Zack Cozart (4 years/$56m; club option of $14m for 2022) ANGELS — SIGNING Carlos Santana (3 years/$48m, club option for year 4 at another $17m. 10 team NTC, 200K All Star; 100K gold glove.) BLUE JAYS — SIGNING SP John Lackey (1 year, $3m) BLUE JAYS — SIGNING C Nick Hundley (2 years/$7m) BLUE JAYS — SIGNING RP Huston Street (1 year/$1.5m) BLUE JAYS — SIGNING RP Boone Logan (1 year/$2.5m) BLUE JAYS — SIGNING

CF Lorenzo Cain (4 years/$60m; year 5 option for $15m vesting with 250G in 2020-21)

BRAVES

— SIGNING OF Andre Ethier (1 year/$5m; club option for 2019 at same rate) BREWERS — SIGNING RP Anthony Swarzak (2 years/$12m) CARDINALS — SIGNING RP Juan Nicasio (2 years/$18m) CUBS — SIGNING RP Wade Davis (4 years/$60m) CUBS — SIGNING SP Jake Arrieta (4 years/$86m; $1m Cy bonus; 500K if in top 3; $100k all-star) CUBS — SIGNING OF John Jay (2 years/$13m) CUBS — SIGNING C Rene Rivera (1 year/$2m; team option $2m) CUBS — SIGNING UTIL Howie Kendrick (2 years/$10m) DODGERS — SIGNING

RP Brandon Morrow (2 years, $18m; 3rd year $6m player option plus $1m incentives at 40/50 appearances)

DODGERS — SIGNING Charlie Culberson (2 years, $2m) DODGERS — SIGNING SP Doug Fister (1 year/$3m) GIANTS — SIGNING OF Austin Jackson (3 years, $30m, $150K incentive for 450PA) GIANTS — SIGNING 3B Todd Frazier (4 years/$56m) GIANTS — SIGNING OF Carlos Gonzalez (4 years/$40m) GIANTS — SIGNING SP Jhoulys Chacin (4 years/$28m; 300K bonus for 200IP) GIANTS — SIGNING C Chris Ianetta (2 years/$4m) MARINERS — SIGNING SP Shohei Ohtani MARINERS — SIGNING

Free agent SP Yu Darvish (5 years/$133m w/annual opt outs, NTC, paid as 28/27/26.5/26.5/25)

MARINERS — SIGNING

SP Hisashi Iwakuma (minor league deal with monthly opt outs; $1.5m plus 100k per start is in majors)

MARINERS — SIGNING RP Brian Shaw (3 years/$21m, payable as 6/7/8) MARINERS — SIGNING RP Fernando Rodney (1 year/$2m plus $50k per each 7 appearances.) MARLINS — SIGNING RP Tyler Clippard (1 year/$2m) MARLINS — SIGNING C Ryan Hanigan (1 year/$800K) MARLINS — SIGNING OF Daniel Nava (2 years/$3m) MARLINS — SIGNING

SP Lance Lynn (3 years/$33 million ($8/$11/$14), $3 million dollar bonus for 25+ starts (each season).)

METS — SIGNING 1B Logan Morrison (3 years/$30m) NATIONALS — SIGNING RP Pat Neschek (2 years/$12m) NATIONALS — SIGNING

SP Matt Albers (1 year, $3m. Club option for 2nd year at same rate with $500K buyout.)

OAKLAND — SIGNING SP Jaime Garcia (2 years/$14m) OAKLAND — SIGNING RP Sergio Romo (2 years/$6m) OAKLAND — SIGNING CF Peter Bourjos (2 years/$4m) ORIOLES — SIGNING Free agent SP Tyler Chatwood (3 years, $29m) ORIOLES — SIGNING Free agent SP Andrew Cashner (2 years, $18m) PADRES — SIGNING SP Chris Tillman (2 years/$14m) PHILLIES — SIGNING SP Alex Cobb (4 years, $60m) PHILLIES — SIGNING RP Tommy Hunter (2 years/$12m) PHILLIES — SIGNING OF Seth Smith (1 year/$7m) PIRATES — SIGNING Free agent SP Brett Anderson (2 yrs. $10m) PIRATES — SIGNING Free agent RP Glen Perkins (1 year, $6m) RANGERS — SIGNING RP Jake McGee (2 years, $19m) RANGERS — SIGNING RP Steve Cishek (2 years/$10m) RANGERS — SIGNING OF Carlos Gomez (2 years/$25m) RANGERS — SIGNING C Wilin Rosario (2 years/$5m ($2.5/3.0) RAYS — SIGNING 1B/DH Mike Napoli (1 YEAR/$2.5m, plus 500K each for 140 games played and 500PA. All-Star app. nets 50K)

