Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: the NL East is strange

In the news this week, there’s been a bunch of double-take stories about our rivals in the NL East… news that’s worthy of a comment or two.

If all of this is to be believed, then the Atlanta Braves might not have to worry about some of their competition in the division for a while.  Teams continue to make questionable decisions, implode on their own accord, and even continue buying medical care in bulk.

Let’s start with the latter.

The Mets

David Wright To Undergo Shoulder Surgery; T.J. Rivera To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

• Steven Matz
• Noah Syndergaard
• Zack Wheeler
• Yoesnis Cespedes
• Michael Conforto

All on the DL.  All out for the rest of the year.  But there’s more, as we hear from MLBTR:

"The Mets made another series of medical updates today, with the most significant news of the bunch being that infielders David Wright and T.J. Rivera will undergo surgery. Wright will have his right rotator cuff repaired, while Rivera will undergo Tommy John surgery to repair the partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow (with which he was diagnosed in late July)."

But there’s more:  Josh Edgin (knee) is likely done, Michael Conforto could be done for 2018 after he has surgery to repair his left shoulder.  So that’s four (4) Mets under the knife this week.

In the Most Mets Thing Ever, Wilmer Flores broke his own nose when fouling off a pitch.  That alone pretty much describes the crazy-bad season the Mets have had.

Yet what will this team do in 2018?  What can they do?  They don’t spend money, but they also have a lot of talent that can’t seem to stay on the field.

Their pitchers will probably start the year healthy, at least, but their fans may have to cringe through another year as they will need outfield help, (probably) pitching help, and infield help (having traded away Neil Walker, Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and could very well decline Asdrubal Cabrera’s option).

The Marlins

The Marlins new owners are already setting the stage for payroll cutting.  So much so that Jorge Mas is speaking out to declare that this would not have been the case if he had won the bidding.

Well, you should have bid a bit more then, Jorge, for when you said ‘No mas’, that ended your right to have a say in the matter.

For sure, that means Giancarlo Stanton will be offered up (though note that he has veto power over any trade proposal).

Beyond that, though, their road will be difficult, since their higher-priced assets are going to be difficult to sell.  Either they will have to go for pennies on the dollar, or else the Marlins will have to dig deep into a serious rebuild… again.

Those bad contracts?

• Stanton… a couple hundred million for the next decade unless he opts out after 2020, which would be … surprising.
• Wei-Yin Chen – $52 million more through 2020
• Martin Prado – $28.5 million more through 2019
• Dee Gordon – $38.9 million through 2020 (less horrible than most)
• Edinson Volquez – $13 million in 2018
• Brad Zigler – $9 million in 2018
• Junichi Tazawa – $7 million in 2018

The “good” contract they have is that for Christian Yelich:  $43.25 million more through 2021. But he’s also their best trade chip other than catcher J.T. Realmuto

The big jumps in expenses that are about to happen are for Marcel Ozuna (second arbitration year, Scott Boras client) and Stanton (salary jumps up $10 million to $25 million).

So at this point, they already have $95 million committed for 2018, with Ozuna and a few others likely to get healthy bumps via arbitration.  Realmuto will have his first arb year, too.

The new owners would prefer to be in the immediate neighborhood of $55 million, since the franchise is losing $50 million annually at this point.

They think there is at least one team out there willing to help them out with a solid chunk of Stanton’s contract.  More on that in a minute.

But will the Marlins be viable in 2018?  Not a chance.

The Phillies

I still haven’t figured out whether the Phillies have an actual plan with their own rebuild.

The only thing that seems to make any sense whatsoever to me is that they might be willing to simply buy their way out of baseball purgatory.  Seems their kids aren’t doing nearly as well as hoped.

The Phils Opening Day payroll this season was a tick above $100 million.  Their contractual obligations for 2018?  $5.85 million.  That’s it.

Meanwhile, their payroll has been as high as $177.7 million (2014), so you know the franchise has bucks available to spend.

One thought they’ve expressed out loud has been Giancarlo Stanton.  Certainly, they could afford him, though I have no idea what prospects the Fish would demand in return.

The Phillies really need him… and that park would be great for his hitting.  Except they need a lot more to go with him.

But Stanton really doesn’t need the Phillies… unless he simply wants to escape Miami for 3 years and opt out of the deal just when the Phillies might be getting better.

So when the Marlins say that there is a team they think will be able to get Stanton from them, it’s not the Phils they are referring to:  it’s actually the Giants.  The Phillies are relegated to also having “reached out” to the Marlins… along with the Cardinals and Rangers.

(No, I have no idea how the Giants can pull this off since their farm system is pretty well depleted, but that’s their problem).

So while they are ‘involved’ in the process, I really can’t see Stanton accepting a trade to the Phillies.

Which leaves them…pretty much on the street corner with a hat in hand and a sign reading “Will Pay for Free Agents”.

ARLINGTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 03: Adrian Beltre #29 of the Texas Rangers stands in the dugout before the game agaisnt the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 3, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard W. Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Rangers Tonight

More from Tomahawk Take

• Atlanta Braves 2012 Prospect Review: Joey Terdoslavich
• Braves News: Braves sign Fuentes, Andruw’s HOF candidacy, more
• The Weakest Braves Homers Since 2015
• Atlanta Braves Sign Joshua Fuentes to Minor League Deal
• Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves

Texas – now 4th in their division and barely hanging on to relevancy at 68-68 (3 back of the Wild Card, but with 4 teams to pass) come into Atlanta tonight for a 3-game set… without the injured Adrian Beltre.

Atlanta is now 60-75, and only has to win 3 more to avoid 100 losses.  They are still 8th worst in baseball, 1 game behind the Padres for 9th; 2½ ahead of the Mets/A’s/Tigers (5th-7th worst).

27 games remain:

• 2016 ended at 68-93.  9-18 beats that.
• 2015 ended at 67-95.  8-19 beats that.
• 2014 ended at 79-83.  20-7 beats that.

But Sunday afternoon was fun to watch.  We’ve talked about Fried.  We’ve talked about the Kids.  It was a nice win to avoid the season sweep, but also just to get a break from the losing trend.

Here’s that box from yesterday:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Next: Okay, now they've gone too far...

It will be R.A. Dickey tonight, followed by Julio Teheran and Sean Newcomb against the Rangers this week, all games at 7:35pm