Matt Kemp joined the Atlanta Braves in August 2016 and played well enough to give fans hope he’s settle in as their four hole hitter. In spite of a hot start this year, injuries quickly dashed that hope.
The specter of Matt Kemp in left field to start 2018 is enough to send Atlanta Braves fans into fits of despair. Ideally they’ll trade him but that won’t be easy.
Trading Matt Kemp
At 33 years old a healthy Matt Kemp would never be traded. Even with diminished speed and a slowing bat he could be penciled in for 30 home runs and 100 RBI with above average defense. The problem is, Kemp wasn’t healthy in 2017 and the injuries he suffered are likely to recur.
Aside from two arthritic hips, he’s had hamstring issues off and on since 2012 in every season except 2016, shoulder issues in 2013 that appeared briefly in 2015, and ankle injury that eventually led to surgery in 2013.
This season’s woes
This year it was his hamstrings that limited him to 115 games. While his old-fashioned batting line looks good – 294PA, 19 homers, 64 RBI and a .276/.318/.463/.781 slash- most of his good work was done in the first half before the hammy gave him the whammy.
| Half | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ |
| 1st | .293 | .340 | .486 | .826 | .280 | .347 | 113 |
| 2nd | .243 | .272 | .417 | .688 | .174 | .288 | 74 |
(Statistics courtesy Fangraphs)
He finished with the league lead for grounding into double plays – 25 – one more than DJ LeMahieu in spite of 171 fewer AB. His 25 was bad enough for second in MLB behind Albert Pujols but in 155 fewer AB.
His defense was nothing to write home about before his injury but his bat carried it. After the injury it was awful, it’s hard to play the field when the legs don’t work well.
The other issue is his contract; Kemp is owed $43.5M through 2019. The Padres will pay 3.5M of that each year but it’s still a $36.5M commitment for a player who should be a DH. It’s hard to sell that kind of package straight up so the consensus is that the Braves will have to pay a lot of that money. That may be correct but there may be a way to ease the pain.
Let’s trade problems
In 2014 the Red Sox signed Cuban defector Rusney Castillo as an international free agent to a seven year $72M deal . He started well posting a .333/.400/.528/.928 line including two homers which translated to a .409 wOBA and 162 wRC+.
The following season he appeared in 80 games, hit five home runs and slumped to .253/.288/.359/.647, with a .283 wOBA and 73 wRC+ so he was demoted to AAA.
He struggled in AAA for two years while in Boston a new front office team arrived. along with the outfield of the future; Mookie Betts. Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi. Two of Cherrington’s other signings however had their issues.
Ben’s bad deals
Pablo Sandoval played badly, had surgery and the Sox ultimately ate his contract. Hanely settled in at first base until David Ortiz left when he took over as DH. Ramirez posted a nice line but a shoulder issue limited him to 133 games.
This season the Sox lineup lacked the pop it used to have. They finished sixth in runs scored but dead last in home runs with 168. Apropos of nothing, the Braves had 165.
Meanwhile at Pawtucket, Castillo ran roughshod over AAA pitching. In 347 AB he slashed .314/.350/.507/.857, 15 homers, 22 doubles, a .378 wOBA and 138 wRC+.
He plays a decent outfield defense as well posting 15 DRS in 614 outfield innings in Boston.
Why didn’t Boston call him up? They had a full outfield, a full roster and no payroll room. Boston finished this season with $222.5M and a luxury tax bill for the third straight year; Castillo’s 11.7M would have hurt them pretty badly.
The deal
Clearly the Red Sox can’t take the whole Kemp deal but at 30 years old, Castillo seems to be an expensive minor league bauble. He’s also a hangover from the previous regime and for some reason GM’s hate that.
The straight up deal would be Kemp plus $6.5M for Castillo and that wouldn’t be awful, at least we’d have a good defensive outfielder who can hit a bit. The Red Sox are always looking for pitching as well so adding a low-cost arm like Lucas Sims could be enticing. The deal would be Kemp, Sims and Mauricio Cabrera and 3.5M for Castillo.
The Red Sox would move Hanley back to first base and Kemp would DH. In that park with healthy legs he’d hit 35 homers easily, maybe more.
That’s A Wrap
Moving Kemp somewhere for something is a priority. I believe we can empty the right field spot as well but that’s another post so stay tuned.
Castillo appears a good player and even if he’s just league average his contract is easier to move than Kemp’s.
There are obviously issues with the trade not the least of which are the current front office mess and having our former GM in the Boston front office.
When we write these thing we understand that getting struck by lightning is more likely than getting one of these right. Feel free to disagree but be nice.