RED SOX — SIGNING

J.D. Martinez (5 years, $117m, paid as 25/25/23/23/21, plus player option of $21m for 2023)

REDS — SIGNING INF Eduardo Nunez (2 years/$14m) REDS — SIGNING SP Scott Feldman (1 year/$3m; $250K bonus for 25 starts) REDS — SIGNING RP Drew Storen (minor league deal; $3m if he makes the majors) ROCKIES — SIGNING C Jonathan Lucroy (2 years/$20m) ROYALS — SIGNING Free agent OF Cameron Maybin (3 years/$36m) ROYALS — SIGNING RP Mike Minor (3 years/$23m) ROYALS — SIGNING SP Henderson Alvarez (2 years/$5m, team option for 2019 of $3m/500K buyout) ROYALS — SIGNING

1B Eric Hosmer (6 years, $100m plus incentive bonuses that increase the base; Full NT Clause)

ROYALS — SIGNING 3B Mike Moustakas (4 years/$70m plus incentives) ROYALS — SIGNING CF Jarrod Dyson (2 years/$6.5m) ROYALS — SIGNING

INF Jose Miguel Fernandez (minor league deal, $100K sign bonus and Spring invite)

TWINS — SIGNING

Free agent RP Tony Watson (2 years, $18m (7.5/8.5) plus $8m option for 2020 w/$2m buyout and closer role)

TWINS — SIGNING

Free agent RP Wily Peralta (1 year, $2.5m; 2 team options of $5m/$8m, 500K buyout in 2019 only)

TWINS — SIGNING

Free agent RP Trevor Rosenthal (2 years, $10m; $2/$6 + $10m option for 2020 and $2m buyout)

TWINS — SIGNING

Free agent SP Michael Pineda (2 years, $10m plus 2 team options $11/$14m w/buyouts of $4m/$1m)

TWINS — SIGNING

SP/RP Wily Peralta (1 year/$2.5m plus 2 options of $5m/$8m and stacking buyouts of $1m). Bunch of incentives.

TWINS — SIGNING IF Danny Espinosa (1 year/$1m plus 500K each for 100/125 starts) TWINS — SIGNING

RP Mike Mikolas (2 years/$7m + 500K buyout for $7m vesting option (375IP) or $6m team option.
2021: 2nd option year: stacking 500K buyout of $10m vesting (550IP) or $7m team option.
And there’s a bunch of other incentives to sort through: $8m guaranteed money over 2 yrs.)

TWINS — SIGNING RP Seung-hwan Oh (1 year/$3m) YANKEES — SIGNING 1B/3B Mark Reynolds (1 year/$4.5m) YANKEES — SIGNING SP Drew Smyly (2 years/$10m) YANKEES — SIGNING C/1B Alex Avila (2 years/$11m with player opt out after 2018) YANKEES — SIGNING SP C.C. Sabathia (1 year/$8m)

Only 2 non-tenders were reported:  Drew Smyly (Seattle) and Chase Whitley (Rays).  Of course the Braves picked up Whitley in real-life that way last night.

Trading Up

This chart – like the last one – is large and complex, so let me hit a few blockbuster highlights:

• Both the Commissioner and I vetoed the single trade attempted for Giancarlo Stanton:  that going to St. Louis.  We didn’t feel there was sufficient value going back to Miami, nor was his no-trade clause dealt with in any way.
• Thus the most significant deal was the one that didn’t happen:  Faux-Miami managed to clear enough payroll to keep Stanton and Ozuna.  Didn’t see that one coming.
• I mentioned one ‘fleecing’ earlier:  sorry Tampa Bay, but that was in your sale of Chris Archer to St. Louis with Alex Colome in exchange for Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, and Carson Kelly.  That’s a total steal for the Cards, and we probably should have vetoed it.  Kelly is the only real value there.
• The Rays then also got 5 players from San Fran for Corey Dickerson, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Alvarado.  Much better, but maybe others need to be dealt since their roster is bulging (indeed they DFA’d and non-tendered some others)
• The last trade was very interesting:  Bentances to the Cubs and Schwarber to the Yankees.
• Fred traded Julio Teheran to the Mariners as part of the Kyle Seager deal, but then Seattle stuck us with seeing him pitch against us by flipping him to Washington.  Thanks.
• Joc Pederson and Yasmany Grandal went to Milwaukee for Ryan Braun.  Grandal was then flipped to the Mets as part of a Stephen Matz deal.
• Matt Adams was sent to Oakland, but then diverted across the bay to San Francisco.

