One of the big lineup questions for the Atlanta Braves in 2018 is who plays third base. Internal options tease us but none look ready. That leaves the marketplace ; finding a solution there won’t be easy.
A quartet of Atlanta Braves third basemen plus sundry ‘now and then’ players produced an offensively anemic .244/.297/.358/.655 line last season. They finished 29th ahead of only the worst in baseball Giants. It’s time to stop waiting and find a full-time, non-platoon third baseman.
Could one of the internal options suddenly emerge next spring? Of course. However, the 2018 Braves cannot afford to rely on ‘wait and see’ as a viable plan .
Last week Alan looked the two internal candidates, I’m not going to rehash that in-depth. I enjoy watching Johan Camargo but at this point he’s a utility man and Rio Ruiz a platoon player. Neither looks like a solution.
Platoons work in some instances – our catching last year for example – when both halves of the platoon are strong; right now our third base options aren’t.
Atlanta Braves hot corner vacancy – free agents
Mike Moustakas leads the third base free agent market followed at a considerable distance by Todd Frazier. More than one team will be in hard on Moustakas – the Giants and Mets for example – making him and expensive addition. The Cardinals are said to be trying to trade for Josh Donaldson but Toronto repeatedly said he’s not available. I believe the Jays will try to extend the ‘bringer of rain’ and only trade him if that fails.
If Donaldson stays in Toronto the Cardinals will sign Moustakas. If the Jays trade Donaldson, they will play on Moustakas. Either way I doubt he lands in Atlanta and that wouldn’t break my heart.
Todd Frazier
Todd Frazier’s bat deteriorated after he left Cincinnati and his traditional slash line isn’t pretty. That said in his last two seasons he posted wOBA – wRC+ of .326 – 104 and .335 –108. BP backs that up by giving him a true average TAv of .267 and .268 ; that’s 60 and 46 points higher respectively than his traditional BA.
UZR and DRS always liked Frazier while BP wasn’t as enamored with his work at third. This year BP saw him more favorably with the glove bringing all defensive metrics into agreement.
As a Yankee, Frazier’s been a spark that helped them to the post season. The Yankees prefer Frazier over Headley and he likes New York. that combination makes a Yankee contract almost a certainty as protection for a delayed Gleyber Torres return and to backup Greg Bird at first.
Frazier plays at 32 next season and will ask for a four or five-year deal worth 48-60M. If he would sign for fewer years he could fit but with Riley two years at most away that seems a little rich.
Atlanta Braves hot corner vacancy – trades
The trade market is always hard to judge but a couple of teams look like a match; first, St Louis.
The Cardinals clearly want a middle of the order bat. A crowded outfield makes a player like Justin Upton – should he opt out – a likely target. Multiple reports say the Cardinals keep calling the Jays about Donaldson and Toronto keeps saying no. That makes Moustakas a perfect fit and their current third baseman expendable.
Jedd Gyorko
Obtaining either of those players makes Jedd Gyorko excess to requirements and the Cardinals could shop him. Since moving to the Cardinals in a trade no one understood, Gyorko’s become the player the Padres expected when they extended him early in his career.
Season
BB%
K%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
2016 8.4% 21.9% .243 .306 .495 .801 2017 9.8% 21.8% .272 .341 .472 .813
wOBA
fWAR
2016 .292 .244 .339 112 2.3 3.4 2017 .287 .312 .344 112 2.5 4.1
UZR
2016 2 1.7 4.9 2017 16 2.6 12.9
Statistics courtesy Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus
The contract that once made everyone shudder now looks very team friendly, even if the Padres weren’t paying part of it. That they are makes Gyorko look downright cheap.
Next season he earns $9M and the Padres pay $2.5M while in 2019 he earns $13M and the Padres pay $3M. The $13M contract option year – with $1M buyout – even looks a bargain.
There’s something like $23M in excess value in his contract with a projected production similar to his last two years. That means they won’t give Gyorko away.
The deal
The Cardinals also seek to rebuild their bullpen and everyone needs pitching. Perhaps a package of Jason Hursh, Akeel Morris, Ricardo Sanchez and Travis Demeritte would net Gyorko and a PTBNL.
