I consider the Atlanta Braves deals at the winter meetings simulation a success. We didn’t get everything we wanted but we did pretty good.
The final day was anticlimactic and disappointing for your simulated Atlanta Braves gm in a few ways. I had to be offline much of the day and that may have hurt in the end. I retrenched slightly so it wasn’t a total flop but measured against prior work it was just okay.
Mostly the day featured a futile search for final pieces. Here’s what happened.
The bullpen piece
I offered Brian Shaw two years, $14M with a third year option at $8M. When I went offline the offer looked like winning but while I was away from the hotline the Mariners offered three years and $33m.
I like Brian Shaw and felt he was the right piece but even had a been online I probably would not have given him the third year.
Lets be honest, the meaning of option years on short contracts is simple, They say, ‘I think you’re great – not great enough to give you that year, but really good.’ Relief pitchers in particular have a short shelf life and while the third year would have been relatively inexpensive it’s also likely to be wasted dollars.
That left me with a hole in the bullpen where I planned to put an experienced arm. By the time I contacted the agents (looked at my spreadsheets) all of the big names were gone.
I added Robbie Ross ( he had an awful 2017) and Kevin Siegrist (not his best year) on minor league contracts with an invite.
In the end no one wanted to deal any more – I can empathize it takes a lot of time – and I was left to fill the hole internally.
The Pen Today
The bullpen today sets up like this.
- Arodys Vizcaino (R) CL
- Jose Ramirez (R)
- A.J. Minter (L)
- Sam Freeman (L)
- Dan Winkler (R)
- Akeel Morris (R)
- Lucas Sims (R)
It doesn’t water the eyes but it does look solid. I see Sims as moving into a Wade Davis role. His stuff plays up in relief and while he doesn’t throw a hundred, if he locates it he can be very effective. That’s why I didn’t trade him.
The roster
The simulated roster has only 38 players. I added Dirks, Demeritte and Webb because a) we needed more players and b) I didn’t understand Dirks being left off anyway. He had one outing in September where gave up four runs in three innings. Remove that appearance and this is what you have.
| ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | WHIP | Str/Pit |
| 3.25 | 10.21 | 2.78 | 3.67 | 1.16 | 65.9% |
Dirks averages 10+ Ks / 9IP since turning pro.; I suspect a lot of teams would like a reliever who can do that. Webb was a similar case and Demeritte is really the only bat close to ready. He may not be great but he’s essentially free. I digress.
There are two vacancies on the 40 man, I’ll simulate filling those later.
| 25 Man (Simulated) | (Rest of the 40-man) Simulated |
| Ender Inciarte | Mauricio Cabrera |
| Ozzie Albies | Jesse Biddle |
| Freddie Freeman | Jacob Lindgren |
| Khris Davis | Jacob Webb |
| Ronald Acuna | Caleb Dirks |
| Tyler Flowers | Grant Dayton |
| Kyle Seager | Adam McCreery |
| Dansby Swanson | Ricardo Sanchez |
| Kurt Suzuki | Josh Ravin |
| Lane Adams | Jack Mayfield |
| Cory Spangenberg | Rio Ruiz |
| Johan Camargo | Travis Demeritte |
| Andre Ethier | Adonis Garcia |
| Michael Fulmer | PTBNL |
| Luiz Gohara | PTBNL |
| Mike Foltynewicz | |
| Mike Fiers | |
| Max Fried | |
| Arodys Vizcaino | |
| Jose Ramirez | |
| A.J. Minter | |
| Akeel Morris | |
| Sam Freeman | |
| Dan Winkler | |
| Lucas Sims |
The payroll for the simulation as shown, including all 38 players, $3.5M for Johnson and $9M for Kemp comes to $103.8M. The three biggest paychecks got to Freeman ($21.36M), Seager ($19.5M) and Davis ($11.1M).
Then comes Ethier ($5M), Inciarte ($4.7), Flowers ($4M), Vizcaino ($3.7M), Suzuki ($3.5M), and Spangenberg ($2M). The rest are considered minimum pay players unless they came with a few extra thousand or I gave them a couple of thousand for Christmas.
That a Wrap
I set out to fill the holes in the lineup; send AAA players back to AAA and bench players back to the bench where they do their best work. I outrighted Jace Peterson off the 40 man with the intention of sending him to Gwinnett.
I have not yet designated Garcia for assignment. It costs nothing to have him there and it only takes a few seconds when I need the slot.
Next I wanted to reshape the rotation to create a team that would contend next season. I think that worked.
Finally I wanted to restructure the bullpen and add a big piece. I didn’t get the big piece I wanted but it didn’t turn out badly.
All of these things had to be done – in my view – without blowing up payroll while retaining as many good prospects as possible. I feel I succeeded as well as possible considering deals some of the other GMs agreed to . I met my goals pretty well and didn’t do anything I’ll regret next week or next year.