A’s

Trade

Khris Davis to ATL for Matt Adams and Danny Santana

A’s

Giants

Trade

Matt Adams to SF for Matt Moore and $4 mil

Angels

Marlins

Trade

Troy Scribner and Brooks Pounders to MIA for Matin Prado and Dan Strailey

Astros

Reds

Trade

Reds trade Billy Hamilton to HOU for Cionel Perez and Brett Adcock

Astros

Trade

HOU trades IF Jack Mayfield to ATL for OF Isranel Wilson

Orioles

Trade

Braves trade Nick Markakis to BAL for Matthew Grimes

Padres

Trade

SD trades Corey Spangenberg to ATL for Aaron Blair

Tigers

Trade

Braves trade Sean Newcomb, Ian Anderson, Jason Hursh, Matt Wisler, Touki Toussaint to Det for Michael Fulmer

Twins

Trade

Matt Kemp, Brett Cumberland + $23 million over 2 years to Twins for Lewis Thorpe and Tom Hackimer

Astros

Trade

Luke Jackson and Rex Brothers to Hou for Mike Fiers

Brewers

Dodgers

Trade

LAD trades Joc Pederson and Yasmany Grandal to MIL for Ryan Braun

Brewers

Mets

Trade

Brewers send Yasmani Grandal and Marcos Diplan to NYM for Steven Matz

Cardinals

White Sox

Trade

Cards trade Jack Flaherty, Austin Gomber, Tyler O’Neill and Jedd Gyorko to CWS for Jose Abreu (assuming 90% of salary)

Giants

Rangers

Trade

Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon to TEX for Alex Claudio, Yohander Mendez, Pedro Gonzales, and Josh Altman

Indians

Giants

Trade

Cle trade Jason Kipnis to SF for Brandon Belt

Indians

Phillies

Trade

Ryan Merritt to PHI for Tommy Joseph

MARINERS

Braves

Trade

Kyle Seager to ATL for Julio Teheran, Austin Riley, and Joey Wentz

Mariners

Nationals

Trade

Julio Teheran to WAS for Michael Taylor

Mariners

Reds

Trade

Eugenio Suarez and Tyler Rainey to Sea for Luis Liberato, Chris Torres and Ariel Miranda

MARINERS

Rockies

Trade

Mariners trade Nick Vincent and Chase De Jong to COL for Raimel Tapia

Marlins

Cubs

Trade

Brad Ziegler and Justin Nicolino to CHC for Wladimir Gallindo and Jose Paulino

Nationals

Padres

Trade

Drew Ward and Taylor Gushue for Yangervis Solarte

Orioles

Brewers

Trade

Orioles trade Alex Wells and Matthias Dietz for Keon Broxton

Padres

Yankees

Trade

Brad Hand to NYY fo Jorge Guzman and Ronald Torreyes

Phillies

Angels

Trade

Cesar Hernandez, Victor Arano, Bailey Falter to Angels for Parker Bridwell, Jahmai Jones, and 250K in INT Bonus

Phillies

Brewers

Trade

Phillies send Parker Bridwell to MIL for Kyle Wren

Pirates

Marlins

Trade

Pirates trade Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Daniel Hudson to Miami for Dee Gordon, Junichi Tazawa, Chris O’Grady, and Nick Witgren

Pirates

Padres

Trade

Pitt trades Jordy Mercer to SD for Kirby Yates and Robbie Erlin

Pirates

Phillies

Trade

Steven Brault to Phillies for Cameron Rupp

Pirates

Reds

Trade

Calvin Mitchell and Max Kranic to CIN for Devin Messaraco and $7 million

Rays

Cardinals

Trade

Rays trade Alex Colome and Chris Archer to STL for Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Carson Kelly

Rays

Giants

Trade

Rays trade Corey Dickerson, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Alvarado to SF for Joe Panik, Hunter Strickland, Austin Slater, Steven Okrent, Kevin Beltre

Rays Reds Trade Rays trade Brad Miller to CIN for Ariel Miranda Rockies Marlins Trade Justin Lawerence and James Farris to MIA for Daniel Hudson and Tomas Telis Royals Brewers Trade Royals trade Jack Lopez for Johnny Davis (minor league deal) Tigers Nationals Trade

Tigers trade Nick Castellanos to WAS for Andrew Stevenson, Yasel Antuna, and Kelvin Gutierrez

Twins Indians Trade Twins trade Ryan Pressley to CLE for Shawn Armstrong Twins Orioles Trade Kyle Gibson to BAL for Austin Wynns, Joe Johnson and $500K of INT Bonus Twins Rangers Trade Trevor May, Kenny Vargas and Nick Anderson for Joey Gallo Yankees Cubs Trade Dellin Bentances to Cubs for Kyle Schwarber

That’s it… all of the transactions aside from a few DFA’s that I left off the log.

Next: Meanwhile, back at the Front Office

It was a tiring 3 days for a lot of us… there was some hard work done.  But it was fun, and I hope the real McCoy turns out to be similarly interesting in another week-plus.