An inventive GM could ask for – recently rumored available – Randal Grichuk as well. Adding Lucas Sims and a low-level PTBNL might be enough to make the deal work.
Gyorko’s contract provides a productive third baseman while allowing Austin Riley to arrive in his own time. It also protects the Braves in the event Riley hits a bump in the road or the Braves move him to left field.
Troy Tulowitzki
I’ve run this up the flag pole before and was verbally castigated for it. It does however make a great deal of sense for both Troy Tulowitzki and the Braves.
Tulo’s injuries kept him from attaining superstar status. When played he remained an offensive force; until he moved to Canada. Playing north of the border, Tulo went from a 170 wRC+ player to a 101 wRC+ player instantly and never bounced back. Some of that was leaving Coors field but I believe the main reasons are artificial turf and he never became comfortable in Toronto and the AL.
Atlanta Braves
In Colorado, Tulo’s injuries centered on his legs with quad and groin catching most of the pain. The move to artificial turf made such injuries more likely. This season was particularly bad; an April hamstring strain meant a 34-day DL stint and in July he tore ligaments in his right ankle. That ended his season with 66 games played and 78 wRC+.
Why move Tulo
Even though his productivity dropped overall in the AL – a .250/.313/.414/.727 line – he continued to beat up NL pitching. Small sample sized caveat noted, his interleague line – .272/.319/.568/.887 – remained significantly better.
He plays at 33 next season; history and age suggest a move to third base would extend his career and increase his productivity. The Jays recognize that and tried Josh Donaldson at SS late in the year. They even indicated they might use him there permanently next season. Presumably that would move Tulo to third but, he’d still be on turf 81 games a year.
The deal
Speaking of Donaldson, the Jays would love to extend him. Donaldson thrived in Toronto and the fans love him. That extension will however cost a lot of money. Moving even half of Tulo’s money allows the Jays to extend Donaldson and add a free agent like Zack Cozart at SS.
In return the Braves get three years of a right hand hitting power bat and a better than average third baseman.
Tulo’s contract guarantees $58M over the next three years; $20M, $20m, $14M and a $4 buyout or $15M option. The Braves would ask Toronto to keep a chunk of money. The Jays would start with ridiculous asks but they know this move is better for them in the long-term.
Negotiating down to something reasonable should be possible. Reinforcements for their shaky bullpen like Sims, Jason Hursh, Mauricio Cabrera and Morris along with a bat to dream on like Demeritte could find get Tulo and $7M a year in Atlanta in 2018.
Others?
I looked hard for a third option. Riley looks as good Colorado’s Ryan McMahon if a year behind him. Astros’ prospect Colin Moran ranks right alongside Riley although he could be ready next year but that’s not certain.
The Yankees will move Chase Headley if they can. A return to the NL and being in his walk year might encourage better production. His $13M contract isn’t awful and he was just about worth that this season. The Yankees wouldn’t want much in return. While he’s not a middle of the order bat, he might be a good bridge to Riley. . . If Riley arrives in 2018 as planned.
After acquiring Jeimer Candelario from the Cubs, the Tigers moved Nick Castellanos to the outfield because of his awful defense at third. Maikel Franco’s move to the outfield could come next year for the same reason. Those two are not options.
The Braves could look at a healthy Martin Prado as a stabilizing force, mentor for young players and someone the fans would again embrace. I love the presence of Prado but he plays at 34 and the contract lasts through 2019 so the Marlins would have to eat at least $10-$12M. In return they get someone like Danny Santana if the Braves don’t nontender him.
That’s a Wrap
A black hole opened at third base when Chipper Jones retired; that hole must be plugged now. Now begins after MLB announces punishment for the various and sundry rules violations that allegedly took place.
The new GM – whoever he or she may be – will want to do something positive for the franchise. Nothing is more positive than a winning team and a settled infield is essential to that end.
Next: Jacob is back and healthy
I’m hoping for a creative front office that moves forward without going off the deep end and emptying the farm system for immediate but short-lived success.
Adding Gyorko at third base settles the hot corner for three years and add as solid, inexpensive bat to the lineup. That can’t be bad.